Leading Ladies
It may not be the rumble in the jungle but on tonight's Dragon's Eye the two would-be leaders of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, Jenny Randerson and Kirsty Williams, go head to head. Tomorrow morning the ballot papers are sent out to the 2,600 or so members, so may the best woman use her 3'30" to the best effect.
The USP of this leadership election? That both candidates are women.
The latest odds? Neck and neck.
The latest news from the party? That membership has "surged" by 3%. Now given that means some 40 people Wales-wide have joined, I think I'll go for "slight increase" over "surge".
Camp Kirsty claim to have the support of 15 council groups give or take, leaving Jenny Randerson with just a fistful. But in that fistful, of course, is Cardiff with its numbers and city-wide, well-oiled machinery. In there too is Wrexham. It'll have done Camp Jenny no harm to have Council leader Aled Roberts on their side, even if "Wrexham Councillors endorse Jenny Randerson" is yet to catch on with You Tube users.
He must be the nearest thing we have in Wales to a Vince Cable - not exactly a "twinkle-toed economic prophet" perhaps but he's affable, popular in the party and his council did get their millions out of Landsbanki just in time.
Ideas? Both candidates share lots of the same ones. Want an Ideas Academy, a Leader's Hotline, Youth Academy? Then vote ... well either really. What the 2,600 members must decide is which woman they want out there doing the job.
The choice, as they've presented it themselves, is this:
Do you want the one with experience or the young, passionate one?
The one who supported the rainbow coalition deal or the "rainbow wrecker?"
The one who has been in government and who sells herself as "the package that we need to return to government", or the one who says the party's "aim must be to be in government - working with whoever we can to make common cause with - but it must be on our terms?"
On Monday at the Institute of Welsh Affairs debate in the Assembly Kirsty Williams told a room packed with politicians, academics and commentators that she would not necessarily veto a deal with the Tories in future. She would make up her mind based on the deal on the table, not who's sitting around it. She sighs, rolls her eyes when the subject is put to her but knows on that one, Jenny Randerson has her over a rainbow-coloured barrel.
She'll have her critics who'll never forgive. Find them firmly in Camp Jenny but take a good look and amongst the 165 names in Camp Kirsty are those who have forgiven. Their reasoning? That sticking to her guns took guts and that she had every right to question a deal that had on it the infamous Liberal Democrat "triple lock". Not her fault that the leadership - supported by Jenny Randerson - failed to see defeat coming.
No, they're not best mates and it hasn't been a particularly clean fight.
Camp Kirsty talk of "a fresh start and a leader for the long term". In the language of the young people both are keen to appeal to that translates as "Jenny = same old". They conjure up a picture of a potential and youthful leadership line-up of Carwyn Jones, Jonathan Morgan and Adam Price and ask who you'd want to stand alongside them?
In return come suggestions that the Brecon and Radnor AM has too much on her plate, won't work weekends because of her three young girls and, I'm told by Camp Kirsty, even that loaded query about whether she's 'stable' enough?
A non-Lib Dem and no Kirsty Williams fan suggested after Monday night's debate that her performance had reminded them of a Morecambe and Wise sketch. They were talking about the 'Grieg's Piano Concerto by Grieg sketch' and Eric Morecambe's response to Andre Previn's accusation that he was "playing all the wrong notes". "I'm playing all the right notes" he said "but not necessarily in the right order." She had the right things to say in there somewhere but a coherent message?
Before Camp Jenny rub their hands, let's add that it was Kirsty Williams who the IWA saw fit to invite alongside Rhodri Morgan, Ieuan Wyn Jones and Adam Price and that rarely do people bother briefing against politicians that are not, at the very least, on their radar.
Dragon's Eye is on BBC 2 Wales at 9 o'clock and on BBC 1 Wales at 10.35pm.
The new Lib Dem leader will be on their feet in the chamber on December 9th.
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~49~RS~)
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Kirsty Williams sounds hideously bumptious and metropolitan to me, and if she has dared to use age as a weapon on some younger than John Sergeant, then she deserves to be toasted by the voters.
However, painful though it is to admit, I would have to prefer her over Jenny Randerson, for this comment alone from JR...
"Bill Bryson's books are all well written with great insight and humour."
Anyone so totally lacking in literary taste to hoover up that trash [and Midsomer Murders!] is not helping her cause at all...
