The Hart and the sword
Here's an image for you: Edwina Hart holding a double-edged sword.
It isn't mine - it's Karl the bookie's. He's been galvanised into giving us his latest odds on the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan as leader of the National Assembly Labour Party, or as Karl puts it, the "Carwyn leadership bid".
Carwyn Jones, the Counsel General and AM for Bridgend is in North Wales today spreading the message that only a vote for Labour can deliver future prosperity for the North and that he's dead set against independence.
He goes even further North - to Iceland - to make his point.
"That country has virtually gone bankrupt while Britain, under the leadership of Gordon Brown, has been leading the world in developing progressive policies to address the financial crisis. That's why Labour is a devolutionist party, not a separatist party. Labour is a unionist party and we belive that the future of North Wales lies with a Labour-led Assembly and a Labour Government at Westminster".
But Karl the bookie has been looking closer to home. A year ago, he says Carwyn Jones had the race in the bag. Now? Read on:
4/7 Carwyn Jones
2/1 Huw Lewis
7/2 Edwina Hart
25/1 Eluned Morgan
So why is he no longer the odds on certainty to take the job?
The bookie's looking at the national picture. The momentum's with the Conservatives and "if this was to boil over onto the Welsh front, the next Welsh election will be a political betting minefield". It also means Carwyn Jones could be unseated from Bridgend where his performance last time round didn't impress the bookie. Majority went down 2.3% to 40.3% in a seat classed as marginal: swing required - 5.2%
And so he looks to Health Minister and Gower AM Edwina Hart even though her majority, incidentally, went down 9.5% to 34.2% in a seat clased as highly marginal: swing required - 2.2%. Karl concludes that she could glean enough support to prevent a Jones the Counsel General coronation only to find that she's let Huw Lewis, the Merthyr AM in through the back door. Got the double-edged sword? On the other hand she could back the Bridgend AM and see him safely in Rhodri's seat.
Eluned Morgan who is soon to stand down as an MEP? He has her down as the favourite come the next leadership election - calculating that if Carwyn Jones wins this time and then loses his seat, there could be another run at the leadership election round the corner.
Back to the Edwina Hart image. I'd bet on only one thing: that when Edwina Hart makes up her mind and is clear about her position, then we will all know exactly where she stands. It's rare for her not to make her position crystal clear after all and I don't imagine this will be any different.
She will also have done enough homework to be as sure as she can be that joining the race doesn't hand victory to anyone else. If she wants the job and calculates that she can win it, then she will: Ms Hart will be Queen. If she doesn't or can't then at the very least, Edwina Hart will be kingmaker.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~16~RS~)
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Suddenly Rhodri Morgan looks like a good leader.
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Carwyn Jones referring to Iceland:
"That country has virtually gone bankrupt while Britain, under the leadership of Gordon Brown, has been leading the world in developing progressive policies to address the financial crisis. That's why Labour is a devolutionist party, not a separatist party. Labour is a unionist party and we belive that the future of North Wales lies with a Labour-led Assembly and a Labour Government at Westminster".
Carwyn, why...
1) has the Pound Sterling plummeted against the other major currencies, under the unesteemed leadership of the man who must have been the worst Chancellor ever?
2) did McBroon and Sooty tell us only weeks ago that the UK was best placed to face the coming recession, when it appears to the rest of the world that that UK is in the worst position?
3) have most of the UK's banks either gone or nearly gone bust?
4) did McBroon sell the UK's gold reserves at a knock-down price?
5) does Germany believe that a VAT cut (costing billions in borrowed money, which we the taxpayers will have to repay over many years) is ineffective when prices are falling?
6) not refer to the Republic of Ireland (closer to Wales' population size) and its prosperity, higher GDP and standard of living? Ireland is in a far better place to weather the recession than is the UK.
7) not admit that Labour ISN'T a devolutionist party? Under Blair and Brown there has been far greater centralisation. The Assembly is a sham parliament with only some administrative functions. It is under the control of Westminster. The Scots got a devolved Parliament, not because Labour favoured it, but because it was afraid that the Scots would go directly for independence if they didn't get a little devolution.
8) not be honest with the people of Wales, that for a century the Labour Party has done nothing for our country? It is impoverished, one of the poorest regions in the EU, twice designated for Objective One funding - handouts to the poor.
9) not tell the people of North Wales that their future under a Labour administration will continue to be bleak, as bleak as it will be under the Tories, because the Labour party is nothing but another tory party?
