"Bring it on"
There's nothing like "a personal statement" in the morning to fill the lobby briefing room.
Alun Davies AM, Labour member for the Mid and West Wales region, announced that he's seeking nomination to be the Labour candidate in Blaenau Gwent come the 2011 Assembly Election. The candidate will be selected on July 14th.
He's been mooting the idea in private for a while and already been asked why on earth he'd swap a safe seat - there's no suggestion Labour would put him anywhere other than at the top of their list in the region next time - for a hard slog that could end with him an ex-AM, back running a public affairs firm.
His answer then was pretty much his answer today.
"I was born and brought up in Tredegar and I am committed to the communities in Blaneau Gwent. My heart is in these valleys. The Labour Government has invested and is investing, hundreds of millions of pounds in the regeneration of the Heads of the Valleys. No other party and no other government would prioritise these communities in this way".
And then the strategy. He clearly and fully intends to play the man - or in this case woman - as well as the ball.
Trish Law, he said, has not been around Cardiff Bay, has missed most votes, sits on one committee that hasn't met and has "largely done nothing ... She's invisible, especially when she's on her feet". On his regular visits to his family home in Tredegar, old school friends have been among those telling him of anger and frustration that Trish Law's promises to continue to fight for the area, as her late husband, Peter Law had done, were being broken.
Hang on, I ask. Only yesterday another man who lives in the consituency and whose heart is in Blaenau Gwent was telling me Labour are nowhere near winning back the seat. Over the weekend the former Labour council leader John Hopkins left the party, along with another Labour councillor. The party machinery is still in dire need of some serious repair work. And though Trish Law may not be a big beast in Cardiff Bay, she turns up for the Operatic Society do here and the school do there and that matters more to many voters than turning up in plenary sessions.
Yes, admitted Alun Davies, Labour needed a strategy in Blaenau Gwent that was different to the past. His aim would be to work with the community, re-build confidence in the community. Having lost Blaenau Gwent in four elections - General and Assembly - he's aware of the need to "renew Labour's contract with the people of Blaenau Gwent". But to Trish Law a simple message: "You've let the people down. I''m going to take you on and beat you".
Only then, of course, does the career risk he's taking if selected - swapping a safe seat in Mid and West Wales - with the fight for Blaenau Gwent, make sense. So why is he doing it?
His version? "I recognise there's a personal risk here but the bigger risk is to Blaenau Gwent. The biggest risk of all is that children and young people won't have the opportunities they deserve".
Then again he has fought Blaenau Gwent before. He fought it in the General Election in 1992 for a Plaid-Green alliance. Could he perhaps want to be seen to be taking a risk for Labour this time? Laying it on the line for Labour, to expunge any lingering doubts about his past with another party?
Trish Law sees things rather more simply.
"He'll be another fly by night - but bring him on!"
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~54~RS~)
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"Yes, admitted Alun Davies, Labour needed a strategy in Blaenau Gwent that was different to the past."
Who says New Labour doesn't do "REMORSE/PROFOUND"!
"Then again he has fought Blaenau Gwent before. He fought it in the General Election in 1992 for a Plaid-Green alliance" OH REALLY?
VIVA LA "DIFFERENCE"!!! (alwys check the wash label, this product can damage sensitive skin).
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Hmmm...
"Trish Law, he said, has not been around Cardiff Bay, has missed most votes, sits on one committee that hasn't met and has "largely done nothing ... She's invisible, especially when she's on her feet"."
I'm not sure why he has singled out Trish Law for such criticism - this could be a description of most members of the Welsh Assembly, to be honest..
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I thought he was talking about Irene James......
But seriously, love him or loathe him, that is the right attitude if he wants to win the seat - just not sure he will get nominated...
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A few things to keep in mind...
1. The rump of Labour members left in Blaenau Gwent are Labour to the core. They will not countenance supporting a former Nationalist, especially one to fought dirty against Llew Smith in 1992.
2. Much is being made of his "bravery". What's brave about pretending that you are throwing yourself into fighting a seat, while keeping your safe list seat at the same time? If he's serious about this, he should have hung up his list seat now.
3. Many of the, very personal, comments he made about Trish Law apply to hom just as much, laziness being one of them. Labour need a fighter in this seat, not a showboater with an attitude that screams "entitlement".
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The strategy. He clearly and fully intends to play the man - or in this case woman
Go for it Alun - the training with Plaid, years working with Labour. Experience, you can now put to good use.
Its going to be a good clean fight!
By the way - McBride & Draper are free - Gordon thinks they are too high profile for him to use again.
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If his heart is in the valleys, do I take it that his heart hasn't been - and isn't with the people of Mid and West Wales?
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Re 5
West-Wales
I'm glad to see that that nice toff of yours, Mr Cameron, is going to steer clear of all this nastiness nonsense. Excellent news then that his special adviser is a former editor of the News of the World!!!!
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Alun Davies said on Good evening Wales that Blaenau Gwent is one of the poorer areas in Wales and it needs a strong AM, being himself I suppose to represent it. What does that say about the other poor areas with Labour AMs representing them, such as Merthyr. Does that mean they are represented by weak AMs. Oops!!
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Betsan.....
I would be quite interested to see the attendance records of both Mr A Davies and Ms Trish Law.
However, I suspect that Ms Law is likely to be returned in the next round up, as being the sitting tenant, she is a fairly safe bet.
She would have to have taken some serious anti-local stance, which would raise the hackles of her constituents, to lose her seat.
Someone coming in to stand against her, therefore, would have to be ultra fit for the task, with a totally 'clean' record, and considering that Mr Davies has 'crossed the floor' once already, I doubt he will be acceptable to the constituency, even if heavily promoted by the Labour executive in the ward.
