What's occurin'?
I came back from Manchester and fell into the Mastermind Cymru questioner's chair for two days. The children's final is a corker and the celebrities? My lips are sealed but the way Gavin and Stacey's Dave Coaches, Nessa's partner, says 'Nesa' - pass in Welsh - is a joy.
So what's occurrin' in the Labour leadership race? What have I missed? On Friday the bookies got in touch to share their view that "Rivals can't keep up with Jones". Carwyn Jones' lead was stretching. A string of three figure bets had convinced them to cut his odds and put Edwina Hart and Huw Lewis in joint second.
Less than 24 hours later and it was "Hart moves up the rails". Why? Had there been big money bets put on her? Not exactly. "Health Minister Edwina Hart is now proving popular with political punters following her endorsement by Vale of Glamorgan AM Jane Hutt".
Wow. Who'd have thought she had such pull down the bookies.
AM nominations closed at midday and so there are now officially three in the race:
HART, Edwina
JONES, Carwyn
LEWIS, Huw
Strange how a different type-face makes the election of our next First Minister seem rather more imminent.
Here's a checklist of who's supporting who.
Edwina Hart tops the list of AMs with nominations from nine AMs:
Edwina Hart Ms Rosemary Butler
Edwina Hart Ms Christine Chapman
Edwina Hart Mr Jeffrey Cuthbert
Edwina Hart Mr Andrew Davies
Edwina Hart Mrs Janice Gregory
Edwina Hart Mrs Edwina Hart
Edwina Hart Ms Jane Hutt
Edwina Hart Ms Val Lloyd
Edwina Hart Mrs Sandra Mewies
Edwina Hart Mrs Gwenda Thomas
Carwyn Jones gets 8:
Carwyn Jones Mr Leighton Andrews
Carwyn Jones Ms Lorraine Barrett
Carwyn Jones Ms Jane Davidson
Carwyn Jones Mr Alun Davies
Carwyn Jones Dr Brian Gibbons
Carwyn Jones Mr John Griffiths
Carwyn Jones Mrs Lesley Griffiths
Carwyn Jones Mr Carwyn Jones
Carwyn Jones Mr Carl Sargeant
Huw Lewis has six - (as you've pointed out correctly in the comments, five + his own vote).
Huw Lewis Ms Irene James
Huw Lewis Ms Ann Jones
Huw Lewis Mr Huw Lewis
Huw Lewis Ms Lynne Neagle
Huw Lewis Ms Karen Sinclair
Huw Lewis Ms Joyce Watson
Now what? It's on to so-called supporting nominations from MPs, lone MEP, affiliated organisations and Constituency Labour Parties. They have ten days to respond and their support will be there for all to see in the election booklet that goes out with the ballot papers.
Huw Lewis - whose 'blooper' has received 305 hits on YouTube, 60 more than his actual campaign message - launched in Aberfan on Friday. Most prominent members of the audience? It must have been the young Labour supporters who had "Swansea Labour Students" emblazoned on the backs of their red hoodies. Point made. The Co-operative Party has now come out in support of Huw Lewis, as has Alun Michael MP.
Former Welsh Secretary Paul Murphy and Don Touhig are in the Edwina Hart camp. Big names, big endorsements, out early to kill off the sort of narrative that says MPs couldn't work with her. I have and I could is the gist of Mr Murphy's message.
But two MPs - or three with local MP Martin Caton - does not a First Minister make, at least not without a huge number of compensating votes from the affiliates and CLPs.
The Carwyn Jones camp are absolutely confident of a majority of MPs. Given there are 29 of them, they;re talking 15 or more. They say UK government ministers are lining up in the wings. The question is whether Mr Murphy's faith in Edwina Hart will cause some MPs to rethink their first, or even second preference.
And finally another Email, not from a bookie but one who understands the lay of the land in betting terms considerably better than I do. He's getting excited. Why? Because if you'd asked the bookies to quote a price on Carwyn Jones losing, last week you'd ahve been quoted a price of 8-11. That means that though he's the favourite to win, in a one to one battle the combined price of being beaten by either of the other two contenders means ... he could lose.
In other words if all of those who choose Huw Lewis as their first preference put Edwina Hart's name second, "not one of the three front runners seem set for a clear passage to the winning line".