10) keep telling us about jam tomorrow? With Labour that tomorrow never comes, except when its time to clear up the mess which Labour has created every time its been in government. Remember how Healey devalued sterling and Jim fixed it for us, in 1979, with the winter of discontent. Now, McBroon is digging an enormous pit of debt.
"4/7 Carwyn Jones
2/1 Huw Lewis
7/2 Edwina Hart
25/1 Eluned Morgan"
What difference will it make which of these Labour nonentities leads the party in Wales? Its only the tail of a Westminster dog. Its a party which needs to be consigned to the history books, no longer relevant. Why vote Labour when you can get the real thing by voting Cameron?
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brynt41, your .....
'What difference will it make ..... Why vote Labour when you can get the real thing by voting Cameron?'
If what you write is true, and I'm not fighting you on this issue, who is there to represent the electorate.
Who is willing to put the people above party policy ?
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#3 TheStonemason wrote:
"'What difference will it make ..... Why vote Labour when you can get the real thing by voting Cameron?'
If what you write is true, and I'm not fighting you on this issue, who is there to represent the electorate.
Who is willing to put the people above party policy ?"
An excellent and perceptive question. The electorate will be in a quandary, especially in Wales, which has been loyal to Labour for so very long, and has had little to show for it.
From the little I know of the LibDems and their policies, I understand that Clegg could be described as to the right of Cameron, but not as far to the right as McBroon. Its a party with no real direction. I suspect it will go in whatever direction its leaders think will achieve power. Cynical? Unfortunately too true of politics in the UK.
For those who fear further devolution or self-government for Wales, its an even greater dilemma. PC has its shortcomings, for sure. It lacks intelligent and decisive leadership, and has managed to get itself bogged down in 'Assembly politics' which is what I suspect the Labour intentions were from the outset, when they agreed to the pitifully weak devolution proposals in 1997.
A vote for the unionists will mean more of the same for Wales. If you believe the propaganda that without England, we're sunk, they keep us afloat, because we're totally useless and incompetent here, then you have to vote for more of the same.
I take the view that we in Wales are no different to most of the other 200 or so peoples who have self-government. Quite capable of running our own affairs, and doing it well.
It would be a mistake to look at how the Assembly works as an example. Its full of donkeys, because the political diet there is oats. It takes real power to develop a political class. We have witnessed the birth of that at Holyrood, even though the Scots' Parliament lacks power too, but it does have some teeth. The Assembly doesn't even have gums, hehe.
We need statesmen/women. Imho not one of the parties has any at the moment.
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If you are correct, your .....
'It would be a mistake to look at how the Assembly works as an example.'
..... raises the question .....
'Should the Assembly be disassembled and then reassembled in a form fit for purpose, from a blank canvas.'
Your ultimate statement .....
'We need statesmen/women. Imho not one of the parties has any at the moment.'
None at all ?
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
#5 The Stonemason:
"'We need statesmen/women. Imho not one of the parties has any at the moment.'
None at all ?"
Care to name one?
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message 2....
1...The pound has plummeted because the government wisely decided to appease domestic and business, by lowering interest rates to a more acceptable domestic level. This has seen off the money speculating gang of robbers who reside outside the catchment area of the British tax cover.
2... What may seem to you that the PM and Chancellor have done wrong, seems to all of our European partners, yes, even Germany, that they have done the best thing possible, under the circumstances, I see that as being best placed to weather the storms ahead.
3... No more or less than the rest of the global banking system. So that is a rather lame comment on OUR problems.
4... As it would appear you are a true blue Tory, can you stand up and declare that this government has done anything as BAD as the previous Tory administration?
Memories are long, so do not expect such comments to be taken at face value.
News headlines, even in the Tory owned press, made much of the Tory sell off if the family silver, the present government are not unique in disposing of what's under their mattress.
5... Germany has a different take on VAT than the UK, but to be honest your comment in #5 is somewhat grammatically garbled is it not, and really means nothing.
6... Ireland, according to it's own commentators is just about the worst off state in Europe at the moment, unemployment rising, international companies decamping in droves, prices rising faster than in the UK, banks in trouble, and repossessions equal to, if not greater than in the UK, proportionally speaking.
The Euro is no longer being gleaned to prop it up, as it did in the early days of joining the Euro zone.
7...I think you will find that Labour may well become far less devolutionist in the near future, as the reality of that waste of time, space, and public funding in the Bay of Pigs starts to become a matter of concern to everyone, in England for sure, and even here in Wales, where 9 out of 10 are not as gullible as they were ten years ago.
But, I do agree wholeheartedly, the Assembly IS a SHAM, and as such, should be abolished forthwith.
