If you become leader ...
Tonight the three Labour leadership candidates will line up at lecterns and prepare to take questions from an invited audience. They must be getting used to each other's company though I doubt, after the weekend, whether anyone's suggested a leadership hustings car-share scheme.
Monday evening? Must be Swansea and the latest official debate organised by the Labour party.
The three hopefuls have already faced official hustings in Rhyl, Narberth and Newport. On Thursday it's Cardiff and the final chance for Labour members with a polling card/s in their pocket to make up their minds. Who should take over from Rhodri Morgan?
People are waking up to Huw Lewis as a man with ideas that can't be ignored say his fans, especially young voters. He's not persuading people he can deliver, so can't be trusted with a vote in such a crucial election, say his detractors.
Edwina Hart's fans say she cuts a swathe through the two men and comes across as a real person. Her critics say she's abrasive and then some, calling big business "our class enemy", the Western Mail a "Tory rag" and claiming BBC Wales is "run by Plaid Cymru".
Carwyn Jones has been coming across as assured and charismatic, say his supporters; another bland politician in a suit say his detractors.
Which prominent Labour politician is seen glad-handing which candidate is noted, analysed and put out there for commentators to think on. Which prominent Labour politician is seen resolutely avoiding glad-handing which candidate is put out there even more quickly. You and I, though, are not there to witness it all unfolding.
The three candidates have already debated online - take a look if you haven't already yet seen it.
But later this week the ante will be, as they say, well and truly upped. The three leadership candidates will not only answer questions in front of an audience; they'll face the cameras too which means you can make up your own minds whether the seemingly unshakeable bland/abrasive/inexperienced tags are out of date, were never in date or are absolutely on the money.
The BBC leadership hustings will be broadcast in the Dragon's Eye slot on Thursday at 10.30pm. If you want to contribute a question via Email, then do. Send it to debatewales@bbc.co.uk.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~00~RS~)
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Question - to all candidates:
Assuming that the All-Wales Convention makes a strong reccomendation for holding a referendum on increased legislative powers (as envisaged in Part 4 of GOWA 2006) and that this is endorsed by the required 2/3rds majority vote in the Assembly, when do you forsee susch a referendum being held?
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Betsan, I am not backing Edwina for the leadership but must complain about this comment being unbalanced and therefore unfair.
"Edwina Hart's fans say she cuts a swathe through the two men and comes across as a real person. Her critics say she's abrasive and then some, calling big business "our class enemy", the Western Mail a "Tory rag" and claiming BBC Wales is "run by Plaid Cymru"."
The other two candidates have made equally negative comments during their political careers but are not subjected to the same negative reporting on this blog.
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Answer to numnber 1. It will probably be up to the members of the Labour Party to decide when a referendum will be held. It definitely wouldn't be held before the UK election.Whether it will be held after next May will very much depend on the reaction of the Labour Party in Wales to the result of that UK election.
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None of the three have the character, stature or ability to lead Wales.
However it seems BBC Wales, Plaid, and the Labour hierarchy have decided Jones is the man.
Possibly the worst choice, a cardboard yes man in a suit.
Buckled at the first test - note the speed he backed down to Plaid's objections over the referendum question. (see "The Big Deal" thread)
If he wins the "One Wales Agreement" will be secure with Plaid calling the shots!!
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Why is Huw Lewis having all the accolades from grass roots labour members? Could his distrust of Plaid be the key? I'm sure the party's analysts will see the downturn in support for Labour coincides with the party's coalition with Plaid especially as Labour voters didn't have a say on that decision.
It was said here in west wales by WAG ministers that it was better to 'sit and supp with the devil' than to lose power in the bay many
fell for that spiel but veteran campaigners who brought down the Plaid icon Gwynfor Evans said it would lose votes. Who was right?
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Hmmm why do you all think Plaid have a say? Surely it's up to the Labour party? I don't care who they elect.
