Cold baths
Back from a break where I got an early feel for "efficiency savings in backroom technology". In other words there was no television. There was no computer either, no access to blogs, be they good, bad or plain ugly. Strangest of all was being cut off from the blogosphere only to read-all-about-it when the plain ugly amongst them hit the headlines a few days in.
So back yesterday to the sound of civil servants dusting down their calculators and preparing for some complex maths tomorrow that will reveal how deep a cut the Chancellor's "efficiency savings" will leave in the Welsh budget.
So far the maths - and worse case scenario total - according to the Finance Minister, Andrew Davies, had been going like this: a cut of £292m as a result of savings of £5b forced on Whitehall departments; a loss of £120m from the capital budget because of money brought forward to combat the recession and another £75m cut in capital spending due to underspends in the UK Department of Health.
His "perfect storm" maths - plenty of subtraction, very little adding up - led to a scenario of £500m disappearing from the Welsh budget. Public sector organisations have been asked to "wargame" what a 2% cut in their budgets would mean but also, where a 5% cut would leave them. The answers? 2%. Doable with belt tightening. 5%? Job losses, services to the public cut.
Now? Even worse to come, or a case of whipping up an even stormier scenario only to reveal that things aren't, after all, quite that bad?
Back too to thoughts on the Devolution Decade, a conference organised by the Institute of Welsh Affairs, supported by the All Wales Convention. Sir Emyr Jones Parry, who must have taken to rehearsing that neutral face in the bathroom mirror, took it all in and let little out but it's fair to say the nay-sayers in the room were well outnumbered.
What the audience got for the first few hours wasn't, you suspect, what they'd expected. They listened to an almost relentlessely negative view of what's happened to the Welsh economy, what's been achieved for Welsh schools and hospitals over the past ten years. Between them the Prof, the Economist, the Education adviser and his Health expert delivered what the Chair called "a cold bath."
It was "wrist slitting time" suggested one who was near the front. Others might console themselves with the thought that cold baths are meant to be shocking but rather good for you.
Supporters of "efficiency savings" will perhaps be rehearsing the argument already that tomorrow's budget will deliver one hell of a shock but one that just has to pay off.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~54~RS~)
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Reading the reports of the conference suggest that the speakers only said what everyone has been thinking in private for a number of years. Devolution has been a disappointment and reading the Maclaren Report from Scotland suggest that more powers a la Ecosse will probably not make much difference. The whole idea of devolution was that it would make a real difference to the lives of ordinary people in Wales. Take away the populist gimmick policies offering free this and that and what has the Assembly really achieved is the question many are still asking . If the Assembly hasn't achieved a great deal in its first 10 years when it received large increases from the UK government also poses the question of what will it do in a very different financial climate over the next 10 years. It would help if we had 60 politicians who had some idea of the practical policies required to take Wales through the next 10 years. The era of easy government and gimmicks are over. Instead of talking about efficiency savings Assembly politicians have to start thinking which areas will be cut and which areas will see increases in their money to improve the economic wellbeing of Wales. They also have to think outside the box and tell the various interest groups which spend so much time lobbying the Assembly that what matters is what works for the majority not the pet schemes of the minority.
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The idea that Wales must forever depend on the public service for jobs is nonsense. If we had more of an 'enterprise culture' which did not penalise entrepreneurs with red tape and taxes, this might not be the case.
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Is this the standard BBC political blog response to what has happened this last couple of weeks?
Nick Robinsons response .
"I spent the past two weeks not just out of the country but away from virtually all sources of news".
Bethans response
"Back from a break where I got an early feel for "efficiency savings in backroom technology". In other words there was no television. There was no computer either, no access to blogs, be they good, bad or plain ugly. Strangest of all was being cut off from the blogosphere only to read-all-about-it when the plain ugly amongst them hit the headlines a few days in".
What are we to think?
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Welcome back. Hope you had a good break.
It would be wrong to paint a totally negative picture of the Assembly 10 years on. There has been some good thinking, as has been demonstrated by the ideas taken on by Westminster. The Assembly has indeed shown that it can think for itself and not be an extension of Westminster, unlike it's predecessor.
Unfortunately it is also clear that what good it has done does not justify the amount of money that has been spent on it. The only time they have managed to get beyond their Wales County Council image was when Labour were forced into a coalition after the last election. Although I am not a Plaid voter it is obvious that the injection of new blood and different thinking has been beneficial. Perhaps some of the longer serving Labour Ministers should now consider making way for new talent.
