Odds on
When the cameras are welcomed in to see the first cabinet meeting of the new term limbering up for a session, the talk - so as to avoid proper politics and big decision making naturally - goes something like this:
First Minister: Have you thought about the pictures on your Christmas card for this year?
General muttering.
Unidentified female voice: I don't send cards to anyone.
First Minister: Ah well, some send a Mother's Day card, a Father's Day card, a Christmas card, a birthday card ...
That word. Birthday. I've just looked back at the tape. Both Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart look very carefully at the piles of notes in front of them. The will-he, won't-he continues though with the man himself seemingly keen at yesteday's lobby briefing to strike off possible reasons for 'won't-he.'
Let's assume he will go then.
On the back of a notepad I'm scribbling the names of three candidates and a list of the Labour AMs who will endorse them. They need six names each to enter the race. On my list, Huw Lewis has six. Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart have a few more names in their columns than they need. Some of the names have a question mark next to them, an arrow suggesting they could go one of two ways. Might this AM not like the idea of a female First Minister more than his ideas? Might he switch under duress to him? Rather a lot on this list from the same part of Wales ... and won't he say he's voting this way but in the end, vote that?
But on my list at least, everyone has six.
I have no idea whether Karl the bookie heard Andrew Davies on Good Morning Wales using the 'b' word - 'bland' - about what his preferred candidate is not, or whether he heard him call her "a winner". But Karl's odds have just arrived:
NEXT FIRST MINISTER OF WALES
CARWYN JONES 6-5
EDWINA HART 5-2
HUW LEWIS 3-1
JANE HUTT 10-1
INow that her name has been well and truly put in the frame, will Mrs Hart feel the need to come out and do her own talking - sooner rather than later?
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~07~RS~)
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What a fund raising wheeze for all the Great British banks !
They could place bets on the outcome of any First Minister election.
A far safer money spinner than some of their more recent investments.
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Betsan....
Please do me a favour and try to explain what relevance this crowd has to the average guy and gal in Wales.
Westminster fell in line behind the idea of a Assembly, and for ten years it has produced absolutely nothing that the local authorities were not already in the process of producing.
The only WAG/Assembly growth industry, apart from increasing public sector employment, is meddling and interferring in local affairs, something we can well do without.
Why do we need a new leader when what is drastically, and dramatically required, is the termination of the whole sad episode, which is without doubt a failure in experimentation with the lives, and social well being, of our people and region.
It has been an unmitigated disaster, financially speaking, and has raised expectantions to a level that cannot be sustained with all the promotions from the LWB.
As they used to say about a bad boy, equally applicable to the LWB..., "he was born to hang", and execution day must be just around the corner..
The bottom line is, plain and simple, the bulk of our population are not in the slightest bit interested in the maneuverings and shenanigans in Cardiff Bay, they turn their faces to the east, where their common ground in social and economic life is fundamentally based.
To Hades with the whole sorry mess. I am not alone in not giving a fig who is to be, or not to be, the next leader of Llafur.
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There's an actual market at Ladbrooks. Odds quoted in Political Betting were:
5/4 CARWYN JONES
11/4 HUW LEWIS
4/1 EDWINA HART
10/1 JANE HUTT
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Whats the difference between Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart( suit or shoes)? They both want to keep the status quo so why don't you change the betting to 6/5 Huw Lewis ,5/2 Edwina Hart and 5/1 Carwyn Jones. Now that would be more representative of what Labour Voters and the working class(or is it the non-working class) want but they don't have a say at this point it's down to the electoral college and they voted for the coalition so God help the faithful.Perhaps we can pursuade Don Touhig
or Paul Murphy to do an Adam Price. Now that would be interesting Betsan.
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What a state poor Llafur are in? Edwina AM for the Gower and Carwyn AM for Bridgend, are constituencies where Llafur came behind conservatives in the Euro elections. Imagine the fun if either were elected leader, and lose their seat at the next assembly election? Wouldn't that be delightful?
