Lining 'em up
A Labour party official has just confirmed that "the ducks are all lined up for Rhodri to announce he's stepping down and to trigger an election ... but ... "
"But" indeed.
We all know that things don't always turn out as you might expect when Rhodri Morgan and ducks are concerned. Let's just accept we might all be going round in circles on this one for a little bit longer.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~21~RS~)
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Read this...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/sep/15/wales-tories-cameron-labour
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Thanks LBG. I've linked to it in the previous post.
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I believe that if pragmatism came to Welsh politics, and the people became more important than the politics, particularly when the political divide is so narrow, Labour could work with the Conservatives. If only the people were important.
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This was fantastic!!!!!!!
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1 I agree with this polling data showing the Tories creeping ahead, but not with the actual seat predictions. The prediction model used does not take account any movement in Plaid vote (whether increasing or decreasing) and simply gives them the same vote as the last election. This model actually shows that the Conservatives would win Llanelli ahead of Plaid - not even Stoney believes that!!!
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penndu #5
Is there any evidence to show any movement in Plaid's likely share of the vote.
While Labour seems to be loosing support, Plaid do not appear to be significant beneficiaries. - is it likely, on present showing that Plaid will be lucky to achieve the 2007 result, and more likely to get around the share of the vote they won in the EU elections.
I agree that for the Tories to beat Plaid at Llanelli would be dramatic, but its not impossible.
There is a sea change away from Labour, but while Plaid's core support appears solid they are not appealing to a wider group.
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Surely one of the most intrusting seats will be Gower. It has been Labour since 1906 when it was won by John Williams making it the longest uninterrupted Labour seat in Wales and(that of any Party for that matter )and one of three in the UK. It has remained largely the same size with only a few boundary changes; but even in 1983 when the Tories had their largest number of seats in Wales (largely due to an increase in the SDP/Liberal vote) it’s majority was still 1205 and soon recovered .The seat is a bit of a microcosm of Wales having roughly. A Welsh speaking industrial North and English speaking South surprisingly it has never been fertile territory for Plaid but if Llanelli falls to Plaid and Gower to the Tories the political Landscape could change forever.
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6 Unfortunately, there is a huge lack of polling data for Wales, but I agree with you that Plaid's vote sems fairly static. Despite Labour being in freefall, Plaid have not really been able to capitalise, although things could change significantally before the next Senedd elections.
My comment though was more a criticism of the Electoral Calculus prediction method, which applies a uniform British swing between Lab/Con/LD to Wales (& Scotland) without adequately taking into account the presence of Plaid.
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8 Penddu.
Yes agree - the Electoral Calculus prediction is pretty crude.
there is a huge lack of polling data for Wales
Recently (over the last few months)there have been many private polls, Yougov have been particularly active, but there have been others.
None to my knowledge have been published.
Public opinion is behaving strangely - instead of people supporting parties, suddenly all are black sheep, its a case of we have to change.
People seem to be rejecting the Socialist big Government total control model.
They don't like Cameron and the 1979 - 1997 history still frighten.
But they can't see any other ideology that is going to;
Get government back in its box, cut back on expenditure.
Stop criminalising people and give them back some freedom,
Stop taking from the worker and giving to the shirker,
And start rebuilding.
I think they will give him a try, and possibly be disappointed, but UKIP et al may surprise, they are new kids on the block and decidedly small government..
BNP is not in the game.
The Greens will get some support.
Devolution despite apparent support has failed to deliver (a pity) and is now yesterday.
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message 9...
Another classical assessment Westy. Keep it up!
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M5,penddu,
This model actually shows that the Conservatives would win Llanelli ahead of Plaid - not even Stoney believes that!
No it doesn't, are you on the right link?
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_wales.html
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11 JW - I was not saying that the current prediction showed Llanelli being won by the Conservatives, but that the model would eventually do so - I didnt explain it very well, so here goes:
The 'Baxter' prediction model used in the Electoral calculus site applies a 'Uniform National Swing' to the polling data of the big three UK parties, such that it applies a swing of say 10% from Labour to Conservatives at a UK wide level to the previous results in Llanelli. Meanwhile the Plaid vote is frozen at its previous level and does not pick up any of the disolving Labour vote, which is clearly not the case here.
I agree that it is difficult to apply a three party model into a 4 party system, but it is not impossible, and a better model would take account of more recent Euro and Assembly elections (suitably weighted) to give a closer prediction.
But the only accurate prediction will be the GE vote itself - bring it on.
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Let’s be clear the Electoral Calculus website for Wales shows the Plaid vote for every constituency in Wales remaining static and therefore can’t be taken seriously for predictions i especially that some will as usual buck the trend anyway. Penddu may be right The 'Baxter' prediction model used in the Electoral calculus site applies a 'Uniform National Swing' to the polling data of the big three UK parties but if you were to look at the sites predictions for Scotland it shows the SNP being taken into considerations. (They obviously have more data) and making massive gains.
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Just to add a bit more, Electoral Calculus site shows Llanelli as being a 'Safe' seat where the electorate can not influence the result - I dont think Labour think so locally.....
And Blaenau Gwent is shown as being 'Not Safe' - despite the sitting MP having 60% of the vote with the next nearest challenger having only 20%.
This is the problem with generic predictions which take no account of local knowledge.
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This is the problem, Wales needs regular polling, I would love Trinity Mirror, the BBC and ITV Wales to commission one every 3 months - minimum so that each month we had a poll. The sample size with UK polling is just too small to be accurate and as has said the methodology fails to take into account Plaid.
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message 15....
We used to have regular polling, they were called local elections and general elections, they served us well for over a century, suddenly along comes this new brigade, who want evertything NOW, at Once and Immediately, to hell with the structured and planned approach, it must be 'today', a 'tomorrow can look after itself' sort of attitude.
Polls every three months, and what will that achieve? apart from yet more nonsense from those who invariably come last.
Back to the old ways, the ways that were model and ideal, for our sort of society.
OK!, so we swung between the left and the right, but at least we knew where we were between elections.
Today, no one has a clue, we have New Labour doing Tory things, we have Tories advocating socialist policy, we have Llafur/Plaid screwing the region up, we have the Lib Dems flouncing about, being all things to all men, with the nett result we are all of a dither, and we have nothing secure or substantial to rely on or to look forward to.
Black and white is what I want for my politics, or red and blue if you prefer, and to hell with opinion polls, they usually only reflect the answers to loaded questions, or the state of peoples minds on the day of taking, anyway.
Time to call a halt to what we are currently subjected to.
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