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6 Plaid dont have a say - but they are entitled to an opinion. If for no other reason that they will have to work very closely with the new leader as part of their coalition!!
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#7 & #6
Correct Plaid do not have a vote - but they do control of much of the media, and browbeat AM's - follow the Plaid line or be damned as anti Welsh - hence they will influence the outcome.
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#8
It seems as if the Labour party is voting for a dog to be wagged by the tail!
Re your comment at #4 I have some sympathy for this but where democracy breaks down is that we do not have a credible opposition either.
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"Correct Plaid do not have a vote - but they do control of much of the media, and browbeat AM's - follow the Plaid line or be damned as anti Welsh - hence they will influence the outcome."
Control the Media eh - not a single daily newspaper in the World supports Plaid Cymru as far as I know.
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4 etc
While I agree that Carwyn is a classic uninspiring man-in-a-suit type of politician, the reason that he is the favourite is that he is more likley to achieve consencus than either Huw or Edwina.
He needs to maintain relations with his coalition partners in Cardiff and and the incoming Conservative regime in Westminster. Something you just cant see the other two doing.....
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Re 8
West-Wales has been reminding us of the sacrifice millions made in recent and less recent wars on this blog this week. It is therefore sad, almost shocking, to read
"Correct Plaid do not have a vote - but they do control of much of the media"
Of course it is laughable, but I also find it - in that context - rather sinister. Another group (minority) of people were accused of having control of the media, of the banking system etc. back in the 30s. What developed from those lies and consistent innuendo were surely the darkest days of mankind.
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11. I disagree. The decision to form a coalition with Plaid was taken in Cardiff simply because Plaid were seen as a party of the west and north and did not offer any threat to the highly populated Cardiff seats. Labour voters voted for a Labour government not a coalition yet
they did not have a say on the coalition that was decided by party activists and trade unions. Huw Lewis has set out his stall he wants
to return to policies that Labour voters want not what nationalists want and a hardening of that resolve will bring back those lost voters.
This time round there will be greater scrutiny on the question of coalition partners and constitutional direction before votes are pledged
and that can only be good for an ailing Labour Party.
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I have a question penddu, when you wrote at #1 .....
.... this is endorsed by the required 2/3rds majority vote in the Assembly, ....
.... this 2/3 majority of Assembly Members does not seem an excessive mandate.
#12 when you write FoDafydd .....
..... another group (minority) of people were accused of having control of the media, of the banking system etc. back in the 30s. What developed from those lies and consistent innuendo were surely the darkest days of mankind.
..... surely you are not implying an affinity with an oppressed Jewish race; during those dark days who was it that created the anti-propaganda, not the oppressed, do we have a similar methodologies at play in Wales today I wonder, is it not Plaid supporters who label any opposite thoughts as anti-Welsh, in fact even the most minor cultural differences are labelled anti-Welsh. Time for a reality pill Fo ....
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Re 14
I'm not making any real comparisons; however the sheer animosity towards the language, and increasingly Welsh speakers is worrying.
Though, the black shirts probably refused to answer any questions as well...
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I repeat to Stoney et al "Control the Media eh - not a single daily newspaper in the World supports Plaid Cymru as far as I know."
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Dewi_H #16
Dewi you are probably right - no National Daily newspaper in the UK would waste time or paper on them.
The media I was referring to was Radio and Television - especially bias on BBC Wales.
FoDafydd #12
I refer you to "The big deal" thread, - post #62. At 1:48pm on 10 Nov 2009, by SEDWOT.
It details far more comprehensively than I can what we the average English speaking Welsh are facing.
Remember I and my ancestors are Pembrokeshire south of the Lansker - like many other parts of Wales the Celtic tongue is not part of our heritage!
We have no interest in what language you speak, whether you enjoy poetry or music, how you choose to educate your children, or in fact what your politics are. - we have no interest in interfering with your way of life - that is your business!!
We just want to get on with our own lives - live and celebrate our own culture. - We object to and an aggressive well organised minority trying to force their language and culture on us.