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Well the National Assembly elections tends not to be be written to Westminster or the European elections, so I would say that the incumbancy vote and the differential vote that we get at the different electoral contests should see both Bridgend and Gower looking much safer for a First Minister than it would an ordinary constituency member. As a non Labour person my money would be on Edwina, she is sharp, capable and a breath of fresh air for Labour. As a result I wan Huw to win...
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message 6...
If she is so sharp and focussed, maybe her true venue is Westminster, not the backwater Assembly.
I would be quite happy to back her in that place, should she move in the right direction.
Maybe Labour (not Llafur) could benefit from her acuity and keenness instead of it being wasted in the humdrum of Cardiff Bay, the repository of the dead, not so dead, and postitively defunct, as far as Wales is concerned.
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In both the Gower and the Bridgend constituencies Labour is in trouble. In both constituencies the party organisation is a shell. Although Labour regained control of Bridgend CBC in 2008 as a minority administration this was because of wards gained in the Ogmore constituency. In the Bridgend constituency the results were dire.If Labour holds on to Bridgend next year with a pretty poor sitting MP it will be a miracle. By 2011 both Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart will have to defend the cuts that the Assembly will have forced local authorities to make. Edwina Hart might get away with the fact that her local authority is controlled by the Liberal Democrat. It then depends who the voters beleive is responsible for the cuts. It will be interesting ,however, to see how Carwyn Jones tries to defend the £20 million cuts together with a 5% council tax increase now being considered by Labour controlled Bridgend. Throw in the closure of a much loved home by the Labour controlled authority in a Labour stronghold and the volatility of votes on 2 large private estates and the Assembly election in Bridgend in 2011 could be very interesting. To make matters worse for both Edwina Hart and Carwyn Jones turnout in Assembly election is always lower than that for Westminster and much closer to the European. Those who don't vote are probably potential Labour voters. The way issues such as the Porthcawl regeneration has been handled by the Labour controlled council I doubt whether Carwyn Jones will even get a vote in the town. Those who bet on political events should ask the bookies what are the odds on Carwyn Jones becoming First Minister and then losing his seat. It's worth a fiver.
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4 You clearly have no clue what bookmakers odds represent.
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9.No doubt your going to TELL me.
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Interesting, mind you that is fairly true of the Labour party in large sections of Wales, and for that matter the Tory party too... I would be surprised if you could write UK election results directly onto National Assembly results. Though I think Labour will suffer badly, I don't yet see the Tories gaining a majority of Welsh seats, or anything like the vote they might have once expected at the height of Thatcherism. They will be lucky to get 1/3 of the vote. I think both Bridgend and Gower are seats that could be easily lost at Westminster yet conceivably held a year later in the National Assembly elections. Some how I don't think the Tory Party will be as popular as it potentially seems at the moment. A year of cuts and rising unemployment will dent their popularity greatly.
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The electorate seem to be out of step with arch-sunderer Thomas, have you not read that the little people, that's the non-political classes, prefer to cut government spending to an affordable level. In the UK today only the Conservatives are in step with the electorate, the Conservative Party called for reductions in government spending before the electorate called for it, I am calling this support for Conservative policies.
As long as the Conservatives avoid "Plaid the sunderers party", and have a meaningful dialogue with the other Welsh politicians and our next Westminster government, we can look forward to a more equitable future.
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Re 12
Could you then please ask your toff pal DC to promise to cut spending on the parasites that are the royal family as well? It's only fair.
Mind you, you haven't won the election yet, so it's a bit arrogant of you to take victory for granted. Very Tory, though; especially toff, non-meritocracy Tory!
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message 13.....
I do not think such comments re 'parasites' are very welcome or constructive to many who live in the UK. Even in Wales there is a fairly large tranche who are supporters of the Royalty, however I am not one such.
But what I will tell you is this, thanks to a negotiation between State and Monarchy over a century ago, much of the Royal finances were absorbed by the state, in exchange for certain agreed quid pro quo.
