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Mind the gap.

Betsan Powys | 17:01 UK time, Thursday, 26 February 2009

Ok, so it's a snapshot.

It suggests plenty but proves nothing. It's an opinion poll that has sought the views of a thousand people in Wales and no more but boy, it's good to have it.

You'll find the details here.

The headline? More than half - 52% - of the thousand people questioned say they'd vote for the Assembly to have full law-making powers. As far as we can tell - and there's been some digging - it's the first time the yes vote to this sort of question in this sort of poll has passed the 50% mark.

But hang on.

The result this time last year? A yes vote of 49%. So let's note the symbolism but recognise that of more significance is that gap of 13% between the yes and no votes: 52% to 39%. The gap is growing year on year. Last year it was 49% to 42%. I gather another poll conducted recently (which may be work done for the All Wales Convention, maybe not) found exactly the same gap between yes and no.

But enough of a gap to trigger a referendum? Enough of a shift to tempt the politicians to go for it? Absolutely not.

The margin is growing - and in your comments I look forward to see how many concentrate on the 'slowly', how many on the 'surely'.


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