The Psychiatrist's Chair
A few weeks ago a man who knows a thing or two about campaigning and politics was at home, putting his feet up when he looked out of the window and noticed a bus pulling up. Out poured what he took to be the local Darby and Joan Club coming home from an outing. "Then I looked again" he said, "and recognised my local Labour party group".
I've never been to a Darby and Joan club and have no idea whether they still exist in Wales but I got his drift: the youngest member was in his 60s.
And if they had been on a local-election-campaigning kind of outing then the results in that neck of the woods suggests they'd had as much luck as I did in the office Euro 2008 sweepstakes. (Go Sweden).
"Why is it" he said "that Labour these days just seem to be sitting back, as if they're waiting to hand the First Minister's job to Ieuan Wyn Jones?"
And there it was again - mentionitis. I've lost count of the number of Labour supporters and Labour AMs over the past few weeks whose conversation turns first to Plaid. In the canteen, in the pub it doesn't take long before they're talking about their coalition partners - Plaid, bl**dy Plaid, the nationalists, take your pick.
First off it's how Plaid did in the local elections. Then how come their Ministers seem to have such high profiles, how they seem pretty cohesive as a group (even if back-benchers still haven't worked out what it means to be a backbencher), how Helen Mary doesn't seem to be rocking the boat much any more, how Ieuan Wyn just, well, gets nothing wrong.
I carry on sipping my coffee/pint and mull over one obvious question: if the Tories pose the biggest threat to Labour in Wales come the General Election - and in most constituencies they plainly do - why the apparent obsession with Plaid?
I don't know if you ever listened to Radio 4's In the Psychiatist's Chair but it was one of my favourite programmes. So in its honour let me just suggest a few theories:
Labour AMs reckon they're being taken for a ride by Plaid and can't get over it for long enough to take on the party that most of them should, right now, be really worried about.
Maybe it's simply that the Tories will pose the greatest threat in a General Election, sure but here in the Assembly, despite having a decent, thoughtful crop of AMs they rarely manage to land punches on the government. So Labour AMs, when in Cardiff Bay anyway, concentrate on their coalition rivals - sorry partners, Plaid.
Then again maybe Labour AMs, deep down (very deep in some cases) have started to realise they agree with Plaid on rather a lot of issues - a whole raft of domestic policies, Iraq, Trident but given it's never really been the done thing to say so out loud, they now turn their ire on Plaid in an attempt to cover up an inner confusion.
Any theories?
And by the way yes, it is Huw Lewis who's been learning Welsh in Nant Gwrtheyrn. Just hope the Merthyr man hasn't picked up the local accent ...
I'm Betsan Powys, BBC Wales' political editor. I'll be blogging the inside track on 
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~55~RS~)
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The age (and sometimes absence of) Labour candidates In Caerffili was pretty astonishing.
Only two candiates for three seats in Newbridge - One candiate for two seats in Llanbradach - One for three seats in Morgan Jones.
This might sound heartless and not a party political issue but I count four councillors who have died between nomination and election. Can't seem to recall the extent of this phenomenon in past elections.
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I'm suprised I thought that most Labour AMs were spending their time complaining about each other and preparing for their leadership election.
Whether it is Plaid or their own ranks they are targeting they are definitely giving the Tories a free run.
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Welsh Labour are sleepwalking towards disaster led by the Frank Carson of Welsh politics. As the Tories roll inexorably into power at the Westminster level it is clear that Plaid will use Morgan’s long overdue and painfully protracted departure to jump ship. In the meantime the constitutional façade of the convention allows them the opportunity to stay in the shaky One Wales agreement all the time knowing that a 2011 referendum is dead and buried. It says something when the Plaid cabinet members outshine their coalition partners and highlight what complete nonentities the potential Labour leadership candidates are. Only Edwina Hart impresses, while Carwyn Jones pretends to be Rumpole of the Bailey and Andrew Davies is more effective than night nurse in sending you to sleep. The historic decline of labour as a party particularly here in Llanelli is a sad spectacle, perhaps only a spell in opposition can reverse this crisis?
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I think that Betsan has hit the nail on it's head. Labour policies are similar to Plaid's policies. And Plaid have strong support base from which to expand. Labour however depend on their economic policies to maintain their support and their recent incompetence and failure to manage the economy have damaged their core support base.