The problems that are facing Wales were very much summed up by the follow-up programme you made concerning the Cynon valley family you visited 10 years ago. The tragedy of the situation that you found was compounded by the the ease with which it could have been prevented simply by good parenting.
This is symptomatic of the malaise that is affecting Wales - whole communities have simply given up on education and work and have been happy for the state to take on the responsibility of providing an income.
If there is to be any hope for a better Wales then the Assembly must tackle these attitudes and deal with people like this family. The message has to go out loud and clear from Cardiff Bay - the benefits culture has to stop! Learn and train for a career! If there's no work locally go where there is work, if you can afford booze and fags you can afford petrol or bus/train fares! Get off your backsides and take responsibility for yourselves and your children!!
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Professor Kevin Morgan said at the conference to mark the forthcoming 10th anniversary of devolution .....
Describing the absence of a link between prosperity and autonomy as "devolution's dirty little secret", he said: "On the basis of the economic trends over the last 10 years, it is at least arguable that we have been devolving our way to relative economic decline." ..... source The Western Mail today.
A sad but predicted indictment of Welsh politics.
And at a time when we need the very best ..... at the helm.
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Happy returns Betsan, I bet you wished you'd stayed away.... no?....
What?..... are you such a sucker for punishment?.
Anyway, to get to the point....
The best thing the little Darling can do for Wales is to pull the budget completely, we all know it, the WAG, is only going to clamour for yet more money, it has to, so it can pacify all those it has taken on board whilst holding out the tempting 'forever golden pay packet' these public servants all seem to hanker after.
Why perpetuate a ghastly enterprise, which is costing us the taxpayer, more than a small, fortune, which to date has provided nothing that was supposedly promised, when the thing kicked off in 1997.
Little has been achieved, and at an enormous cost.
Last year it set the taxpayer back nearly £400 millions just to administer the Cardiff Bay gravy train, and if taking an average of £300 Millions per annum, for the last ten years has run up a staggering 3 billions,....
..... to what end?
I, as an ordinary man in the street, could have put such a vast sum to work for the PEOPLE in Wales, not for just a bunch of moronic self servers.
Think of the new roads we could be enjoying, the new hospitals, the new schools.
Instead of which, all we have is a talking shop which produces little more than hot air.
But it's very good at creating committees, and off shoots like the AWC, a very expensive exercise in persuasion, but what else of worth, or value, for that 3 billions or so?
Welcome back,. did I already say that?
Well never mind, a few more weeks until your next vacation, maybe by then we can set Wales to rights, and because it is your blog that gets the best of the best, to answer for Wales an, the Welsh, maybe you will get the honours when things take a turn for the better.
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Of course if you scrapped the whole Welsh administration you would still need civil servants to run things in Wales, so Mappex instead of employing people in Wales to administer Wales that 400 million would be spent in England, mainly in London. We would lose any democratic control over our administration, we would be no better off and have to put up with the PFI/Foundation Hospital/Sats and other abominations perpetrated on England by the Government there.
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Lyn_Thomas wrote at #7
" ...... and other abominations perpetrated on England by the Government there."
..... then we have the synonyms of abomination ....
* detestation
* loathing
* abhorrence
* disgust
* aversion
* loathsomeness
* odiousness
..... tad over the top .....
Biblical even .....
Fortunately, if the Union has made such heinous errors, they can be undone after the next election, such is democracy.
mapexx is right, when he writes of the profligate spending on projects that have little value to Mr and Mrs (and Ms) average.
And the words of David Reynolds, Professor of Education, University of Plymouth, at the same conference as #5 above .....
..... he said investment per pupil by Welsh education authorities was now, on average, 9.5% less than in England.
What was the term Lyn_Thomas used .....
..... ah yes, abomination .....
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message 7....
Agreed, there would still be the requirement for administrators to administer, however, I have seen no need for them to be concentrated in Cardiff Bay, and spread like jam all over Wales in little offices where, in effect, they do nothing but duplicate local authorities.
Which returns me to that very point,
As there is a perfectly viable administration construct in Wales, the local authorities, why do we need anything else?
As a region of the UK, we need no more than any other region of the UK, and as I have asked before, allowing for sporting matters, how do we differ, or deserve
anything more than all other regions?
