Right place, right time
Being in the right place at the right time. It doesn't happen by luck you know.
Carwyn Jones, the not-yet-declared leadership contender can tell you that much. It takes planning to find yourself in the right place to shake hands with Gordon Brown as he arrives to say a few words at Welsh night. It takes planning to make sure your soon-to-be-campaign manager is on the spot to film 'the moment'. Coming to a slot on Rhondda TV soon perhaps?
As a Labour parliamentary candidate who'd grabbed a snap with the PM put it, "you learn to be shameless, you know". I think she suspects she's going to need more than a 6x4 with Gordon Brown to win her seat but lost the will to live? Certainly not. Conference seems to be full of people who are rediscovering it. The poll in the Independent this morning that puts Labour on a par with the Liberal Democrats may sap it a bit but reading that the Conservatives are down by two points on last month should surely re-energise them and bother Mr Cameron.
No sign of Edwina Hart in Brighton. She 'doesn't do conferences' says a friendly voice. 'If she'd turned up this year you'd probably slam her' .. for being shameless no doubt. Still. It's winning friends and influencing people time - winning over MPs in particular. Bar talk and nothing else gives Carwyn Jones the support of at least 15 MPs if not more, Huw Lewis 9 if not a few less, depending in which part of the bar you're standing. Edwina Hart? Her camp must accept there is work to do. One MP couldn't help but pull a face last night when I mentioned her name. I'll put him in the Carwyn Jones camp then.
Huw Lewis is here, there, everywhere and rarely without Jessica Morden, MP for Newport East and former General Secretary of the Labour Party in Wales stapled to his side. I'll put her in the busy, upbeat Lewis camp then.
On Radio Cymru a few moments ago Rhodri Morgan was as sanguine as ever and happy to admit that no, he hasn't made up his mind exactly when he'll be off. He wants to do it right and as they say in Cardiff, tidy. Right place, right time.
As one senior figure with a vivid turn of phrase put it to me yesterday, Rhodri "has shown a bit more skirt" and with it lifted the mood of those who'd started to talk about "silly" and damaging delays.
UPDATE
Rhodri Morgan is down to speak at a fringe event later. Just as well he's made clear he is about to stand down before leadership hopefuls spotted the title of the Unite event: "Keeping people in work".
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~05~RS~)
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Just looked at the small number of replies to Betsan's blogs on the subject of who might take over as "first minister".
Not many is it!
And if those (of all shades of opinion) who regularly contribute on here are not wildly enthusiastic, just imagine the apathy out there amongst the voters. I'd bet that 'man strolling down Cowbridge Road' (East or West)or even Cathedral Road, is not even aware of the assembly comings and goings.
Surely this rather mediocre topic has been done to death recently?
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I'm getting my fish-shooting-in-barrel in early today:
Of course, Noah is first of the starting block with a comment on... er... how uninterested he is in the topic!
We know of course that Noah and his chums prefer to use this blog as a pretext to air views on the genetic and cultural superiority of English speakers, and generally to display their minority-hating views in ways that would make the BNP proud. Which is why any blog article by Betsan that can't be used as a pretext for said airing of said views is automatically deemed as irrelevant or interesting.
Here's some news for you Noah: just because you and the cranks aren't posting your regulation 8 times a day doesn't mean the topic is boring. Because if you think that seeing 8 messages from Stoney, Wilko, Westy and the crew is a sign of a vibrant political issue of the day then you're in la-la-land.
You guys are priceless. I am glad my license fee is going towards your therapy.
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Noah, why do you right First Minister as "first minister" - are you trying to make some sort of point??
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Is Rhodri's replacement covered by the Government Scrappage Scheme? Will trading in the old banger for a newer model qualify for a cash incentive?
Will the new FM result in a reduction in hot air or will he/she blame the melting of the icecaps on the new Weslh Language Act.
Anyone know the answers??