These voters will probably turn to either the Conservatives or Plaid. Labour aren't that worried about the Tories in the long run because they hope that due to the gulf between their policies traditional Labour supporters who voted Tory will come back.
However if those suppoerters turn to Plaid then there's a problem. Because Plaid have appeared efficient and many of their policies are similar to Labour's policies. They are worried about a long term swing from Labour to Plaid.
Also they've probably recognised how excellent Plaid are after working with them in government!
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I just realised something (sorry about all this double posting Betsan). It's obvious that Labour sees Plaid as the long term threat and the perfect example is their prospective future leader learning Welsh.
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Betsan,
Much of what you say is correct particulary the similarities between the left of Welsh Labour and the left of Plaid. The Plaid left have dominated policy development despite being a minority in the party, and hence in government Plaid and Welsh Labour knock along quite well.
The problem is that this is the same Plaid (who apart from the four brave socialist females) saw no diffculty at all in bringing the Tories back into government in Wales and sitting in the same cabinet with them. Both Labour and Plaid parties are a left/right coalition but the stretch to the right is far greater in Plaid and thats' why any Labour AM is going to be nervous of them gaining credibility and exaggerated left of centre credentials in government.
Of course the Tories are the real threat but only Plaid, if you look at the arithmatic, could bring them back into government. It nearly happened before, why should it not happen again?
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When is Betsan Powys going to criticize Plaid Cymru?
Her scribblings have become merely a BBC political broadcast on the nationalists behalf.
She attacks the Tories, moans about Labour, makes sly innuendoes about the Lib Dems, but for Plaid Cymru nothing but praise.
Her outpourings have become a joke, find someone with some impartiality....please !
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Interesting stuff Betsan...NOT being a Tory, I thought the "rise" of the Welsh Tories was much overlooked...the Constitution Unit/Bangor Uni drew attention to it in their report after the last Assembly elections...
Although it's a further question as to how really distinctive they are/wish to be in Wales...self interest and the (luvely) consensus of the political classes. If they had questioned the actuality/hype of devolution since 1997 they could have at least of raised the level of current debate?
Rather than the "mush" that now exists.
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My sentiments entirely Noah Sembly, but then there is no impartiality in Wales anymore. The silent majority here find it virtually impossible to get our voices heard and feel alienated from this new oligarchic Wales in which no political Party has sufficient courage or, perhaps, principled consciousness to stand up and challenge this irrational and immoral prioritising of the language over the health and welfare of the people of Wales.
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Why is Noah Sembly's comment being moderated - is this yet another example of the curbing of dissenting opinion here in Wales?
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Betsan
Taking-up your psychiatric theme- I am led to believe that the first stage of the full cycle of attitudinal/ behavioural change is so-called 'denial'.
Labour have to 'dig deep'- intellectually, environmentally, and practically and construct a series of refreshed policies that provide both a foundation for the future, and that captures the immagination of the rising generation- (Rhoddri who?).
The Conservatives are 'first out of the stall' but it is always easier in opposition. Who is the Heir to Blair- in England it evidently is not Brown- but more importantly for me- who is the Heir to Blair in Wales.
Rhoddri needs to read a bit more of the literature around succession planning- it is timely for a leader to emerge with that set of policies that resonate, and not alienate.
Dr. Psych-a-logical...
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Well, there we have it. The BBC, (impartial to a man), have seen fit to arbitrarily wipe any suggestion of political favouritism with indecent haste.
Anyone who dares to suggest that this blog strongly favours Plaid Cymru over any other party is quickly 'moderated' off the screen.
It really does speak volumes about the amount of power the nationalist driven BBC wields in Wales. Power financed by a compulsory television tax which cannot be justified under any circumstances.
This blog, set up to reflect ALL opinions, does nothing of the sort. Looking back over past topics on here, one is hard pressed to find any which criticize or even hint at criticizing Plaid Cymru.
However, Labour, the Tories, and Lib Dems, now thats a different story altogether. They face a barrage of sneering and underhand criticism while your beloved Plaid Cymru receive nothing but praise.
It really is a shambles.
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'Scuse me for daring to speak up on this issue, being a plaidman and all that, but I think the point Betsan was making was that Labour are obsessing about Plaid and taking their eye off the resurgence of the Tories.