Now I will take a chance and assume you own your own house.
That being the case, no matter how you obtained it, either by cash, mortgage or inheritance, or any other means, you claim ownership by rights of obtaining it by whatever means.
That is the situation in which the monarchy finds itself.
How it came by the property in the first place is immaterial considering the state has accepted its validity over the centuries.
You may have paid for yours one way or another, so you 'own' it, maybe should a extreme left wing government come to power in the future, there will be a return to the old Marx tal;k of 'property is theft', would you welcome being thrown iout of ownership as a 'parasite', despite your present 'legal' status in the property?
The monarchy effectively handed over to the state much property, and financial wealth, in exchange for annual state support. The agreement, just as in the case of your house, was on a basis of 'in perpetuity' therefore we are duty and honour bound to maintain that situation, until and unless, either the monarchy self destructs or parliament decides to dispense with the existing arrangements.
You nasty remarks about 'parasites' is therefore inaccurate, unjustified, under the law, and shows a streak of suppressed envy, jealousy maybe, and is totally undemocratic,.
And that from a committed republican who believes in modernisation via democratic process.
Striking out at those who cannot legally defend themselves is little more than a BNP sort of tactic, which I am sure you otherwise would deplore should it be along the lines of 'throw out the immigrants or blacks' etc.
The Monarchy is a legal state institution, not a target for any Tom Dick or Fi Fi to hurl brickbats at, in the manner you have done.
Shooting from the hip with a peashooter is no match for the massive big guns of the state, so I suggest you keep your nasty remarks about one of the state institutions to yourself. You never know, we could get an extreme right, and deeply royalist, government, that would scan through such message boards as this, to sift out folk with anti right wing and anti royal emotions.
Caution is the watchword when being scurrilious about matters that are above you.
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Re 14
So now it seems that to express my opinion is, in your words, "totally undemocratic"!
I am talking of the civil list - and they refuse to see it reduced by even a penny, when the poorest in these countries have a difficult 2-3 years (at least) ahead of them.
But again you are inconsistent. You berate me for attacking an institution, whereas it seems to be you raison d'etre to be on here - namely, to attack the National Assembly for Wales. So, by your own logic, you are being 'totally undemocratic'.
I only wished I was in a position to own my own home.
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message 15.....
You can express an opinion by all means, no one denies you the right, but why slope off into insulting parasphrasology?
I am not being inconsistent in the slightest, I berate the assembly for its worthlessness.
It, unlike the Monarchy, does not earn its keep, or pay its way.It has become very obvious to the taxpaying public, the Assembly does nothing for the people of Wales, that its functions are a doubling of those capably taken care of by the local authorities, which makes it superfluous to requirements.
It is an 'invention' to sate the unworthy aspirations of a minority, to the disadvantage of the majority, not only here in Wales but the whole United Kingdom.
As for it being there by democratic process, that is totally wrong, it is there because the vast majority of the Welsh population are just not in the slightest interested in its existence, never were, that was a known fact before the 1997 debacle caused its establishment.
There is hardly anywhere on earth that would declare a 'win' on a basis of a 'majority' comprised of only a quarter of its population.
Such disproportionate a result would cause the election to be re run in the vast majority of cases, unless of course a dictatorship was doing the running of such an election.
The 'civil list' you are scathing about is the very thing I mentioned, that was established to reimburse the monarchy for what the monarchy handed to the state when Victoria was Queen.
If you feel that was never the 'property' of the monarchy, then you have a point of sorts, no more than my house is my 'property', which is in effect what Karl Marx said, in that phrase he used, 'property is theft. (Or was it Lenin, I cannot recall exactly).
I have to agree that, as I see it, beyond the absolute minimum to run the monarchy, the civil list should be tailored to a more rational level, in that I would expect the monarch alone to be state funded, and the rest made to work, or apply for benefits that match those given to anyone else who is unemployed.
