Stands, stitches and stirs
The very nice lady who sat next to me at a fringe event last night was quite clear that Usdaw had the best giveaways on their stand. Their raisins kept us both going and she'd heard they were promising more and better today. I hope she's made it to their stand to find out.
I'd have to say though that Unite has caused more of a stir amongst other delegates.The warm welcome given to Edwina Hart by them last Wednesday night did nothing to settle the feathers ruffled by her emergence as a serious contender to replace Rhodri Morgan when he finally announces he's going to step down.
Unite's top man in Wales, Andy Richards, recieved her with a hug and a kiss as she arrived to speak to a meeting of union activists. She got a warm round of applause before even beginning to address them and also before the camera left the room. The implication, from the top man at least, was clear - she's one of ours.
I gather a number of emails have been flying around since then, expressing concern about old fashioned union stitch ups and so on.
One "Labour source" told the Western Mail they'd found the spectacle "very disturbing". -Not sure we can we still use the singular really given we already have the Sharks and the Jets - you decide which one is which - and probably the Harts too. Not so says Jeff Cuthbert AM in a letter to the newspaper today: "I think this person has very little knowledge of the party's traditions and certainly no feeling for the union movement". In other words, union power is here to stay, like it or not.
Just why this warm welcome caused such a stir among the Carwyn Jones and Huw Lewis camps is made absolutely clear by some figures quoted by the ever-well-informed Lee Waters over on This Is My Truth. He cites a fascinating breakdown of the relative size of each union whose votes will make up the "third" electoral college - the first and second being AM/MPs and party members.
And who's top of the list?
Unite - with 100,450 members eligible to vote, dwarfing the next largest, Unison Wales Labour Link, with 52,000 and the GMB with 51,000.
Discomfiting? You betcha. The other unions are considerably smaller. Usdaw have 22,000 members, CWU 14,000, right down to the Musicians' Union, who were much in evidence at last night's Welsh Night, with 2,000 and TSSA with 1,000. In total, affiliated organisations and societies have just under 300,000 members eligible to vote, so Unite could potentially deliver a third of that college. To put it into perspective and if our maths is right, if all its members voted the same way, it would deliver the equivalent of 20 AMs or MPs.
Of course, they won't do that. The unions will ballot their members, and cast their votes according to the proportion who voted for each candidate. The days of the block vote are long gone.
But if Mrs Hart can take the lion's share of the Unite vote and then make substantial inroads into the Unison and GMB too, then it could go a long way to offsetting any lead that Carwyn Jones is building up among MPs.
The more you look at it, the more intriguing it gets.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
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Whoever is chosen, for their sake, I hope they are squeaky clean, personal and policy, if they are not I predict "the sins of the fathers" will anoint their head from a lofty height.
So an unknown that has no expenses issue and has never voted for any resolution ..... or a modern day Joan of Arc ..... who has been a loyal union member.
Naturally whoever is chosen will have kept both hands in their pocket whilst in the company of IWJ and chums.
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Isn't democracy wonderful ?
It should be so simple, and yet in practice it's so awfully complicated.
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Bunkum. Trade Unionists want Huw Lewis the centre left candidate.His knockers are the people petrified that he may abandon the Devolution process and rock the cushy lifestyle of the Cardiff based EstablishmenT.
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How uncomfortable it must be for you Devolutionists to contemplate a win for Huw Lewis. A left wing socialist well regarded by trade unions
with plenty of support from MP'S and AM's a real contender. Not surprising the Cardiff based media and establishment are against him.
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Huw Lewis might just have the right qualifications to remove the Plaid tarnish from Labours achievements, I don't think the coalition would last with him at the helm, could he work with Westminster I wonder ?
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Help me out, thegnatswatter, the Labour headline grabbers in Newport, are the independence, language crazed druid, Paul Flynn.
And, John Griffiths, who constantly refers to himself as an Irish-Welsh Celt, who's not fussy on the English.
He has also said, that because the standard of Welsh is so dreadful in Monmouthshire schools, Welsh language lessons should be intensified!!
During the 2002 Football World Cup, Wales not involved, Griffiths was asked by the South Wales Argus, would he be supporting England? Griffiths replied.....'No indeed not, I'm an Irish-Welsh Celt'.
He then went on to tell The Argus, that in his position as AM for Newport east, he'd offered to mediate between Roy Keane and the Football Association of Ireland in their little spat!!!
Yet, the MP for Newport east, Jessica Morden, is firmly in the Huw Lewis camp, who isn't too fussy on Griffiths?
It really is about time, that some Labour politicians either joined more suitable political parties, or were quite simply kicked out, and their ill gotten financial gains confiscated
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Huw Lewis is not half as popular with trade unionists as you appear to think. Although they will each have one vote, branches often vote the way of a perceived popular candidate and from my perspective as a trade unionist with some knowledge of the movement (unlike Stonemason, clearly), Carwyn has already gained ground through meeting individual branches whereas Edwina has always had a high union profile.