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"It takes planning to find yourself in the right place to shake hands with Gordon Brown as he arrives to say a few words at Welsh night."
Oh YES, right Betsan! Gordon is truly the popular Vote Winner/Endorser! He has that certain magic "touch"! (have you been on the conference alko-pops already? Shame!)
Meanwhile Jessica Moredon turns up with Huw! Well, the voters of Newport W. will be so delighted that she's still alive.. she's been TOTALLY invisible for the past four years. Maybe Gordon can "touch her" too? Fix it Betsan. You are obviously "enthused"... and in Jackie Ashley territory. Nr. Barking.
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#1
I have to say that surprisingly I agree with Noah on this one. The topic has been done to death by the BBC. After ten years Wales isn't much, if any, better for Rhodri Morgan's leadership, or twelve years of Labour control of the Assembly.
This is the First Minister who turned up to open Wales' Maritime Museum in Swansea - in a red jumper, nearly as bad as turning up at the cenotaph in a donkey jacket lookalike. Uninspiring at best.
There is apathy, tremendous apathy, towards the world of politics in the UK and in Wales. The entire Westminster system stinks and ill-serves the population it serves. The Assembly is full of political pygmies, from all the parties. It lacks the power necessary to attract the brightest and the best.
I noted Rhodri's echoing at Bournemouth of Obama's.. "Wales can"... presumably thanks to his efforts. Regrettably Wales "hasn't and isn't and won't" unless and until it gets a sovereign democratic Parliament or Senedd to represent the interests of all its people.
In the meantime we will probably have to put up with the blandness of Carwyn Jones, until the donkey voters finally realise that the Labour party their grandfathers voted for hasn't existed for decades, and that they're all tories now.
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3 - Of course I meant 'write' not 'right'
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Be careful penddu or you'll soon have your countrymen hurling the childish abuse at you that was hurled at me for leaving the w off "wraps". But no, now I come to think on it that comment is really silly.
That sort of crass abuse is only hurled at the English or anti devolutionists and at those misguided people who view the imposition of the Welsh language onto people in those majority areas of Wales where it is not needed or wanted as an affront to the democratic will.
Strange old world, isn't it?
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Whoever wins is going to come up against a singular problem, are they qualified to provide an answer to prudent housekeeping .....
"The trouble with the Assembly, is it has run out of other peoples money", the modified words of Margaret Thatcher.
If only Labour had not compromised its honesty with the coalition ........
..... "so much spent by so few who forgot about the little people, those that matter, on the shrine of separation".
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If Carwyn Jones thinks that getting seen with Gordon Brown is going to help his "popularity" with general public in his "quest" to be First Minister then he's not as clever as some people think.Lets be honest the "shambles" over the ending of King Rhodri's reign,and the non appearance of any possible contenders for the post of FM when it becomes available is indicative of the labour party in its present condition. The "cuts" in public expenditure are already with us,but the real ones coming in next 18 months and thereafter will have dramatic impact on welsh economy which is so over reliant on the public purse for jobs/pensions etc etc. As we have seen in Germany when their economy goes "kaput" they swing to right and its new government will be very pro business/less european i.e subsidies for rest of europe and will fit in naturally with Conservative government in UK and Sarkozy in France.The Nationalists/Socialist in "government" down Bay of Irrelevance are going to have pretty hostile environment in REAL POWER politics to contend with in next ten years. No more dosh for graffiti walls in north wales and cut taxes for S4C down to realistic figures,considering the numbers who watch it!!
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Will they remember Igotitallwrongsorry down at your "Bay of Irrelevance", who it was that spent all the gold that the goose could lay, Plaid and King Morgan I recollect, an orgy of spending as if tomorrow would never come .....
..... but it did, now for payback.
..... and ..... then the wailing and gnashing of separatist teeth.
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To consolidate some comments from the unionist fringe here I think their clichéd comments just about some up 12 years of uninspired Labour Government:
Bay of Pigs
Bay of Irrelevance
Gravy Train
etc...