How exactly that is to be defined as "pro-Plaid" is beyond me, as Betsan is effectively saying that it is the Tories offer the greater threat to Labour at the moment, not Plaid.
Does that make her a Tory sympathiser?
I can only assume that Betsan is reporting what she hears around the corridors of power. Its interesting to read it, and you can draw any conclusions you want from it, but accusations of political bias seem a bit far fetched, to say the least.
Am I allowed to say that from the green corner?
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Anybody calling themselves "Plaidman" on here and purports to be defending the neutrality of this blog, is on a loser right from the start.
Do you really think that anyone other than Plaid Cymru voters will believe a word you say?
As you are no doubt aware, I referred to all the BP comments, not just this one. The bias toward Plaid Cymru is there even in this latest effort. Just read it again, other parties are shown in a bad light while beloved Plaid are portrayed in at worse a neutral position.
Indeed this latest effort is about as neutral as Ms. Powys gets. Many of her previous comments have been alarmingly biased toward Plaid Cymru.
Come on Betsan, admit it, your loyalties are definitely with Plaid Cymru aren't they?
It shows you know !
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Me think that Noah_sembly doth protest too much! Hehe. Sounds more like targeting the messenger then taking on the issue at hand.
I do not see any bias in Bestan Powys blogs at all. In fact, I came to the *opposite conclusion in the corse of watching the blog over the corse of the past two years! I felt Plaid was overly critized in many articals... simply read past articals! I remember some scathing posts.
I am glad to see that others have a different point of view then myself, because it means that criticism is more even-handed.
Keep up the good work!
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
VIVA BETSAN'S BLOG!
Which takes NO prisoners (of any party or none)
WALES is really run by the Druids - always has been. Everyone knows that. You can see 'em everynight gathering in Pontcanna and "plotting". Most of them are closet Tories. And/Or friends of Lord DET.
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Whereas I expect journalists to be balanced, unbiased and honest (and mischevious where appropriate) which usually they are - I am not one of their number and therefore can call myself plaidman if I like. At least I'm being straight about where I'm coming from.
I'm sorry that Noah disapproves of other people expressing themselves openly, but I for one cherish the democratic rights our forebears won for us and I will not censor myself to please someone who appears merely to be "obsessing" about Plaid.
Maybe it is Noah who needs to re-read the article, which I maintain says more about and anticipated Tory threat to Labour than anything else.
For what its worth, I think Betsan has made a very important point that supporters of all parties and none should perhaps reflect on. It might start up some genuine, clean, open political debate.
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Noah Sembly wrote:
"I seem to remember that MPs are not allowed to write blogs, for obvious reasons. It would appear that both the BBC and Plaid Cymru have circumvented this irritating restriction"
Noah - that is a serious charge, that the BBC blogs are being written by a political party. Do you have any evidence? I'm sure that both Ofcom and the Parliamentary Commissioner would be very interested in such evidence, which would be explosive.
If you don't have any evidence, then I suggest you take your allegations and put them somewhere where the laws of libel don't apply.
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Townie Taff,
If you intend entering into a career in law, it may help if you at least got your facts right.
Firstly, as all who have followed this little skirmish will agree, my sole complaint has been that Ms. Powys has appeared to favour Plaid Cymru in her comments. Whether intentional or not, I cannot say, I do feel however that she seems to come down harder ( and more often) on the other parties. Though I'm not saying that often they don't thoroughly deserve some stick.
Let us say for instance, that I was a member of a political party, and wrote a political column much like this one, and peppered it with favourable comments pertaining to that political party.
Would you not agree that the readers of that column should be informed that the author is a member of, and favours a particular party be it Lab, Con, Lib Dem, Plaid, or even the BNP, (on second thoughts, especially the BNP).
As for your final sentence Townie, as an old Ely boy, I understood your 'message' quite clearly, though possibly "somewhere the sun don't shine" might have proved a trifle more expressive.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
I read this blog quite often and I don't find any undue bias in the writer. Perhaps a smidgen more left than right wing, but only perhaps. I have a feeling that she is a well-concealed Lib-Dem sympathizer - well, maybe. Perhaps she'll tell us one day and give a reward for the nearest guess! For real astounding bias go to current American press/TV/online coverage of the US presidential elections. There is little reporting and comment, just opinion,opinion,opinion.
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Betsan:
nice title....
what is the point you are making.
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