Huw apparently blotted his copybook a little with his family expense claims. His victory could well crash and burn the coalition, but then Labour have been far more effective with less money, due to their coalition partners forcing them to be more progressive. Do their members really want to go back to the bad old days of conservatism with a small 'c'?
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Surely, Paul Flynn and John Griffiths, would be far more content in Sinn-Fein? Than trolling about within the ranks of a supposedly British Unionist political party?
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Re 8
Have you completely lost your marbles?
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#7 so ianapharri thinks it is just down to trade union knowledge and a little fortune telling; fortunately the leadership election is going to be decided by peoples perceptions of each candidates stance on a wide variety of issues.
Huw Lewis and the expenses issue is long gone, his strength is that his participation in the coalition government with Plaid has been minimal, he identified the long term damage any relationship with the Nationalists brings to the political partying and stepped to one side.
Where ianapharri writes that the Cardiff Bay government have been more circumspect with government finances there is obviously a low perception of the facts, he writes of a coalition that spent 10% less per pupil than other regions of the UK with the same budget, whose health service is about to undergo a third reorganisation because they got it wrong twice, this is the coalition that cares more about how the world sees it than building 6500 homes for the needy.
Powys is leading the way West of Offa's Dyke, the days of Conservative localism has arrived, not satisfied with the "Bay of Plenty" management of health issues, it was decided by the local authority and health trust is amalgamating for the benefit of the people of Powys. These are the same disaffected electorate that will be voting for a new Labour leader, the indications are that change of direction is wanted by the little people,
tilting at separatist windmills is out,
good housekeeping in a consensus government is in.
Fortunately for everyone ianapharri your politics is recognised as yesterdays politics, not wanted on this particular journey.
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9 I think you are assuming that English-Jack had some marbles to begin with
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Leaving the party politics to one side, I have a problem with the fact that our Next FM (like the last one) will effectively be chosen by the Trade Unions. But at least the Unions should realise this time that just because they can annoint someone as party leader, it is no longer a guarantee that he/she will become FM (except for about 18 months)
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It does seem rather stange that a Labour Party member, who is in a union, gets to vote twice for his or her candidate.
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This may be a little off topic but I was reading the article concerning Defence academy plan is approved. It reminds me of the aircraft carriers that are supposed to be built in the Scottish shipyards. This was just political claptrap put about by Labour to try and garner support for the ailing Labour party in Scotland. They forgot to mention that the UK economy couldn't afford to supply the planes for those carriers which led one to think that there never was going to be any jobs for the people of Scotland in the first place. Do you really think that the UK government, of whichever colour, is going to spend 12 billion pounds to build and furnish this place when they can't even supply our troops with the proper equipment they need to fight in Afghanistan?
I hope I am wrong and you do get this place but I suspect that it was never going to happen and was just Labour giving promises that it had no intention of keeping as it is frightened of losing all those seats in Wales.
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Glyndo - some get to vote three times: as a party member, as union member and as an AM or MP.
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Strangely I agree with Jack's last comment in number 6 and I would expand it to all political parties - have a good, hard look at yourselves in the mirror and ask if you are really in the right party? Westminster or Cardiff? Unionist or Republican? Etc, etc...
And YnysEchni, they can vote upto 2 or 3 times? That's just plain ridiculous. The corruption and stupidity of political parties knows no bounds...
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drivel - it's incredible that now, in the 21st Century, they are choosing a leader by any other method than a vote by party members.
If/when they publish the voting figures, it will be interesting to see how many paid-up party members Labour has left in Wales.
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13,15,16,17.....
Excuse me if I am wrong, but did not the last Tory trade union laws make it a requirement that in order for Unions to 'block vote on behalf of its members, first the members had to be made aware and sign agreement to allow such to happen?
If I am correct, then it is quite legal for unions to vote in such a manner, which of course allows multi voting via individual and communal voting procedure.
If you do not like this, then I suggest you make sure, the next time a Tory goverment takes over, you badger your Tory MP to try to get him/her to overturn previous legisalation and put 'one man one vote' in place for ALL elections, be they Unions, Governments, councillors, boozing clubs, boards of directors, and whatever other organisations there are out there.
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Some people get to vote 4 times - don't forget the all women group members.
What sickens me is that NATS like Ianaoharri can have a say in the Labour's Leader. Sure as there is day and night without any surprise these people support the ex Plaidi and nationalist socialist Carwyn.
Finally Stoney I would like to remind you that Huw Lewis was sacked for not wanting anything to do with the NATS. A man who sacrificed his high salaried job rather than sacrifice his beliefs what a rarity down at the bay of plenty.