Think about it
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West-Wales,
I have thought about it, and concluded that as your culture was supplanted here by the Normans at the expense of the native Welsh you are in no position to get upset now that the native Welsh are trying to re-assert themselves.
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What on earth is wrong with all of us being bilingual? Like Sweden?
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Big difference these days Dan, you couldn't vote those nasty Norman oppressors out. But we can these days Dan, we can vote oppressors out, Welsh Labour, are becoming as popular as nits in a Swedish kindergarten.
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With all due respect message no 18... only a simple minded Welsh nationalist would think that 2 wrongs make a right! Oppresively imposing your values on an area such as South Pembrokeshire just aint the same today as it was 1000 years ago... We live in a civilised society now!
South Pembrokeshire people are very comfortable with their unique culture and history. Unlike insecure Welsh nationalists with 'little man' syndrome they dont feel the need to push their culture on anything or one that moves.
Independence for South Pembs! :)
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Re 21
"Oppresively imposing your values"
No, you come off it! Please, can you explain that comment? And who exactly is this 'you'?
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Further to FoDaf's comments, I'm not imposing anything on South Pembrokeshire.
Whilst we are on the subject, the attitude of South Pembrokeshire that they should be an enclave, a law until themselves within, or outside of Wales, is terrible. It stinks exactly of what happened 1000 years ago, a different culture having no desire to integrate with the wider welsh community.
I don't personally have a problem with South Pembrokeshire other than to remind them that they settled in Wales, a land with a different language and culture, it may not be theirs, it may not be to their taste but nevertheless it is there. A great many Welsh people had to accept English over the centuries.
If anyone here believes that English speakers will become marginalised or outnumbered by Welsh speakers then you are giving far too much credit to the average taff - I am proud welshman and nationalist but we aren't going to abandon English in the masses no matter what laws are passed. Western and Internet culture is too far advanced for that. This is merely about ensuring people who do speak welsh are able to continue speaking welsh and do not have to turn to English to get by...I think the EU calls this a basic human right.
Anyone who suggests otherwise is clearly simple or trolling.
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Jack,
Funny comment, seriously. What I'm trying to say is that just as we have accepted the people of South Pembrokeshire into Wales, it's not asking too much that they accept the native language of the land into their lives. It won't harm them in any way.
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Haha oh the irony! A Welsh nationalist with no desire to integrate with the wider UK community having a pop at the people of South Pembs for supposedly having no desire to integrate with the wider Welsh community.
No doubt the phrase 'Little England beyond Wales' will make a few mouths foam here! Personally I didnt care for the term much in the past but if it winds up Welsh nationalists then it has its charms :)
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Worth remembering the word "Welsh" comes from the Old English Wēlisc, Wǣlisc; related to "wealh" foreigner.
While the name "Cymru" is likely derived from a (reconstructed) Brythonic word Combroges/Combrogos/Combrogi meaning "compatriots".
Interesting - seems we have a bunch of "foreign compatriots" trying to organise our lives.
The Celts are late arrivals here - Dan's comment at #24;
we have accepted the people of South Pembrokeshire into Wales
Is laughable nonsense.
The indigenous residents of Pembrokeshire (like many other communities in the south and East) have spent the last several thousand years repulsing raiding Celtic tribes, who since they arrived around the 4th century BC have been nothing but a Bl**dy nuisence.
The fabricated culture they are trying to spread from their small isolated communities has little to do with the living culture of today's Wales, and even less with the real ancient heritage of our country.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
I merely stated resorting to bronze age arguments is a bit too much. I give up.
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West-Wales, something tells me that you weren't there in 4th Century BC, how do you know they were a nuisance? They is no written evidence, they may well have been welcomed with open arms.
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West-Wales seems to think that the Welsh have never been in South Pembroke, this is abject nonsense, until the Norman invasion the language of the area was Welsh.