Unless and until the state decides to rescind the status of the monarch, and as long as the state deems it optional to fund the monarchy, then they are not 'parasites', but rather 'employees' of the state, just as a nurse or teacher. Higher paid without doubt, but hardly the masters of their own destiny, considering the demands made on them by the state.
I suggest you do a little research into the relationship between monarchy and state, and stop firing blanks.
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Re 16
"You can express an opinion by all means, no one denies you the right, but why slope off into insulting parasphrasology?" !!!!!!!
From the person who called me an "useless prat". Absolutely extraordinary.
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message 17....
So sorry if the truth hurts.
But yet again you fail to address the matter in hand.
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Re 18
Which, for now, is your ridiculous macho posturing, which I can only assume stems from a great insecurity. When argument fails, you turn to personal insult. Most people leave the art of childish name calling behind them. You have told us, many times, that you are a member of the older generation, that rather gives the game away...
In 16 you say:
"the Assembly does nothing for the people of Wales"
How can anyone have a proper debate with someone who's prejudices makes him come out with such ridiculous, intellect free, comments?
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#19....
I now ask you, but I do not expect a sensible or constructive answer,... ...
What has the Assembly done for Wales over the last ten years.?
It has cost us a large sum of money, but with little viable to show for it, however I will await the list from you that answers my question.
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Re 20
I repeat, you said "the Assembly does nothing for the people of Wales",
and that is just prejudiced nonsense.
Unfortunately, the settlement we had was a weak and anaemic one, and we could have achieved so much more than we have in the first ten years of our new democracy had we been given proper powers.
However, even with those laughingly limited powers, in the fields of education, health, agriculture, culture and even economics the National Assembly and WAG have very real achievements that they can be proud of. It has also developed policies that our own nation can identify with, and that is very important.
Do you still insist that "the Assembly does nothing for the people of Wales"?
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message 21...
I said, quite categorically, that you would not be able to, or capable of, answering with FACTS, and I was correct, all we get is yet more supposition, without any sort of statistical back up.
Do you not realise that others read this blog besides just the few who support your silly responses?
I will ask you again, more expansively, what has the Assembly done for Wales that local councils could not have done just as well, and far cheaper?
What policies has the Assembly devised that has given Wales something to identify with that were not already there before 1997? Or that councils could have not put in place, if they had been not forced to accept the over lording by the Assembly?
What can you actually demonstrate, with statistical facts, not just a load of waffle, as in your last message.
I can take at least two you have mentioned where the existence of the Assembly WAG has actually done such negative actions as to reduce the benefit to both health and education.
The educational standards have gone down, the costs have risen. At least 10% in both aspects.
The health has shown a definite decline, when measured against the results across the Dyke. Longer waiting lists, and times compared to the English NHS, which is free of such an interloping body, and many more overall and front line problems, so it is reported.
Please enlighten me, and everyone else, how it is that all commentators on the political scene have listed this double decline, yet you see it as some sort of achievement?
Please explain this dichotomy of reportage, between our expert Fi Fi, and everyone else, on the Welsh Assembly state of achievement.
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message 21....
I forgot to mention the little matter of Ireland that you nat nuts were so fond of boasting about some time ago.
Oh! how we could be like Ireland if the shackles of England were removed, and we could strike out on our own as a separated nation, without having to look to the UK all the time.
Such previous bravado rhetoric comes somewhat hollow if spoken nowadays, does it not? But its all quiet on the WelshPlaid front just now, no more a Wales apart following our Gaelic cousins down the path to success and European glory.
Ireland has gone from the top of the tree Celtic Tiger to a scruffy half starved back alley moggie in ten short months, and is now hoping to maintain its EU connection by giving the thumbs up to Lisbon.
Failing to do so, puts its membership seriously in jeopardy, and you still think that wales could cut the mustard on its own?
As I told you before, you have a lot to learn when it comes down to political nous, its not just down to making fatuous statements about... "we wuz robbed" in 1997..., as you more or less say in your last message, it has everything to do with reading the runes of practicallity, and dispensing with phony patriotism, and slogans.