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As "nomorepowers" reminds us at #19 the Nationalists do not like Huw Lewis, he is amongst the 95% of people West of Offa's Dyke who find the extremists not to their taste, many Plaid voters are wary of the sunderers, in fact Plaid is bleeding support because of the likes of Adam Price MP and chums.
Wales needs Huw Lewis with a sense of urgency, how long will the coalition last without King Morgan at the helm, this is the burning question for the ianapharri's of this world.
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As my freedom to have a UK passport might depend on the next First Minister I am definitely warming to the old labour "candidate",ie. Huw Lewis (two houses are a necessity) and will apply to join Labour at earliest opportunity. As 19 and 20 stated anybody that the NATS dislike must be friend of mine,even though he wants to take us back to 1945 with equality agendas etc etc. Carwyn looks a "trimmer" and could find the same emotional attachment to the NATS as King Rhodri
rather than the ordinary working class english only speakers like myself,who seem to be the vast majority in east wales,who unfortunately arent welsh enough for the NATS and fellow travellers everywhere.Betsan can you ask a question of Adam Price in that if the NATS eventually get their way what will be the currency in wales i.e. Pound Sterling or Euro??
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Sorry lads but i've been offline.
6. Jack How is Paul Flyn and Rhodri Morgan still working at 74 and 70
and PF only became obsessive about the Language after he learnt to speak
it before that he always attacked it.Hypocrite till his 90th no doubt.
7.He may not be popular with Bob Crow's RMT but they have shown in the past that they will support any fanatical element even Plaid.
8. Don't forget Cllrs in the vote equation mind you on the coalition vote
members or Cllrs were not allowed a vote.
9. Another provocative swipe isn't it past your bedtime Sonny.
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In response to criticisms about my thoughts on how unions will vote for the likely Labour leadership candidates, all I can say is that I commented as an active trade unionist of many years. I do not necessarily aggree with the method of election, but as I am not a Labour member then it's none of my business.
One could argue that Plaid may welcome Huw Lewis as the new leader, as he would create fractures within Labour in Wales that would be too trong to prevent at least a partial collapse in their organisation-even more than the current problems they are suffering.
I always enjoy Tories like 'Stonemason' commenting on trade union issues. He is cleary an intelligent man, but with respect, is clueless about the trade union movement.
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23.Just like Plaids pretentious claims that they are a socialist party
they pretend to have the support of the trade unions?Bob Crow will align
his union to any 'naive political cause' to further his neanderthal approach to industrial relations.It's a shame 'desperate fledgling political parties' fall for his perverse spiel.
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20
Are 95% of people in Wales ultramontaine unionists?
How does this reconcile with opinion polls showing 78% (and growing) supporting at least the current settlement?
Ah! The latter reflects realities, so it is not allowed to count.
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You didn't read it did you Returnee, just jumped with two feet tied by the Nationalist prejudices.
I repeat .....
" ..... 95% of people West of Offa's Dyke who find the extremists not to their taste, many Plaid voters are wary of the sunderers, in fact Plaid is bleeding support because of the likes of Adam Price MP and chums."
Returnee, the Plaid leadership are aware of the problem that Plaid history brings to the "party", people do not like extremes. Remember you cannot fool all the people all the time ........... those traditionalists who prefer a democratic approach also prefer the "truth", I commend it to you.
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26
It works both ways. The bleeding of support must be a discrete one. Perhaps the 95% of people in Wales who are moderate are moderate because they accept the settlement. That is what being in a democracy is all about.
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#27
I am comfortable with "moderate" and "democracy".
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27....
According to some polls I have seen, 'moderate' is not their forte, what is, happens to be 'complete indifference' to the present set up in Wales.
As I said before, look to which direction their tv aerials are pointed, especially here in the south and south east. I would hazard a guess and say the same is the case in the borders and north east.
It is not a degree of 'moderate' that the Welsh generally makes them reluctant to tune in to S4C, again it's total indifference, if not disdain.
And that my friend, IS democracy, on the ground and in the streets.
The unfortunate thing is, they are also reluctant to take their indifference to the polling booths when an election is taking place.
Which tells me just how high a level of indifference there is for the WLB/Cymraeg and Plaid/Nationalist agendas in Wales.
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If there is an extreamist on this blog its Stonemason.
"I would advocate a much smaller government; one that is limited to protecting individuals from coercion and violence.
I also tend to embrace individual responsibility, oppose government bureaucracy and taxes, promote private charity, tolerate diverse lifestyles, support the free market, and defend civil liberties."
From this statement of principle we can see that he would restrict the government to running the police and the armed forces. The rest would go. No state funded education system, no NHS, no state funded roads.
I would say this is an extreme position to take. Now unless Stonemason wants to modify his statement of principles on his blog we have to take it at face value, with all that it implies.
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