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Betsan Powys | 10:14 UK time, Wednesday, 6 May 2009

Karl the unofficial, online bookie isn't thinking anniversaries of elections ten years ago. Oh no, the man's mind is on the odds for the European election results in Wales.

Four seats up for grabs here: Labour hold two, the Conservatives and Plaid one each.
So what's the big betting picture?

Not many of us will vote. Labour voters will stay at home but all the same, Labour will hang on to their second seat.

The bookie's thinking is this: turnout will be low, partly because of apathy, partly because there are no local elections to coincide with the European elections here and partly because Labour voters will stay home.

He offers 3-1 on turnout being down at 29%-30%.

Labour's vote will collapse but it won't go to the Conservatives. Labour voters will protest by not voting at all, not by voting Tory. Yes, the Conservatives will pick up votes that went to UKIP last time but he doesn't believe they'll win more votes than Labour, which they'd have to do to take that second seat from them. Last time round Labour got 297,810 votes to the Conservative 177,771.

The odds-in-the-ether he offers on Labour getting most votes are strong:


He offers odds of 3-1 on Labour losing their second seat, confident they'll hang on to it "through no fault of their own" as he puts it.


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