Damage on the doorsteps

Leaf through today's Western Mail jobs pages and tell me what's the link between the Local Government Data Unit, Cardiff University, University of Glamorgan, Race Equality First, Lloyds Bank, the International Baccalaureate, Caerphilly Borough Council ... I could go on.

The First Minister knows what I'm talking about. He had a good look at the jobs pages this morning. No, he's not tempted to head off before 2009 (not as long as a 2010 General Election is still on the cards anyway) but he was on the look-out for jobs that pay under £18,500. He found plenty.

The Prime Minister may have made moves towards compensating those affected by the scrapping of the 10p tax rate but funnily enough I get the feeling the First Minister isn't convinced those who earn under £18,500 are rushing to forgive him.

So now you've got the link. They're all institutions advertising jobs that pay under £18,500 - in some instances, well under £18,500 for doing the kind of day's work you and I and our famililes would notice if it wasn't being done properly.

I don't have a copy of the Evening Standard in front of me but I'm guessing jobs advertised there generally tend to pay rather more which is why, of course, Wales will be hit disproportinately hard by scrapping the 10p tax band.

The Liberal Democrats are pointing to the195,000 in Wales who are starting rate tax payers and wondering whether the party can hold on to Cardiff, Bridgend, Swansea and Wrexham after all. Shadow Chancellor George Osborne was in town on Tuesday with a ton of expensive leaflets and a message that a quarter of a million people in Wales will be worse off. There are Labour canvassers reporting that the row and even the inelegant U-turn is doing them real damage on the doorsteps.

Yesterday I stood outside M+S in Newport for an hour and talked to as many people as I could who had an opinion on the local elections. Scientific it ain't but mostly, it went a bit like this:

Number one issue? No question - scrapping the 10p tax rate.
"Not that there's anything a Labour council can do about that, surely?"
"No but if you don't tell them locally how fed up you are, nobody listens."

Next?

"Where does all my money go these days? Petrol, electricity, gas ..."
"Not that there's anything a Labour council can do about that, surely?"
"No but they've got to get the message somehow, haven't they? "

"How about Newport - is the regeneration work making a big impact?"
"It'll be nice when it's finished".

So it went on. Granted, there were more older people prepared to stop and talk but then they're the ones most likely to vote come May 1st.

A few weeks ago Labour were talking in terms of keeping control of Newport come what may and taking back control of Bridgend and of Swansea: not loudly maybe and not confidently but there was a deal of optimism. Now the First Minister admits a good morning on May 2nd would be finding they've managed to hang on to what they've got.

Will they? A smidgin of good news for Labour from outside M+S in Newport. If not Labour, then who? My final question to those passers-by keen to register a protest.

Most hadn't thought about it or hadn't made up their minds. Why does that matter? Because it means there was no sign at all of tactical voting, the kind of thoughtful, targetted voting that leads to knock-out blows, rather than slaps on the wrist.

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