However rather than look to a positive, alternative future they wallow in negativity and call for it's closure. Is this the SE Wales way?
I do note that there doesn't seem to be much of an interest in Wales the Country as there is for Cardiff, Newport, Monmouthshire and Little England beyond Wales.
Hardly surprising there's so much apathy afoot these days...
Unfortunately, we do have to endure the death of the old guard of politicians until the youngsters who grew up with the Assembly work their way through their lives and into politics. Only then will the vibrant creativity that the Welsh are known for will come to the fore in whatever guise, whatever colour or party.
As despite opinoins on Adam Price, I for one greatly admire a politician who has the intelligence and humility to take a year out on a "political scholarship". Hopefully he'll learn something about politics outside of the UK and come back all the better for it. Of ocurse, he may fall into bed with the yanks but we'll have to wait and see on that one.
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message 12....
We had a very good future up until 1997.
The majority of the Welsh are not interested in what goes on, or comes out of, the Bay of Pigs, or the Bay of Irrelevance. nor what slides off the Gravy train, their attention is taken up in living a purely British, with American influence, lifestyle.
Not that they cannot see what has been going on in Cardiff, in their name, but without their permission.
They have no need to have their local authority covered by a totally worthless and unnecessary Cardiff Bay talk shop.
All that happens in this region of the UK can be managed adequately, in common with all other regions of the UK, by local councils, without the over-lording Assembly/WAG.
As I said once before, it comes across as, similar to your next door neighbour taking over your household budget, and directing, at an additional cost to you, your household budget.
You have run your household ever since you moved in, but now you must act according to the diktats of the next door neighbour.
Is neither funny, nor tolerable.
Its a rubbish method of governance, run by, and for, power hungry wasters with absolutely nothing to offer, but with the unquenchable thirst for control and power, and to have the means of expending tax funding in ways that are unsustainable in this modern economic climate..
It offers nothing for culture, makes the language issue one of conflict, division, and pressure, and it will ultimately split Wales from top to bottom, once the non Cymraeg speaking majority become fed up with the whole sad mess.
As for Price, he may well become contaminated with the Madison Avenue complex, which will mean ever more and more strident Cymraegification of Wales.
Bring it on son, we need you to accelerate the day of reckoning.
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additional to message 12...
It is not only the south, and south east Wales that should concern you, message 12, the same applies to the north east, and along the whole English/Welsh border, all of which, pretty well, follow the same 'cultural' and certainly political inclinations as those across the Dyke.
The only difference between areas being, the south and south east tend to opt for the West Country, the borders for the Midlands and the northeast for Manchester and Liverpool. These are the most densely populated areas of Wales, and will be the areas that will be the undoing of the nationalist agenda soon enough.
The largest part of Wales, Powys, almost as big as Yorkshire, is populated to a density of 25 persons to the square kilometre, not a very healthy demographic accounting on which to base reliability of governance for the future of the whole of Wales.
This leaves the south west and north west of Wales, again fairly low in population, and where the language matter holds most sway, again hardly the best sort of option to have ruling the areas where the language is hardly visible.
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Hate to disappoint you mappy, but I'm from the North Eastern borders and like many people I know, we are welsh and we resent English rule. So stop trying to speak on behalf of others.
Monmouthshire must be some heavenly place on earth coz up until 1997 the rest of wales was as poor and forgotten as it's always been.
By all means by the voice of Monmouth, but keep your own counsel regarding the North
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message 15....
I lived in Birkenhead for over twenty years, and running my own building business I worked all over the south of the Dee, I saw little evidence of a desire to be other than English speaking north Walians.
Not only that, but a vast number of the people in that area are not even Welsh, many being immigrants from Merseyside, the Wirral, Manchester and Cheshire in general. I cannot see those people rushing to cut ties from their original region of residence, especially when it comes down to having Cymraeg forced into them, or at least them having to cough up ever more tax to cover the cost of that enforcement.