These are run quite adequately, WITHOUT a very costly third tier of governance, or Assembly, over and above them.
Somehow you people attach an importance to Wales that, outside of sport, it neither warrants or deserves, certainly it does not earn, considering the vast amount of taxpayer subsidy it receives.
So yes, the region needs to be administered, but not in the way now in operation.
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I am afraid Mappex you are on your own in this one, the National Assembly and the Welsh Office before it did not duplicate what local government did, quite a different set of powers and responsibilities. Now I do not doubt that some power could be profitably devolved down to local councils, and in turn the unitary authorities pass on some of their powers to Community Councils, which after all are grass roots democracy in action, however the bulk of what is done by the Welsh Government is completely different from local government.
Once again you don't grasp that we aren't just another region of the UK we are one of its constituent nations, I know you don't agree with this but this is the position as understood by the overwhelming majority of people in Wales. We have different needs to that of England, as has been seen by the different policies to England in education.
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message 10....
I may be on my own but I am not so stupid as to believe that Wales is any different than any other region of the UK.
NO other region needs an overbearing and totally unnecessary Assembly to manage things.
You say tnhe Assembly WAG does what the LA's does not do, I wonder why?
Couldn't be that all, and I mean ALL, of it's functions are simply 'invented' to give cause to it's existence could it?
You will no doubt say, 'Of course not' .
In whcih case, please explain to me why Wales needs, what the rest of the UK does not need.
You will tell me next your home needs to have a lodger installed who will take over your budget, the running of your house, and all that goes on within, whilst your next door neighbour does all of it without the same sort of lodger installed.
It is you that is wrong, facts speak for themselves, and the facts are, Wales is a region of the UK, rather a larger territorial region than others, and therefore could do with bisection, but nowhere near a 'nation' than Yorkshire or east Anglia, the Midlands or the North West.
We have NO needs that are different from the needs of any of part of England, particularly in education, where we are falling behind, thanks to idiotic policy from the WAG.
The current budget has made it clear that 425 millions must be reuced from the Welsh economy. I have no doubt the Assembly will state this cannot be done without cuts to this or that essential servicce.
But the one 'service' that could save just about that amount is the unessential Assembly itself.
Cut that, and Wales budgetary problems are solved at a stroke.
As for it's, again unnecessary, employment roster, that is what the Job Centres are for.
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Re 11
Amongst all the other nonsense, there is just economic nonsense and naivety in the statement:
"But the one 'service' that could save just about that amount is the unessential Assembly itself.
Cut that, and Wales budgetary problems are solved at a stroke."
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Mapexx is continiung in his obssessive deluded quest again:
He said 'No other 'region' needs an Assembly to manage things....and Why Wales needs what rest of UK does not need.
I will simply say Scotland and Northern Ireland and leave it at that.
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FiDafydd - he demonstrates his economic nonsense and naivety in around 50% of his posts.
In anther 50% he focusses on his linguistic paranoia.
But the rest are OK.
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message 14....
I referred to England, you know it, but are just as normal being obtuse, as well as pedantic.
But never mind, both Scotland and NI are pretty well as deep in the mire as is Wales anyway.
Devolution has not been the bed of roses, rather a plot of thistles for Scotland, and no pot of gold at the end of te rainbow for the leprechauns either.
Message 15....
But yours, being 100% tripe has a great deal to recommend it then?
And just to make it very plain, my take of the language to which you refer is not as damaging to it as your constant drivel on the subject.
What is not being understood by you and your pals, is as Swatthegnat has said, you are using it as a bit of a nasty tool to further your ambitions, and NOT All to whom the language is part and parcel of their lives, like the way you are so doing, will, or do, thank you for so abusing it.
Keep it up, you will learn the lesson of what can come from your over strident commentary about the language.
In fact, I would hazard a guess and say you are not even fluent yourself, except in nonsense.
Probably one of those who told a lie on the census form, saying you are fluent, when all you are capable of is just about understanding the odd word or place name, but make out you are so, in order to cause consternation on here, along with your butty with the big head with no contents.
I note with interest you have nothing to say to swatthegnat. Frightened he will give you a verbal kicking maybe, for attempting to speak for him, when he is obviously antipathetic to your style?
