No rush, lads
Welsh Labour have just issued a joint statement in the name of Chair, Garry Owen, First Minister Rhodri Morgan and the Secretary of State, Peter Hain and in response to Sir Emyr Jones Parry's report.
Keep reading until the last five crucial words:
1. We welcome the detailed report by the All Wales Convention and reaffirm Welsh Labour's commitment to primary legislative powers for the Welsh Assembly (under Part 4 of the 2006 Act), and to campaign for these in a succsessful referendum.
2. Because a 'No' vote in a referendum could set back devolution for several decades, triggering the referendum process needs to be based on a firm prospect that public opinion is ready to respond positively in the referendum.
3. Our internal policy process has already begun: Welsh Labour's Welsh Joint Policy Committee has met, prioritised the need to campaign for a General Election victory, and agreed to start considering the All Wales Convention report in detail as a prelude to stepping-up wider Party consultation with AMs and MPs, councillors, trade unionists and members as soon as the General Election is over.
There it is: Welsh Labour will not make a move to consider when to hold a referendum until the other side of a General Election.
There's nothing woolly in their statement. It's not a case of priorities or emphasis. It's blunt and to the point. The party won't start to consult on issues surrounding the timing of a referendum until beyond the General Election.
And bang goes the plan of those - perhaps you heard the Presiding Officer on last week's Dragon's Eye - who wanted a vote in the Assembly that would trigger the referendum process this side of the election. That would, went the story, allow the Welsh Secretary the 120 days he has to consider the issue while the parties got on with the job of fighting an election and the Yes and No campaigns got on with the job of getting themselves going.
But without Labour support?
How will Plaid respond? Wasn't Labour's ability to help deliver a referendum 'on or before 2011' Plaid's main motivation for saying no to the rainbow and yes to a deal with Labour?
This morning Conservative leader Nick Bourne emphasised he was relaxed about having that vote after a General Election. A referendum could still be held in Autumn 2010. Bear in mind, he added, that a Conservative Welsh Secretary wouldn't use the full 120 days to consider the matter. It would be a matter of weeks, so triggering a referendum this side or that of an election wasn't such a big deal.
What will Rhodri Morgan's possible successors feel? Relief that their hands have been tied - or frustration?
Kirsty Williams has made the views of the Liberal Democrats clear enough - no messing, go for an early referendum.
Next question: who sits on Labour's Welsh Joint Policy Committee? They thought you might ask.
The Welsh Joint Policy Committee (WJPC) is a 21 member body that is responsible, with the Wales Policy Forum, for overseeing policy matters within the competence of the National Assembly for Wales for submission to the Annual Welsh Labour Conference. All sectors of Welsh Labour are represented on the WJPC including:
Chair of the Wales Policy Forum,
3 x Vice-Chairs (one from each of the following: Welsh PLP, NALP and WLGA Labour Group),
4 x CLP reps (elected by CLP reps to Welsh Policy Forum),
4 x affiliated organisations reps (elected by affiliated organisation reps to Welsh Policy Forum),
4 x Labour Assembly Government Ministers (First Minister + 3 others),
2 x Wales Office Ministers (Secretary of State plus Minister),
2 x Welsh Executive Committee representatives (elected by WEC),
1 x NPF Wales rep (elected by representatives to the NPF).
The MEP is ex-officio member of the WJPC.
Their priority? Winning a General Election.
Anything beyond that? Long grass?
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~36~RS~)
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I am not a Conservative but I am hoping the promise by David Cameron to put an end to serfdom will open up public institutions to proper scrutiny of standards and value for money. We cannot rely upon Welsh Conservatives to do the job for us.
Unless of course we see the emergence of an independent Labour not Llafur party which I suggest would be very popular.
Once people are fully aware of what has been going on then we will see a rise in the No vote and as some have already stated on this blog there will be No referendum!
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I am not that surprised, and not that concerned to be honest. There would have been a case for Labour pushing this if Conservatives were opposing it, but as they now appear to be 'pro-Welsh' there is no potential advantage for Welsh Labour and quite a few potential bananna skins.
So Labour get clobbered at Westminster in May, and immediately afterwards trigger the Senedd debate and vote, to be held before the Summer half-term recess on 31 May.
In the meantime, there is nothing to stop the civils servants quietly preparing position papers regarding the wording of the question and potential dates. So the Secretary of State (Conservative) will not need his/her full 120 days and can proceed post-haste.
My money is still on an October referendum.
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Those who argue for an October referendum seem to be placing all their hopes on a Tory win in next year's UK election. In this scenario a 'yes' vote is a certainty as Welsh voters decide to protect Wales from the Eton Taliban. The only problem with this is that if the Tories do win many Welsh voters will have voted Tory as they did in 1979. Labour will be more interested in analysing the defeat and selecting a party leader by the time of the party conference in September of 2010. For many in the Labour party campaigning for a yes vote in the autumn of 2010 will be the last thing on their mind. I also can't see a new Tory government rushing through a referendum act when their main concern will be to ensure that any emergency budget measures are implemented. For the Assembly cabinet the main issue should be not lawmaking powers but how to cope with the cuts in the Assembly's budget caused by the emergency budget. The only people will a problem with this scenario of no referendum before 2011 are Plaid's leadership who sold the coalition to party members on the premise of a referendum before the next Assembly elction. Labour to use a rugby metaphor have 'kicked the problme to touch'.
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Neocromwellian ..........
..... writing from the long grass there is a case to begin a long march, much like Mao Zedong, but with democracy in mind.
Conservatives and Labour, possibly with Liberal Democrats, could form an alliance in pursuit of democracy, I discounted Plaid because of its long term aim of total destruction; politicians don't seem to like like the electorate getting involved, it is probably to do with the politicians "I know best" attitude towards the little people. Such an alliance could counter the insidious creep of Nationalism in Wales.
Your "proper scrutiny of standards", does this relate to education ? I think DC would be very interested in aspects of Welsh life that has definitely not benefited from Devolution.
Any the Secretary of State [whatever flavour] will definitely need his/her full 120 days, so much to do, so much to scrutinise, so many coalition effects to vomit over.
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3 It is not a hope of a Tory win - it is the recognition of the inevitable. While Conservatives might (or might not) struggle to get an absolute majority, they will clearly be the largest party, and Labour are in for a severe hiding.
If Welsh Labour try and deny a referendum they look like losing power in Cardiff before they lose it in Westminster!!!!
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#4 TheStonemason
One opinion poll maybe a fluke but
The General Election Is Not Yet Decided
"The Ipsos MORI survey for the Observer, which will cause alarm in Tory ranks and boost Labour's hope of performing a "great escape", puts the Conservatives on 37%, only six points ahead of Labour on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are on 17%."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/nov/22/tory-lead-falls-mori-poll
A Conservative, Labour and possibly LibDem would make a good coalition particularly as I think there will be a hung Parliament that will increase scrutiny into standards and value for money.
Hopefully laws that have been introduced by the assembly to prevent us serfs from doing that will be repealed. Giving more powers to an assembly to conceal more of their incompetence is not a priority.
You are right "proper scrutiny of Standards" does relate to education. The reason why I say that is because a number of institutions are being scrutinised from England! You have to get passed the assembly and WAG to bring maladminstration to light.
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