The English language is not threatened in the area, maybe the monolingual nature of the place is being challenged, but English excluded no.
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Re 30
"The English language is not threatened in the area"
Precisely. Unlike the situation of the Welsh language, a language that seems to annoy West-Wales and a mere handful of others so much. Which explains his lack of sympathy and concern no doubt.
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Lyn & Dan - I really don't want to have to go through this again.
Check;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/betsanpowys/2009/10/its_all_in_the.html#jump_more
Start with Dewi's post about #68 and on thro to #85.
It is a fascinating subject, there is considerable controversy, and debate.
As you say Dan we were not there, one can only interpreted the evidence.
The 4th century AD arrival of the Irish Deisi tribe (some 5,000 souls) was certainly peaceful, their landings at Fishguard and the Gower may have been prearranged and appears to have been with agreement.
The earlier arrival of the Celts coincides with the building of inland hill forts and certainly the earliest written records describe bloody raids sometimes but not always repulsed.
I have a problem with the earlier (4th C BC) Celtic incursions, current thinking is that there was no Celtic invasion.
Celtic Culture spread through sections of the indigenous population (like a religion) how it was introduced is not clear, but the evidence from the spread of fortifications is that there was much fighting, over territory, possessions, or ideology is a question.
Prior to the arrival of the Celts what we call Wales seems to have been peaceful.
However the Celtic language you refer to as Welsh, is actually relatively modern, it evolved from the early Brythonic branch of British, around the 6th century AD and modern Welsh developed about 1180, some time after the Norman invasion.
The language even today has variety - a North Walian will have difficulty communicating with a South Walian!
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Re 32
Two things - and I know West-Wales doesn't like to discuss with me!
We have Welsh poetry from the 6th century by Aneurin and Taliesin that is so sophisticated and brilliant that it could hardly be an early example in the language. It is also far more immediately understandable to modern Welsh speakers than Chaucer is to English speakers, even though it pre-dates that author by a good few centuries.
Secondly, I don't know what a Walian is. However, northerners and southerners have no more difficulty understanding each other than do Geordies and the Cornish.
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West-Wales,
"The language even today has variety - a North Walian will have difficulty communicating with a South Walian."
Brilliant, inspired, nonsense! If you are an example of Pembroke intelligence I fear greatly for the future of our nation.
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There isn't really a great difference between south and North Wales Welsh. Some words are different,Stairs are always grisiau here and when I was in Mid Wales were "star" or something similar. The words for Swedes and turnips were different. Ladder and school shared "Ysgol" but context and general awareness of slight dissimilarities means that there is no difficulty in conversation.
The well discussed arguments about the "cultural genocide" or "ethnic cleansing" of the Welsh language and the present state of affairs after the Welsh language Acts deserves a more reasoned dialogue that it is receiving at the moment.
It is an established fact that a dominant English culture has historically been determined to eradicate the Welsh Language but sometimes with the best of intentions.
The much vilified "Reports of the Commisssioners of inquiry into the state of Education in Wales" in 1847 is never given any credit for the thoroughness of its work nor well intentioned (and scathing) analysis.
The Commissioners acknowledged that the Welsh language was subtle and adept at conveying often very nuanced theological ideas and remarked that sunday school children showed a high degree of understanding of the Scriptures and were able to discuss complex religious theory with sophistication.
However they remarked that the children were "crying out" for secular education and that there were no books in Welsh nor indeed any words in welsh to impart that Education.
It is for this reason that there was a heavy emphasis on education through English.
The Commissioners looked at the wages of teachers and their qualifications:
"Out of 625 teachers (North Wales) 401 have an income lower than the wages of common agricultural labourers"
Teachers were anyone who had worked in England, (Carpenters , cobblers etc) and had picked up a smattering of the language. Quarrymen, too injured to carry on their trade, were often installed as teachers to avoid them "going on the Parish"
"The class of Schoolmistress is composed of persons who have been employed as sempstresses, charwoman and servants of the most humble description"
"In many cases the English teachers who are employed appear unconscious of any necessity for interpreting the unknown language which it is their business to teach"
And then there is the infamous "Welsh Not". These days it is a common understanding that this cruel punishment was the laid down policy of the English establishment. The very thorough Commissioners find few cases of the "Welsh Not" and they are both incredulous and disgusted at its use. The schools are funded and run by a variety of churches and institutions but for the most part teaching methods are left up to a very ignorant group of "Teachers".