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Once again Maapex you make some valid points In my school days we learnt
English and basic welsh as part of the curriculum and the same in the
grammar up to year two where the pupils with parental consent had a choice either to take art,french or welsh.But throughout we were given a choice and in those days there was no 'nastiness' between welsh and English speakers that only came with the rise of Plaid.I well remember the hordes from the north descending on this quiet market town in support of a by-election filling the bars and pubs and 'ramming the language down our throats'an act that thankfully proved counterproductive in the next election.
I think for our town it was our second darkest hour(the first being when
the bandit Glyndwr burnt and ransacked our monastry destroyed our books of learning and historical records and killed fifty of our welsh ancestors)because they brainwashed many welsh speakers into thinking that they 'had' to vote Plaid.They most certainly have used the language as a tool to further their political aspirations but already the over
eighteens are 'choosing' to speak English as they find work and broaden their horizons as they say in these heartlands 'you can brainwash a horse to water but you can't 'compel' him to drink.'
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thegnatswatter
I'm afraid that the Welsh language, as with many elements of cultural evolution in Wales, is being replaced by English.
Unfortunately we have minorities that insist on the continuous use of Welsh, this in a world that has very little opportunity for its practice, except where the majority subsidise its intensive care through inappropriate subsidy.
It will be interesting to see how much money is lavished on its support during the difficult months and years ahead, it's not so difficult a choice deciding whether to support the deceased when there are so many of the living in need of resources.
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message 19....
Whilst I am thankful there are people like 'thegnatswatter', I must point out in response to your quote below....
"Unfortunately we have minorities that insist on the continuous use of Welsh, this in a world that has very little opportunity for its practice, except where the majority subsidise its intensive care through inappropriate subsidy."
It is ONLY because there IS the language, that we are into such a debate as this, without it, there would be no peg to hang the hat of Welsh devolution, or poterntial independence, on, anyway.
The unfrotunate thing is, 'thegnatswatter', along with others who think along the same lines as he, must bear the brunt of the garbage pumped out, supposedly on his behalf, by the likes of Plaid, and some who put in a regular appearance on these blogs.
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Listened to Andrew Davies AM on the Politics Show today.
Confident,flattered to be considered as a leadership contender, Welsh economy going well, Labour working for Wales, all under control, Wales is OK.
Pity the bit on the Welsh NHS followed - sort of brought reality into fairy land.
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apexx wrote
'You will tell me next your home needs to have a lodger installed who will take over your budget, the running of your house, and all that goes on within, whilst your next door neighbour does all of it without the same sort of lodger installed.'
Ape, I suppose you would hand over your weekly earnings to your neighbour and let him decide how to spend it on your behalf
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17 - No Mapexx - you did not refer to England - you said and I quote -
"I may be on my own but I am not so stupid as to believe that Wales is any different than any other region of the UK."
So are you changing your statement to say that Wales is just a region of England???
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17 and then again if you are talking about "regional" assemblies, then the Greater London Authority has also pased you by as well.
Why cant you just be honest about your agenda - you are no different than the white elite who ruled South Africa for years because the indigenous majority could not be trusted.
Well despite the predictions South Africa has prospered since real democracy was achieved, and the same will be true for Wales when we rid ourselves of despotic rule from Westminster.
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messages 23 and 24.....
OK! you got me,... big deal, I deliberately did not refer to England as such, because I thought you were intelligent enough to understand I was not referring to parts of the UK that were already 'devolved'.
But my fault for attributing to you that which is patently absent.
It may also have passed you by that London is four times larger than Wales, in population levels, and a hundred times larger in economic terms, yet it runs with a Mayor and a council, which also encompasses all the other smaller units contained in the Greater London regional area.
All without screeching for independence, or law making powers, over and above, or apart from, that of the national government of the UK.
But once again you opt for the 'other nation' card, by mentioning South Africa. Unfortunately you are somewhat not up to date in current affairs, South Africa has vast deposits of valuable minerals, Diamonds, which does not imply jewelry, but industrial sorts, Gold, again not for earrings and bracelets, but for gold plating vast quantities of industrial electronic switchgear etc.
Coal, and a variety of other mineral wealth, NONE of which Wales has.
But all of which are currently suffering from shortages of orders, due to the global retraction of trade.
AS for the indigenous majority, I find that a rather strange quote considering the majority of our indigenous population seem quite happy to be British first, and Welsh second. Unless a rugby game is ongoing.