Or in yet more words, this is going to be a proper contest.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~10~RS~)
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For a better Labour Party in Wales, who else but Huw Lewis.
An Assembly Member, he might just say "No" to Plaid and "Yes" to democracy.
Post or reactive moderation for all except Huw Lewis, please!.
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With most of Rhodri Morgans support staff working in Carwyns camp the
first minister doesn't have to endorse him but we get the message so no doubt Julie Morgan will also be in tow.Yesterday however the bookies were proved wrong in Ffos Las where only two of the seven favourites obliged. Every bookie wants the fav. turned over and the outsider to
win and are sometimes economical with the outsiders chances.Ask any punter they always back the outsider in a three horse race and usually
cop.So don't be to quick to put your money on 'the suit' or 'the jack'
Mr. Co-op could still oblige at long odds. Ask Big Mac or the Femail.
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Has Wales closed for investment? "Wales has a long and distinguished history of industrial innovation and achievement, emerging as a leading force in a diverse range of high-tech sectors, from aerospace to technology and bioscience. Cardiff, the capital, is an international city with a strong business base and world-renowned sporting and cultural venues. Other major centres are Newport and Swansea in the south and Wrexham in the north.FORD was one of the first inward investors.
Wales is home to a world-class aerospace and defence industry covering a wide range of operations, including maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), equipment manufacturing, unmanned systems and defence. There are around 150 companies employing around 20,000 people including BAE Systems, Raytheon, SELEX Sensors & Airborne Systems, QioptiQ, British Airways and Airbus UK.
The Airbus facility at Broughton, north Wales, is the company’s Centre of Excellence for Wing Assembly and Equipping and is participating in the Next Generation Composite Wing (NGCW) collaborative programme." INVEST UK
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The three listing of AM's support for candidates shows wrong numbers of AM's supporting Huw Lewis.The listing shows 6 for Huw lewis,whereas the names show a figure of 5 with Huw Lewis supporting himself making a total of 6.If you included Edwina supporting herself she would have 10 AM's in her corner,and Carwyn Jones would have 9 in his corner. Not wishing to be seen as a pedant but the numbers should be corrected to reflect correct position?. Am I wrong in thinking that Ms. Lynne Neagle is in reality Mrs. Huw Lewis (A wonderful estate in Law) and whilst no doubt she thinks he would make a wonderful leader,surely if she is married to Mr.Huw Lewis surely in fairness this should be publicised so everybody is aware of personal interest in these matters.Why would Huw Lewis be unable to get any male AM'S to support him in his candidacy,whilst Edwina has 7 females and two males, and Carwyn 3 females and 5 males. In the ever so politically correct BBC Wales I suppose such issues are complete verbotten,however HL must have seriously upset his male "mates" to get no support.
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#1 said:
....."For a better Labour Party in Wales, who else but Huw Lewis.
An Assembly Member, he might just say "No" to Plaid and "Yes"
to democracy"................
................................
..... ....
So - Huw Lewis, the Tories' choice for First Minister in Wales........
...... He'll be so happy with that endorsement.
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#5
The Labour Party saying "No" to Plaid the party of division is a step on the road to Welsh democracy, Huw Lewis is the only nomination with sufficient spine to reject the separatist cabal.
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message 3....
Whilst I cannot disagree with anything you have written, I must point out to you that most of those firms and inwards investments, were made on the strength of grant aid.
That is now to cease, with whatever funding available, and it is to be at a much reduced level in future,going towards research and development.
This is hardly likely to be of much use, in realistic terms, when you consider the amount of funding such gets in the larger economies across the globe, Japan, India, China, the USA, and of course Europe.
Debit the current level of EU funding that is about to also hit us hard,
as EU money is directed to newer and poorer regions joining the EU, and I am afraid the outlook does not look too pretty for Wales in the near future.
But to return to the thread, I cannot see much interest in the maneuvers in Cardiff Bay, most of those involved are relatively unknown to the general population, their business relatively immaterial to most, and policies currently in progress, see as divisive and potentially elitist towards a minority sector based on a language that is irrelevant to the vast majority.
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Re 6
Stonemason,
Strange how people see things differently!
The stridently anti-European Tories are, in my opinion, the true separatists - with their real, and only agenda, it seems, to return power to a small, powerful, wealthy English/British elite. That is their idea of the 'divide'.