The hopes for Draig Goch leading Wales into some sort of EU sunshine fades the more the nonsense engaged in by the WAG Assembly, is shown to be so much dross.
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Re 23
The mood's no better today I see.
I'm not quite sure what exact point you're making about Ireland. Is it: serves them right for daring to ask for and gaining their independence? Is it: the Irish could never be clever enough to run their own affairs? Is it: everything would have been alright had they stuck with us Brits?
So what is your point about Ireland exactly? If you were talking to an Irishman now, what would you tell him? I would tell him that, unfortunately, Irish governments over the last ten and more years did not take measures to ensure their economy didn't grow beyond a level that was manageable. But that was a problem with government. It wasn't a problem that was bound to happen because it was Ireland. And it certainly wasn't a problem because their pride in their nation - a status you probably would have denied them - saw them become independent and free.
So why is the UK economy also in such a mess?
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Message 23.
What price Irish nationalism? The Irish Minister for finance, Brian Lenihan, has accused the thousands of ROI shoppers heading north as unpatriotic, and, filling Her Majesties exchequer.
Here's an example of these happy shoppers, graciously boosting British coffers.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/southern-shoppers-to-spend-pound91m-on-northern-ireland-lsquobooze-cruisesrsquo-14261993.html
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message 24...
No... the point, and I am sure you could understand it,but opt to try making it appear different from your usual attacking style, that some time ago, others, and I believe you may have been one of them, made great play on how wonderfully well the Irish economy was doing, a veritable Celtic Tiger it was called.
The type of country Wales could be if we only were unshackled from England.
Not so veritable today, and therefore NO example for any potential Welsh economic copy cat scenario for at least the foreseeable future..
Your questions about talking to an Irishman, in the manner you laid out, would not be any pattern of behaviour I would follow, I would not be so crass as to do so, makes me wonder about you, that you could even drum up such a series of questions, even in theoretical terms.
Gives rise to me asking you whether I should even be discussing this matter with you, considering the muck that you spin out to try making brownie points.
Following message 25, makes the point about ROI shopping trips to take down even further the Irish economy, by spending their Euros in Ulster, that dear Fi Fi, is what would be the likely result of a separated Wales.
All your hard up fellows crowding over the border to Hereford and Gloucester, Bristol and Liverpool/Manchester, to take advantage of the cheaper prices and better stocked shops.
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PS to my last message....
The UK economy is NOT in a mess. You really should stop reading pretend newspapers, like the Sport and Sun. Don't believe all you get from the rags, they give you a sinking feeling in your stomach.
But just to bring things a little into focus for your tired eyes, only this evening, it was announced the UK economy is rising faster and faster, and the FTSE is currently running at the same level as some time ago before the crunch hit, and the construction industry is once again flying, along with the rise in shares etc.
And unlike Ireland, the overseas business's and tourists are flocking in to take advantage of the pound.
It may well be, long before the election, that Labour will swing around, again this evening the polls show a marked rise, reducing the Tory lead to just about 5 percentage points.
I suppose the Tory gab-fest in Manchester next week will reveal what they have in store for us, should they win the election, but I doubt they are on to a winner, unless they make promises they would find impossible to keep, once in Westminster.
Also, a hung parliament could well see another LAB/LIB coalition.
So for all their fine talk, and cock a hoop performance of recent times, the Tories have not yet got that magic number that will provide them with the key to the door of the Palace of Westminster.
And yesterday one very very good piece of important news, The Sun has decided to support the Tory party.
This I forecast to happen only a couple of weeks ago.
Stick with mapexx Fi Fi, you will be going places, other than that grey sad world you reside in at present.
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Re 26
That's no answer. Your thesis still seems to be - Ireland's economy is failing because... it's Ireland, and Britain's economy is currently flourishing (not in my world it isn't!)because... it's Britain!