In a sense they do represent the Lib Dems well, because they garner votes from people who look at the two available main options and think 'None of the above..'
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Betsan, sorry, but there's more...
I do love your blog and it is very informative and with a lovely tone of voice. But there are a couple of things which do drive me mental..
Basically they can be summarised as 'assuming a lot of previous knowledge'..
Not all of us can follow the 'soap opera' of Welsh politics as religiously as we'd like, so..
1/ Please can you spell out acronyms first time you use them ?
2/ I know it should be obvious from the context which of the two is the 'Brecon and Radnor AM', but...
3/ I am now going to have to 'google' to find which is the 'rainbow' person and which is not...
Sorry, I guess this blog is for people who are like 'Archers Addicts' and 'Eastenders fans', so having the 'bloke' coming in and asking ''Oos this.. "" and ''Whassat '' and ''Why she back innit?'' is annoying, but you know how it is - leave the story for a week or two and you are lost...
Maybe you need a weekly 'omnibus' catch up, or a synopsis like they used to do on 'Soap',
Confused, you won't be...
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Hi Betsan,
'I was there' at the IWA and fascinating it was to watch the negotiation of the next coalition in 2011. Odd it was that Adam Price was worried about offerring voters 'a choice' as his justification for trying to bring the Tories into power last time and threatening to do it again next time. Funny kind of socialist Adam........
As for Kirsty, apart from being a Llanelli girl with a genetic hatred for Tories, she has the minor problem of how to win her own seat if she cuddles up to Wales's historic bogeymen. She can't win without Ystradgynlais and do you think they will vote for a candidate likely to put the Tories back in charge? Its all positioning. First to win the leadership, then to get a good deal with Carwyn in 2011.
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I don't think either of them have a particularly "Welsh" appeal which as your colleague Vaughan has said on his blog is a weakness for their party. Its difficult to know what they stand for. They both seem rather careerist and metropolitan and I can't see how they can improve the fortunes of their party in Wales. The Tories have a more authentic Welsh image. I think JR is a rather more cedible and less bumptious figure. However it will be good to have a woman as a political leader in Wales. Aled Roberts is a rather more interesting politician and much more in tune with the Welsh Radical tradition which as we know has been and remains a surpringly durable cross party phenomenon. It's a shame he can't find a seat-isn't it time to ditch Elinor Burnham as the Lib Dem's No 1 list candidate in N Wales.
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HerbertDavies - I can't quite understand this huge problem about the Lib Dems 'getting into bed' with the Tories - Nick Clegg is a Tory in all but name, and his economic policies were until recently somewhat to the right of ''Call Me Dave' Cameron..
So any idea that one would vote for a LibDem least likely to form an alliance with the Tories, when there is every chance that Nick Clegg would be a minister in a Conservative govt if there was a 'hung parliament' at the next General Election, seems based on a rather shaky presumption that the LibDems should be socialist in their outlook.
I cannot see much evidence of it myself - and if Barack Obama pulls the troops out of Iraq, there won't be much difference on their foreign policy either ?
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expolgareththomas, a point ....
your ..... "Welsh Radical tradition",
I would have thought "Welsh Nonconformist tradition".
Dragon's Eye was a disappointment, I had hoped for spitting feathers but felt each were stroking the other with feather dusters, Kirsty Williams and Jenny Randerson that is.
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Betsan - I hate to be a pedant (all right, no I don't), but could you please differentiate between 'better' and 'best'? If there are two candidates, then one is 'the better' not 'the best' - hence it should be 'may the *better* woman win' not (as so often heard) 'may the best woman win'
"Good, better, best,
never let it rest,
till your good is better,
and your better best."
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Hmm.. Kirsty looks impressive, but this may be down to her marketing of the 'Kirsty Williams Brand'..
As we all know, having the best advertising doesn't necessarily mean having the best product.
So is she a 'Bumptious BMW', a 'Super Skoda', an 'Awesome Audi', or a 'Volkswagen Vixen' ?
Time will tell.
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'Latest odds neck-and-neck'..
Karl, the 'bwci' [bookie..] on Vaughan's blog, seems to think Kirsty is a short-head favourite..
All to play for...
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Betsan:
I loved the title of the blog; and i hope that the ladies enjoy there meeting...
~Dennis Junior~
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