Re 7
mapexx,
"immaterial to most, and policies currently in progress, see as divisive and potentially elitist towards a minority sector based on a language that is irrelevant to the vast majority."
- No, actually, that just seems to be your, and a very small conservative, British nationalist cabal on here's opinion... no, I mean obsession.
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HUW Lewis now has the official backing of the Co-operative party.
He said, I believe the best way of getting that message across is to have a really strong debate about principles, about values and about how to put them in to practise, given the enormous challenges we now face. Co-operative principles can really make a difference to people’s lives in Wales – particularly in relation to issues like social housing.
FiDafydd, whine as much as you will, Plaid is the separatist party, the only separatist party South of Hadrians Wall.
Post or reactive moderation for all except FiDafydd in a world of his own, please!.
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#6
As long as Labour say 'no' to the Tories then it can't be bad.
As long as we remind the little people of what the Tory wreckers did to them less than a generation ago then it can't be bad.
As long as separatist parties like UKIP and the BNP exist then the support for the Tories will dilute, haemorrhage and diffuse, which can't be a bad thing.
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Re 9
You hardly bring us shock news Stonemason, seeing that Huw Lewis has been elected as the Labour and Co-Operative Party Assembly Member for Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney from 1999 onwards...
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"Co-operative principles can really make a difference to people’s lives in Wales – particularly in relation to issues like social housing."
Agree totally Stoney - you should be in Plaid !!
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Dewi, there is the little issue of independence ......
Though I must admit that if I were a little younger, I would do my best to create a co-operative housing scheme that could provide dignity to the elderly in later life.
Post or reactive moderation for all, except the odd few!.
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5.No he's Real Labours choice. A socialist first and last. It is comical
to think that Carwyn Jones could unite the party, farmers son,lawyer,ex-
plaid,welsh speaker educated at Aberystwyth. The perfect profile for a
nationalist leader. Why don't you take him back? He's been reading up on
nationalism as we all now know? Even had the cheek to charge us for the book.
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Re 14
Are you really saying that all Labour Party members are as bigoted as you, in that they could never see a Welsh speaker as an unifying figure?
And do you actually realise just how disgusting your opinions are?
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#15
FiDafydd, you have demonstrated a poor understanding of good leadership in politics,
...it is not how it's said,
...it is what's being said,
Your outlook is so narrow it would be frightening if you were in politics, or are you ?
Post or reactive moderation for all except scary commentators please!.
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Re 16
I'll ignore the insult, which you always claim is not part of your game, and would would ask you to read thegnat's words again. You'll find that I was, quite rightly, criticizing WHAT he said.
Your selectivity is mind-blowing at times!
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message 8....
I suggest you take a look at the news this morning, the part that tells of how much it is costing to run the 'embassy' in Munich, Germany,... 200 grand so it is stated...and not a single staff member can speak German.
Bloody fantastic,
But I bet most can yabber away ten to the dozen in Cymraeg.
It rather puts a different light on your assinine remarks re my previous message.
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Re 18
...and did you hear the one about the British Parliament this morning mapexx? Now, if you were suggesting the abolition of that load of inconsequential nonsense as a means of ruling our country (Wales!!), then I would have every sympathy with your sentiments.
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19....
At least Westminster government governs, however badly, 61 millions, unlike the Assembly WAG that looks after the interests of what, a few hundred thousand?... in the main those with a language based nationalist bent.
The other 2.5 millions of the Welsh look to the east for their governance.
No matter what smart assed responses you put up, you have yet to convince that 2.5 millions that what the nationalist biased few have to offer, is better than what they get from Westminster.
The last ten years has done little to make any sort of inroads into the confidence of the vast majority here in Wales.
But at what cost? Too dreadful to even think about, considering the dire state of the economies of our local councils, which, being deprived of all the funds swallowed up by that mess in the Bay, are now being told to shed jobs by the thousand.
Some 'state' this region has turned into.
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Re 20
"At least Westminster government governs, however badly, 61 millions, unlike the Assembly WAG that looks after the interests of what, a few hundred thousand?... in the main those with a language based nationalist bent."
That comment just shows the vacuousness of the arguments employed by the Brit nats, and deserves no further response.
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21...
let us hope you stick at that then.
As for vacuous, try re reading nearly every one of your previous messages.
A capital letter, followed by a complete space, culminating in a full stop.
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