" The following extract from the report upon a school at Llandyrnog, county of Denbigh, contains mention of a custom which has been invented in the hope of promoting a knowledge of English:-
My attention was attracted to a piece of wood, suspended by a string round a boy's neck and on the wood were the words "WELSH STICK". This , Iwas told, was a stigma for speaking Welsh. But in fact his only alternative was to speak Welsh or to say nothing. He did not understand English,and there is no systematic exercise in its interpretation."
"Among the injurious effects, this custom lead children to visit stealthily the houses of their school fellows for the purpose of detecting those who speak Welsh to their Parents and transferring to them the punishment due to themselves"
"Of 19,521 scholars examined only 149 were found able to read (English) with propriety and expression."
The Myth is that the "Welsh Not" "Welsh Stick" or "WELSH" as it was sometimes known was an injustice perpetrated by the English. It was an injustice UNCOVERED by the English but perpetrated by the ignorant teachers themselves.
There was no secular literature in Welsh to impart mathematics, history, geography or science or the classics and no Welsh English dictionaries were supplied to schools.
The sense of disgust and horror which the Commisssioners felt at what they found is clear.
So where are we now?
My Children have gone through Welsh medium Education with varying degrees of success. As you would expect, with one Welsh speaking parent, there was some help at home but even so two children coped well and two struggled. One of them struggled because of the initial "Immersion" method of schooling in Welsh.
Failing to understand, she resorted to consulting friends about what the teacher was saying and the lack of dialogue with the teacher throughout her early years blighted her learning.
This is an unfortunate fact. Welsh medium education works for first language Welsh speakers (English is not a Core subject for the early years in Welsh Medium Schools and is not taught.)
Welsh Medium education is good for some children from English speaking back grounds but only for imparting Welsh. Other aspects of Education suffer.
Welsh Medium education creates division and elitism within the school.
I watched children group themselves over a period of time in the playground until , by year five, Welsh first language children played together and English first language children played together. There was no animosity between groups but they were established groups.
The school play became, over the years, a source of discontent and bad feeling (not amongst children but amongst parents "why don't the English kids ever get a leading Role")
Parents, enthusiastic for their children to learn Welsh when they enter school become disillusioned. By year five some children, who have been taught from the age of four through the Welsh language, are transferred to "special language schools" to "Catch up on their welsh".
The Special Language schools were intended to fast track children arriving from England into Welsh language Education. No one seems to see that to send a nine year old who has always been taught through Welsh to such a school to "catch up" is an acknowledgement that Welsh medium education fails a significant number of children from English speaking families.
Has the wheel come full circle? Already English children overheard speaking Welsh in the playground are rewarded with a badge celebrating their fluency in Welsh. Those without a badge are made well aware of the second class status of their own language- English.
In a secondary school on Ynys Mon a few years ago a teacher slapped the face of a boy for mis pronouncing a Welsh word. (This is not a case that is disputed; the teacher acknowledged the offence and received a police caution). There is always more to these things than meets the eye and I imagine the boy involved was showing "disrespect" to the language. What was noticeable was the wide sympathy which the teacher received from the school, Its governors and the Welsh speaking community.
Wales as a whole has to take a sober look at how it legislates with regard to the Language. So powerful has the minority in Wales become that the feeling is growing that, far from being a forward looking and desirable measure, Compulsory Welsh education and Welsh only discrimination in employment is merely a long drawn out vengeance on the English speaking people of Wales for (often invented) historical wrongs.
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