Probably far more immigration than has occurred here in the south and south east in fact.
So I suggest it is you that are not as familiar with the area as you make out.
I would also suggest that far more than you will accept, look to both the east and the north for their cultural inspiration, as what little bit that may exist in Wales, is wrapped up in occasional folk festivals and the biggy one in Llangollen, which of course is not really a Welsh festival, but one based on international cooperative effort, and input.
You see Drivel, (how appropriate a name) unlike yourself I have not been locked into the incestuous type community that you appear to be part of, I have lived all over the world, not just here in south east Wales. That said I have as much right to speak for any part of Wales,. I am not myopic in my observation, and keep a close eye on this region, as well as an ear to the ground, when it comes down to what happens all over Wales.
You are NOT being RULED by England, you are a member of the British population, and your region is jointly involved in that union, or at least it was until the disaster that occurred in 1997, which has brought about all this claptrap about the English being our rulers and masters,
You are sounding like those other fools, who come over as childish and inane whenever someone defends the Wales we all live in, freely, and with the culture of Britain, over the last 2000 years, to fall back on..
I for one am not going to allow such a gaggle of clowns dissemble the UK just to satisfy some sort of false patriotism. What's being suggested is little short of sedition in fact, you may wish to re think your stance before you find yourself being castigated for such.
In the meanwhile keep it in mind, I am not as you may think I am, and what is more, I will speak for myself, but would point out to you, maybe your attitude to my commentary is based on your fear that I am right in what I say. Think that out.
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Re 16
You've really had a terrible day haven't you! Some Horlicks perhaps...
"In the meanwhile keep it in mind, I am not as you may think I am, and what is more, I will speak for myself, but would point out to you, maybe your attitude to my commentary is based on your fear that I am right in what I say. Think that out."
I tried, I really tried, but I thought this was an English language blog.
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17....
Did you say you had Ysgol Cymraeg education? Or maybe Chinese?
Either way you seem to have a blindness for the English language.
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M Ap Ex5
If you ever call me or my community incestuous again......
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M Ap Ex5,
Some answers please:
1) You state people south of the Dee have a desire to be nothing more than English speaking North Walians. What is wrong with being English speaking North Walians? You are constantly advocating the right for Welsh people to be English speaking Welsh people, now you say they area Enlgish aligned for being so?
2) As an incomer to the area or rather to Birkenhead, I think you made some valid points but the "natives" of North East Wales, people like myself, will all testify to the scourge of "scouse criminals" on the run coming to North Wales, the area is well known for it and I think you should consider that whilst you lived there, you were not born of there.
3) I've lived all over the world too, what difference does that make to your partially accurate description of incomers to North East Wales? Like I said, neither myself nor my community are incestuous and that type of scurrilous comment betrays your true personality.
4) It is a British parliament you are correct but even if the Welsh, Scots and Northern Irish MPS were to oppose a decision it would be passed as we are greatly outnumbered by English MPs. Therefore, we are ruled by England. If they desire something it will come to pass, take the scandalous flooding of the Treweryn Valley so that the city of Liverpool could sell on some water for profit, although officially it was for consumption.
5) Culture of the last 2000 years? The old culture in the last 2000 years is one of warfare. Successive waves of invaders eventually conquered and vanguished the indiginous way of life from popular expression, they used the peoples they conquered to wage war all around the world and expand an empire. The old culture to speak of was Welsh and Scottish culture which as I've said, was massacred by a militarily superior force.
6) Surely if you are what you claim to be, a welshman, it should read "WE" are not being ruled by England, not "YOU" are being ruled by England.
I could go on but it bores me to continue, much like reading your vast monologues riddled with latent agression and disparagement of others who do not tow your line.
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14 "It is not only the south, and south east Wales that should concern you, message 12, the same applies to the north east, and along the whole English/Welsh border, all of which, pretty well, follow the same 'cultural' and certainly political inclinations as those across the Dyke"
Interestingly the same areas of the country where the fascist BNP have the strongest support in Wales. Co-incidence or 'culture'?