Even less acceptable if Ms Law has both a clean record, and a perceived decent work ethic, in her constituents eyes.
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Those of us who remember Alun from his Plaid days will not be hugely surprised by this "dramatic" twist.
I daresay that his attack on the good name of Trish Law will have tipped her off with plenty of warning to get her campaign for 2011 up and running to head Zanu Labour off at the pass!
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Alun Davies is taking a serious risk with his career here, but one which would be worth it for him if he pulled it off. Labour desperately need the seat back if they are serious about having complete control of Wales once again but in reality, that is a very unlikely scenario.
This is a career move for Alun Davies and he would gain significant kudos within Labour if he won the seat back; something he needs in order to bypass the block on his career created by his former Plaid roots.
His biggest problem is his consistent ability to make enemies, both within his own party and outside. Being capable of personal attacks along with a bit of a lazy streak, does not help endear him to the electorate and the voters of Blaenau Gwent will not put their trust in anyone who is not 'one of them'. Prof. Dai Smith's New Labour boy learnt that one the hard way.
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I find this a very interesting story. Because Labour do badly in first past the post elections in Mid and West Wales they are nearly always guaranteed a couple of top up seats for their 20% of the vote there (Plaid's vote is up in the mid-30s). So Alun Davies is perfectly safe where he is.
Yet it is also true to say that Labour is in a mess in some of its "taken for granted" strongholds, and nowhere was this more eloquently demonstated than in Blaenau Gwent. Labour's greatest problem is its local structures and heirarchies. In too many instances they are a carry-over from the days when Labour reigned supreme in the Valleys .... with the result that timeserving, rather than ability, was the way to get to any position of power. Blaenau Gwent was more "Old Labour" than most, and therefore had the guts to rebel when New Labour started to try and reform the party by imposing a "new broom" candidate.
The problem is that Peoples Voice have shown themselves remarkably unable to come up with an alternative. Apart from the mantra, "we are fresh, new, exciting and the voice of change" (which is how ANY group will portray itself) PV have come up with nothing new or radical. It's very hard to figure out what their policies actually are, and the only one that I remember reading of was their plan for free public transport ... something which they lifted from the Scottish Socialist Party, probably their closest political equivalent.
What they certainly could not do is make any headway at local level. At the local elections last year, PVBG won only 5 seats. Labour won 17. All the signs indicate that the seat is there for Labour to win back, but Labour must get its act together in order to do it.
And that of course leads to this question: What Labour? For there are two very different versions on offer in Wales, one in favour of more devolution, and one very much against. All the signs are that the local party is in disarray, so someone like Alun Davies could be just the person that is needed to give the local party a new sense of direction ... one that is focussed more on Wales than Westminster. That would be good.
But on the other hand Labour does have a habit of swallowing its victims. When Alun Davies defected, he probably did so with a 50/50 mix of hunger for power and a sense of disillusion that people in Wales could ever get more self-government than the Labour Party in Westminster was willing to give us. However the clear indication from the polls is that the people of Wales now want far more devolution than Labour in Westminster is prepared to give us:
- a 13% margin in favour of primary law making powers
- a Senedd with law making AND tax setting powers is the most popular of the various models for governing Wales
- an agreement that the Senedd should have more influence over our lives than Westinster by a margin of nearly three to one
If Alun Davies still has enough conviction to fight for these things then I'll put his defection to one side and wish him well for the sake of Wales. Of course I'd prefer to see Plaid elected, but in Blaenau Gwent that's probably a long shot.
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message 12....
The comments laid out below, (from your last message), do not bring an end in sight,for the simple reason they all act in enforcing the 'belief', but NOT FACT, that the deal is done and dusted.
They are no more, or less, than that being sought by the All Wales Convention. Effectively speaking a confirmation of what the Assembly WAG is after. Acceptance of what is already there, with more to come.
"- a 13% margin in favour of primary law making powers
- a Senedd with law making AND tax setting powers is the most popular of the various models for governing Wales
- an agreement that the Senedd should have more influence over our lives than Westminster by a margin of nearly three to one"
It will be far more rational to have a further, or even primary, question included, ...
......"do we need this third tier of governance?"
The percentage figures my be more presentable, by a 'get out' option being offered.
Even more so by the electorate being given full facts of where this lot can lead them to.
But the slimy gang in the Bay know only too well how to pose their questions.
That is why you are able to list those three questions, with the idea you seem to think it is all cut and dried.
Believe me, it is not.
As for Alun Davies, when the election/referendum is over, we shall then have time to reflect on his involvement and contribution, SHOULD he be successful, that is.
Personally, although I hold no brief for Ms Law, I hope she wipes the political floor with him.
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I am reminded of the comment made by Prince Metternich (I think )who upon being informed of the death of a fellow diplomat remarked " now what could he mean by that?"
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message 15.....
... and I am minded to quote, 'get a life, get real, grow up, learn to read and COMPREHEND!
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Well done mapexx!
Answering your very own message 15 ... with message 15!
I never thought you'd realize how much it applied to you. But I'm pleased that the penny has finally dropped.
Yet, sadly, I think your memory is so short that you'll soon forget your own advice and be back to your usual form in the very next message you post. Please don't disappoint us.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
message 16...
A simple mistake, which anyone with a grain of intellect should have, and would have realised, but of course it's another chance to have a snide little dig at yours truly, is it not?
Which, of course, speaks volumes for the way your mind works.
How about, for a life shaking change, trying to respond to matters under discussion, and stop the infantile search for typing errors?
A further suggestion, try using the English version on your spellcheck, we write 'realise' in the UK.
Unless you happen to be across the 'Pond'.
In which case, if you are, excuse me.
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