But to return to S Africa, I deny it has 'prospered' since the fall of Apartheid, although the people now have full democratic rights denied to them for many decades by the white supremacists of latter years, their economy has not done much better, if at all since the ANC took over the reins of government there.
I suggest you would not wish to live in, or near, any of the major cities there for fear of your life, the murder rates are the highest in the world, robbery is off the scale of any method of measurement, and the slums are hardly touched, for all the ANC promised it would do for it's supporters, in fact, much as was promised for the Welsh by a devolved legislature, but with similar results
In fact I heard the new Premier, only two days ago, saying he hoped to get over the collapse in world financial problems that had hit south Africa hard.
You must be in a minority of about ten to even have the gall to state that the rule by Westminster is despotic.
The freedoms you have, coupled to the benefits your and your fellow travellers receive, come from and are maintained in perpetuity by that self same Westminster.
You are just an ungrateful person, but thankfully there are few like you.
Being so very naive, I suggest you get your facts right before attempting to argue with me.
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penddu and Plaid are a little off colour at the moment mapexx ..... so the rhetoric will become a tad acidic....
..... this is since Rhodri confirmed everything was off .... except cooperating with Westminster.
Plaid has become yesterday's news .....
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SM - I am not at all off colour - very pleased with the ongoing campaign for the Welsh Parliament - not at all concerned with some of the idiotic rhetoric coming from the anti-devolutionsts.
I can not speak for Plaid as I am not a member or regular supporter - but I will let the polls speak for themselves - and in particular the next euro-elections in June. I expect Plaid to achieve around 25% and win 1 of the 4 Welsh seats - a good result would be achieving 25-28% - an excellent result would be to overtake Labour and win a second seat. Conversely, a disappointing result would be in the low 20s - and a disastrous result (yesterdays news...) would be to score less than 20%.
So SM - lets wait for 5 weeks or so before making rash unsubstantited statements
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Penddu you should be worried.The delegates who voted for a coalition under duress can see that Rhodri's Folly has not only split the party
but alienated the grey brigade they are backpeddling at a rate of knots
and with a good 'old labour' candidate taking the lead for leadership it
doesn't look good for you. Your party's done what Rhodri wanted,to stay in power theres no obligation when he retires.As for your predictions
dream on. The only way Plaid could achieve those figures were if the under 11's were allowed a vote!
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28 - I wont argue about my predictions - There will be a vote in 5 weeks time and you may quote my predictions back at me then.
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Re 29
I think you'll be right Penddu.
The anti-Welsh brigade are becoming stranger and stranger, day after day after day ... They must be really worried about something!!
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FiFiDafydd.
I take offence at being labelled anti-welsh you supercilious pipsqueak.
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message 31....
That is the only sort of response you will find coming from that person.
He has some sort of death wish for Wales, each and every time he responds it is to cast aspersions on the credibility, or credentials, of TRUE WELSH people, which leads me to believe he is not from Wales at all.
Like certain others, who make claims for their own 'patriotism', but by the means of so doing, make it totally unbelievable that they are what they say they are.
IF they are indeed Welsh, which I doubt, then all I can believe is, they are sent onto these boards, deliberately, to cause friction between people who, like you are natural Anglo/Cymraeg fluents, and those from Welsh areas, that by nature, do not share you linguistic capabilities in the two languages of Wales.
So both you and I, as well as anyone else who criticises their demeanour, or their attachment to the Assembly/WAG concept, are anti language, anti Welsh, but in the main Anti any idea that we have a freedom of speech, which of course means also, to write what we wish on any subject, permissible by the house rules.
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Re 31
... I take offence by being called FiFi.
mapexx's outbursts of disgut at someone attacking his ideas, when he consistently attacks the person - quite often in very dubious ways - are, nevertheless, some of the funniest things on the whole of the World Wide Web.
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message 33...
Strange sort of comments from one suffering from tunnel vision.
Been observing yourself in nthe mirror again?
Get this, what you see reflected there is yourself, not mappex.
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Re 34
Is this mirror supposed to be inside a tunnel??!!
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Message 35...
Seems you do not know your own bathroom.
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Re 34
You said:
"Get this, what you see reflected there is yourself, not mappex."
Can't you spell your own name mapexx?
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Message 37...
Apparently not Fi Fi.
But it's my choice, not yours.
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