Parties and perils
It's still a case of reading between the lines but it is starting to feel as though this stab at the choreography around Rhodri Morgan's departure wasn't that far off.
Let's say that 80%/20% will he, won't he shifts to 85%/15% and let's say too, for now, that the 85% are right.
His speech to conference in Brighton will be on a week Sunday. It will, perhaps, be rather less between-the-lines and rather more in-the-headlines than that particular entry had imagined and we will, so the whispering goes, 'be left in no doubt' as to his intentions by the time he leaves the stage. Not very statesmanlike to stand down in Brighton, rather than Cardiff did I say? Apparently that's almost the point. This is a party political matter and that is how the party want it to be seen - an announcement by the party man to the party, with the party faithful.
Next on will be Peter Hain. Then Sunday's Welsh night, with last year's goodbye Glenys topped by this year's hwyl fawr Rhodri. I imagine Frank Hennessy's been drawing up his song list for some time.
Unless someone's playing a very deliberate spoiling game, the First Minister's farewell is designed to go something like that.
But song lists aside, here's another list for you - a list of what we'll call 'the new marginals'. I've just been sharing it with producers who must decide where they're going to send their reporters over the coming months and who've got used, over the years, to commissioning constituency profiles on Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Ynys Môn and of course, Conwy. How many of those have you seen over the years?
"If you're doing a piece to camera and want to see Conwy Castle, the town, a bit of the surrounding countryside and the coastline in the distance, there's a lovely spot just here" ... advice from the man who churned out pieces last time round and the time before that and for all I know, the one before that one too.
The newly-named Aberconwy make it onto the new list but only just and not because Betty Williams MP's successor is going to come from the same party. Some other familiar names are there - Ceredigion, Llanelli, Ynys Môn and don't take your eyes off Blaenau Gwent. (I was up there on Monday night and was told that in a school election not that long ago, Plaid took it. But back to the real world ...)
Otherwise?
Alphabectically it goes Alyn and Deeside, Bridgend, Carmarthen West and South Pembs, Cardiff South and West, Clwyd South, Gower, Delyn, Montgomeryshire, Merthyr Tydfil, Newport East, Newport West, Swansea West, Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham ... I stopped there for the purposes of this morning's meeting.
A Labour source suggested recently that looking at North Wales, the party's best bet for a hold was Wrexham. Not Alyn and Deeside? No. The demographics have changed. It went in the European elections and now people are listening to warnings that on a bad night, it could go at the General Election too.
Last year a Labour AM told me that at that week's Labour group meeting, they could have sworn they'd heard a noise in the background - that of a train hurtling towards them at high speed but that no-one else seemed to be hearing it. Given it wasn't the sort of thing I'd got used to hearing from them, I listened properly.
A few months ago I passed them on the steps of the Senedd. You know that sound, they said - I know you think it hit us in June but I can still see those headlights coming.
It's started to hit home outside Wales that in a year's time, the most powerful Labour minister in the land will possibly be the person in charge of dealing with that impact.
Don't, then, expect the candidates who want to become First Minister to spend more than a few days saying goodbye to the old one - if he does make way for them. Sunday and Monday? Yes. By Tuesday won't it be Rhodri who?
They have a train to stop.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
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With Peter Hain on stage immediately after Rhodri, could it be Plaid's friend is jockeying for position, it would suit his ambitions, and he would match anything the Assembly might throw up ......
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Merthyr??? Shome mishtake shurely?
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1 Slight problem Stoney - he can not be First Minister unless he is in the Senedd (Unlike Downing Street where cabinet memmbers are selected off the street). And he would be a very brave man to fight a byelection in Neath where Adam Price would be waiting for him....
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2 - I was puzzled by Merthyr - not on anyones target list I would have thought....
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AP threw down the gauntlet some time ago, does PH have the bottle, he did oppose apartheid on the streets and Labour options going into 2010 seem limited.
Last chance saloon maybe.........
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......... or gunfight at the OK coral, I'd be his second, he comes across as more of man.
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message 3...
Are you certain about that?
I am not one for unelected personnel, but it seems most ruling groups here in the UK have the option to co-opt members, and, give them leading status whenever it suits their purposes.
But Hain for Leader? No I don't like that idea, I know he was a 'star' in the Apartheid problem, but, once he helped to sort that out, why did he not return to South Africa to help Mandela create the new Rainbow nation?
Some questions deserve answers, that being one of them.
Had it been me, that would have been my next move.
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Ah - Merthyr. We talked about Merthyr because if programmes want to look at a seat where the traditional Labour vote has been collapsing and going to 'others' - not one 'other' but all sorts of 'others' - it's not a bad example. More context than target but that's why it made the list for discussion. Worth taking a look at the Electoral Calculus website by the way and seeing in how many seats they reckon voters "will have a say on who their MP is": http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/
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7 Absolute on this one - the GOWA acts are very clear on this - Hain can not appoint himseld in a House of Lords fashion - it is democracy or bust
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Jane Davidson's seat at Pontypridd is a vacancy as she is standing down at the next elections, if Hain has his eye on the crown this is a pretty safe seat for Labour.
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message 9....
Please do not do my writing for me, I did NOT say he could elect himself, what I did, very clearly say was, as far as I am aware, it is possible for any council, or other elected body, to co-opt persons with particular skills, or desirable attributes, onto such councils etc.
A totally different thing to what you have written, to which, by the way I have no argument with.
Please, properly read my messages, then we will not be at odds, or cross purposes.
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11 Sorry Map I did not intend to put words into your mouth, but you appeared to be suggesting that Hain could be coopted into the assembly. Maybe he could in some format but not as a Minister. For that he would need to be elected, and I agree with SM that Pontypridd could be a possibility, but I think that Eluned Morgan has her eye on that one.
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message 12...
Apology accepted. Although I go with Stoney.
After all, 'all's fair in love and war', so they tell me, so when Ponty comes free, who is to say that one or the oher may, or may not, step up to the mark.
Personally, I really care little who goes forward, my interest lies in the whole sorry mess being done away with.
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