8...Seeing that YOU are so clever, let us into the secret of how YOU would manage Wales. I am sure YOU could do a better job than Westminster, but wait, how could you fund it, with a constantly depressed economic base, substantially ruined by the policies of your fave party some twenty years ago, when selling off the family silver to their pals the ' speculating industry', who pretty well disposed of their holdings as soon as practically able.
Labour SHOULD have re nationalised everything when they came in in 1997, so that today we would have control of our industrial base, they did not, and I criticise them for the failure, but will not allow someone from the extreme right of the 'old blue brigade' to do so, for reasons given above, and below.
9...Thanks to the way the Tories, last time in administration , screwed the financial industry, to allow free rein to the likes of Madoff to do his best to rip the world off, and 'persuaded' the local authorities to sell off social housing for peanuts, thereby creating the housing bubble price rises that are now, as they did in the early 80's, creating intolerable levels of repossessions, then I have little doubt that North as well, as South, East and West Wales, will fall foul of whatever nasty snags and surprises the economy can throw at the region.
Labour is effectively out of the driving seat, as well you know, when it comes down to regional policy, all they can do is provide some sort of blanket adjustments here and there.
Cameron may well provide a pretty new face, but behind his smirking mask lies a return to Thatcher,.. you'd better believe it.
10...Nowhere near the debt level we were under in 1997, when the perceived wealth of the state was all smoke and mirrors, fortunately the electorate saw through that sham, whether they will wish to return to the Tory philosophy is yet to be determined, we shall see.
Jam tomorrow presumably on sliced bread, I would rather live in hopes than in desperation, which will be the fate of the Welsh under another Tory government.
Flour free bread and water, the workhouse mentality, we've been there before.
Do we really need to return to the same old failed policies?
I also agree, tentatively, what difference will this quartet make?
But as a political prognosticator, I would not be so bold, as you seem to be doing,
to make claims that none of them could become a political giant, that was said of Churchill, Lloyd George, Disraeli, and others, all of whom made fools of their detractors over time.
And as Wilson said, 'a week is a long time in politics,' any longer must be a lifetime, which that quartet have before them, politically speaking.
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#6 mapexx
I read your rather long rant before it disappeared. I don't know to what the mods took objection - seemed inoffensive enough.
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Brynt 41,
the 'rant' which contradicted someone elses opposing one, was removed, at my own request, because I had inadvertantly forwarded it unedited.
I then sent a fully edited one, but that seems to have not been picked up by the mods for some unknown reason.
Perhaps message 8 is it and will/ may appear soon.
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7. I would include Rhodri Morgan and Elin Jones. Maybe Jane Davidson, but that is about it......
Glyn Davies would have made the list if he was still in the Senedd, and Dafydd Wigley, but that I am afraid is about it.
And you will see form my selection that I am being non-partisan.
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#11 Penddu
These are states(wo)men? You can't be serious!
Maybe Wigley, on a good day. He should be leader of PC without a doubt. They haven't anyone else who can hold a candle to him. He has gravitas. Plaid made a major blunder in going for their all-female list. The coalition with Labour is the other one.
In any case, my request was UK-wide.
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brynt41, #7
There are not many who show courage, Vincent Cable I would trust, he has a grasp of what's important, also seems to be an honest MP.
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With regard to:
"The bookie's looking at the national picture. The momentum's with the Conservatives and "if this was to boil over onto the Welsh front, the next Welsh election will be a political betting minefield". It also means Carwyn Jones could be unseated from Bridgend where his performance last time round didn't impress the bookie. Majority went down 2.3% to 40.3% in a seat classed as marginal: swing required - 5.2%
And so he looks to Health Minister and Gower AM Edwina Hart even though her majority, incidentally, went down 9.5% to 34.2% in a seat clased as highly marginal: swing required - 2.2%. Karl concludes that she could glean enough support to prevent a Jones the Counsel General coronation only to find that she's let Huw Lewis, the Merthyr AM in through the back door. Got the double-edged sword? On the other hand she could back the Bridgend AM and see him safely in Rhodri's seat."
Bridgend 2005 (notional): Lab maj 17.87%
Gower 2005 (notional): Lab maj 16.95%
Bridgend 2007: Lab maj 10.41%
(Swing: 0.26% from Lab to Con)
Gower 2007: Lab maj 4.33%
(Swing: 9.84% from Lab to Con)
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Am I missing something? Why is Karl the bookie not quoting odds on Andrew Davies? He's not 'done a Leighton' has he?
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