A highly dubious economic theory, and a rather extreme form of nationalism. You almost seem to be enjoying Ireland's - and by definition, ordinary Irish people's - discomfort.
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Message 28.
Fi fi, d'you agree with Brian Lenihan, that shoppers from the ROI, who shop in Ulster, are unpatriotic? And, what would Llafur and Plaidi do, to stop such cross border shopping in an independent Cymru?
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Message 28....
I revel not one whit in Irelands distress, for one simple reason, I coulodn't care less about the place or its fundamental financial problems.
I am afraid yoyu have a pucity of capacity to read and comoprehjend,. all that yopu are saying is basically you cannot understand what I habve written.
You must be about the ony one who frequents these blog pages with that form of mental myopia.
I take note that the writer of message 29 was able to read and comprehend my message quite adequately, and rephrased my question to you.
So instead of that blindness over MY written message, I will leave you to answer the question posed in message 29.
I do not expect a rational answer, if indeed you answer at all, but that is you.
As for the rest of my message, you seem inordinately reluctant to, or is it incapable of, answering ANY of the points raised, yet continue to make issue of the idea I offer nothing constructive for debate.
I await your further response in anticipation of another load of tripe.
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Re 29
Don't be silly. Another one enjoying people's discomfort it seems - very worrying.
They are no more unpatriotic than English people sailing over to Calais for some cheap booze. Or perhaps you disagree?
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Re 30
I understood perfectly well what you were saying, despite your strained relationship with the English language.
I just find your message - as so often - distasteful.
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message 32,
...and I find your pernicious responses even more so.
I suggest you get out of your rented shack and take a look at the real world, also, what my trips to the Continent are for you to remark on, in such a snide way is just another of your inadequacies coming to the fore Another classic example of your envy of anything others are able, and can afford, to do, while you are stuck in your poverty trap. And you have the gall to call yourself a 'socialist'. Such a one that can only be described as a Thatcher period offspring of the greed culture.
More or less your own fault I am sure.
What I do with my money, and how I got it, is between myself and the state, how I spend it is my business, and not for you to comment on. Jealousy is bad for your health, but no doubt that green in your eyes is due to your connection with the Emerald Isle you are so very defensive of. Just why that should be can only be guessed at, but there again, what mess the place is in, without doubt, is caused by their own folly in fiscal probity.
Just like Iceland,they overplayed their hand on the world stage, and the gamble did not come off.
That is why I have no interest, or for that matter, sympathy, for the state of their economy.
If you like them so much, and feel so sorry for them, why not trip over and help them out with your magnanimity, and expertise in finance.
Just as will be the case for Wales, if you did, sooner than later they would be crawling to either the UK ,or Europe, for handouts.
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Re 33
How you could possibly see my response to Jack-Wilkinson's posting as an attack on you is truly beyond me! It had nothing to do with you. I think it's more of this British nationalist paranoia...
And now then, you said:
"That is why I have no interest, or for that matter, sympathy, for the state of their economy."
- then why the hell did you bring them (i.e. Ireland)into the debate in the first place.
In your present foul mood I could recite the Lord's Prayer and you would
see it as a personal affront.
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message 34....
Excuse me prat, long nose...
...do you not recognise numbers now? I suggest you clean those specs, or at least bring them nearer your face
I responded to your message 32 which you headed by saying responding to message 30...
Now correct me if I am wrong, but who the hell wrote message 30?
I brought the Irish matter into the discussion as a swipe at the clever clogs like you who were not so long ago telling the world and his wife their's was the example Wales should follow by gaining independence. Do you not understand that in your rush to pick up grammatical errors and typographival miskeying?
And yes,I wouild see the recitation of such fantasy as a personal affront, and that no matter what mood I was in.
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This comment has been referred for further consideration. Explain
Re 36
Is it because I said 'au revoir'??!!
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Returnee #33
The two postings are pretty regrettable.
But simply responses in kind.
(I didn't refer 31)
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