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Well the borders are heavily populated by incomers so maybe not so much of a coindence......???
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#21 & #22
You both implied that incomers from England to Wales are supporters of BNP, disparaging remarks, both your comments should be moderated out because they are provocative, offensive and abusive towards the people of England.
You are both disgusting.
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messages 19 and 20....
I suggest you look up the word in the dictionary, if you take the attitude you have taken, then I suggest you look to your own mental state.
".... I worked all over the south of the Dee, I saw little evidence of a desire to be other than English speaking north Walians...."
...could you not understand that sentence?
You comment about 'scouse criminals' has nothing to do with the debate, that is just a scurrilous commentary put into your message for what purpose I cannot fathom. Or are you attempting to link myself with that unwelcome fraternity, I think if so, then I have far more right to be annoyed than you have by my use of the word you carped about, (look it up in the dictionary) I will keep reminding you to so do.
My reference to working abroad was to demonstrate I am not locked into a locally based mind set, and as you say you have done the same, I think you are probably nearer to my viewpoint than you may believe, if you think hard about what I have said.
I again suggest you take a moment to look up the meaning of that word that seems to be stuck in your throat.
The matter of being 'ruled' because there are more English MPs than the combined same from other regions, applies equally well to all other regions of the UK, what is to say that the Geordie's or Scousers are not to be upset if the Welsh, Scots and Irish vote with the other regional MPs to make laws that impact on Merseyside or Northumberland, Yorkshire, the midlands or the south west? Westminster is a melting pot, in which all have equal say, except, now we have this damned Assembly, the Welsh have a more than equal say.
Unless you live north of the Heads of the Valleys road that is, from there on up, the further north you go, the less input you can manage to effect. The whole thing is Cardiff-centric.
In reference to a 'superior force' gaining supremacy, well as they say
...'That is the way the cookie crumbles', if you can't hack it, take a hike to somewhere else to live, like your presumed ancestors did when they were displaced by invader pressures all those centuries ago.
Or to put it another way,...there ain't no going back! Live with it or shove off, Australia is a good bet, so my step son tells me, now he has emigrated 'down under'.
No matter how hard you wish, or pray, or plead, or gripe and grump, you will not alter the circumstances, you either 'go with the flow', 'bend in the wind' or 'suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune' (the Bard of Stratford).
As for the comment about 'you' and 'we'... it was you that expressed yourself as one of the downtrodden 'we', I am quite au fait with my British lot, and consider you to be a 'you' rather than a member of my happy breed who wish to remain British, I do not wish to be exclusively 'Welsh', because I do not see any practical or tangible difference between the people who live to the west of the Dyke, to those who live to the east of it.
The whole of Wales is now accessed and settled by incomers.
They are like that tattoo you got when you were pie-eyed one Saturday
night, almost impossible to remove.
What will you propose to do about that?
Once we get into the realm of exclusiveness, we start looking not for similarities, but for differences and disparities, I do not wish to follow the language and nationalist nutters along that path to Armageddon..
But you are liberty to do as you wish, be my guest. Go which ever way you want, but remember what I say, an enclosed mind set leads to rejection of all around you, and that is the present state of play being demonstrated by many who haunt these blogs with their nonsense over the status of modern Wales.
Finally for the person who made issue of the 'border' being populated by incomers....that may have been the case when all one had was Shanks' pony to travel on, but the railway and the motor car put paid to that notion, almost impossible to get shot of. Live with it, it will not change, more than likely it will be you that has to change, or perish in the end.
Dilution is the end result, your sons and daughters are already mixing it with incomers, or crossing over to the east to marry, and breed a new generation of Brits. With little chance they will take up the language in sufficient numbers to make its continuance worthwhile.
What will you propose to do about that?
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Stoney,
You're disgusting :p
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