It was always likely to happen but all the same let's note the day the sharp elbows truly came out in the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan.

Yesterday the Carwyn Jones campaign put out a press release to be made public this morning. "TIME TO LEAD - POWER MEANS RESPONSIBILITY" said the headline. So far, so the usual attempt at the weekend to look full of ideas and get reported. But hang on and read on.

"Carwyn is the only candidate in the election to link constitutional reform directly to improvements in public service delivery, saying the people of Wales may want more devolution but they also want politicians to do better when it comes to improving their services".

Who's the Minister in charge of public service delivery? Who rarely has a conversation that doesn't, at some point, contain the words "public service delivery?" Ah yes, of course, the man who is also the real power behind Edwina Hart's campaign.

Keep reading.

"Our current structures of governance in the public service - in local authorities and health services for example - must be platforms for delivery, not stand-alone empires. Otherwise the people will demand more radical change."

The structures of governance in the health service? Another direct hit. Followed by this line:

"Carwyn is set to challenge current Welsh Assembly Government thinking on public service delivery".

In other words Carwyn Jones is set to challenge what Andrew Davies and the Welsh Assembly Government - in other words the Cabinet in which he has a role - has been doing for the past few years.

There was, we gather, fury from the Finance Minister. Was there not, he wondered out loud, "such a thing as collective cabinet responsibility?" Backbench AM and leadership contender Huw Lewis can vote against the government on its plans for a badger cull but don't forget that the hand being played by Carwyn Jones is quite different.

A matter of hours later, a correction was issued. He was no longer "set to challenge current Welsh Assembly Government thinking on public service delivery" after all. Instead "Carwyn is seeking to set a new direction for future Government thinking on public service delivery." There is, of course, no difference in his plans. The sole difference is the rather smarter form of words.

But let's get back to that thought about power and responsibility and a passage in the press release that's creating waves in Plaid circles. It deserves scrutiny - I'll quote it in full.

"Labour delivered devolution. I was proud to campaign for a yes vote in 1997 as secretary of 'Bridgend Says Yes'. In the 2006 Government of Wales Act, Labour delivered the framework for the Assembly to have law-making powers if backed by the people in a referendum.

"I have always been committed to further law-making powers for Wales.

"I am totally committed to what was agreed in 'One Wales' but that should in no way preclude my responsibility, if elected Leader, to consult within the wider Party on the findings and recommendations of the All Wales Convention.

"But consideration of the Convention's report must not be a matter solely for AMs to decide - it must involve the entire Labour movement in Wales, AMs, MPs, grassroots members and trade unions.

"I will campaign for a Yes vote when the referendum is called, but we need a united Labour Party for a victory."

So have we been asking the wrong question? I've not been alone in wondering which First Minister would take a decision on whether to go for a referendum or not - the outgoing one or the brand new one? Carwyn Jones seems to be saying here that if he's elected, it will be neither. The decision will be in the hands of the Labour movement in Wales.

How would it be involved? By which mechansim? A re-run of the Special Conference that gave its blessing to the coalition and its current policy on a referendum? He doesn't say but here it is, a cast iron guarantee - to use the language of the moment - that the decision won't simply be made by the new First Minister and the Labour group in the National Assembly.

Edwina Hart says Carwyn Jones has been peeking at her hymn sheet:

"I have made it quite clear at hustings meetings during the campaign that I would want to consult the party about the referendum process once we knew the outcome of the All Wales Convention. I have also made it clear that we need much wider consultaion with the party on issues generally. Clearly Carwyn is in agreement with me."

And Huw Lewis? His priority, he makes clear, is taking on the Tories at the General Election, no matter what the Convention says about a referendum.

But look at this:

"With regards to involving the entire Labour family in any referendum campaign, of course. Unity of purpose is paramount to the Labour movement - but it is my recollection that a decision has been made on this, involving all sections of the party and affiliates, at the time of the special conference."

There are senior Plaid voices now saying exactly the same thing and in no uncertain terms - that the deal on where the parties stood on a referendum was signed, sealed and delivered back in 2007.

Walking away from that agreement could be, in the words of one Plaid voice, "a deal-breaker".

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On St Andrew's Day I wonder how tempted Alex Salmond will be to raise some questions -perhaps answer a few - about his future plans for an independent Scotland?

How soon after that would the UK Government be obliged to offer their own answers to come questions raised by the Calman Commission earlier this year. Will they take the same opportunity to respond to the Holtham Commission?

It's questions, questions, question these days. Here are a few more for you:

Does the majority of the population of Wales understand the devolution settlement?

No.

To what extent do they need to understand it? To what extent does it matter if their understanding is scant?

Not just debatable but about to be hotly debated when the All Wales Convention report their own findings on November 18th, the day - incidentally - of the Queen's Speech.

How much do people who live in the UK but not in Wales understand about day to day life here? Do they know what would be different for their families if their company relocated here for instance? Do they know how the health service differs, how the education offered to their children would be different?

What do they think it feels like to live in a bilingual country?

Listening to yesterday's edition of Radio 4's Front Row with Mark Lawson makes you wonder.

This week we learned what the brand new National Theatre Wales will look like. Its Artistic Director, John E McGrath was invited onto the programme to talk about it. Good news you say, promoting understanding of what goes on here beyond Wales etc The conversation moved on to the National Theatre's peripatetic nature and a comparison made with the National Theatre in Scotland. This is how it went:

LAWSON: But far more than it arises perhaps in Scotland, you have the language question, which is whether the plays should be performed in English or in Welsh how have you resolved that one?

MCGRATH: Well we've come up with a canny solution for that in Wales, which is to create two theatre companies, National Theatre Wales and Theatr Genedlaethol Cymru. Theatr Genedlaethol has been going for a few years now, so that's really opened a space up for an English language theatre.

LAWSON: So all your plays will be performed in English?

MCGRATH: They'll be performed in English but more important than that they'll be performed in theatre.

LAWSON: I understand but we know that this is a big political issue in Wales. You are confident that you won't have people standing outside the theatre with placards which many of your actors and writers won't be able to read, protesting about the fact that it's all in English?

MCGRATH: There's been absolutely nothing but enthusiasm for the project in Wales and the Welsh speaking community's been a huge part of the support. It's an issue I think for people in England, it's not an issue for people in Wales. Here we're talking about a very confident country that has increasingly got its own government and wants to speak to the world.

There are plenty of questions in the wind these days about the quality of theatre provision in Wales, be it in English or in Welsh. The Culture Minister has been posing a few questions of his own this week and given he's the man holding the purse strings, ears in theatre land will prick up and listen.

But promoting understanding of where we're at in Wales? Are there really intelligent, erudite cultural commentators in England who believe there would be noisy protests outside national theatre productions in Wales, simply because they're put on in English?

Apparently so. There wouldn't of course but to what extent does it matter that some people think there would? Quite a lot, I'd say.

If you're interested, listen back to the interview here.

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YOU know what 'aura' is, don't you?

Ah yes, in Wales we're very good at piling on the pressure, stoking the fire, talking up your side's chances, questioning the other side's aura of infallibility ahead of the big match. Appearing confident, as if that trophy's yours is half the psychological battle after all. Confident, unafraid, on course - good. Cocky, complacent, dismissive, in the bag - bad.

Ok, so you know where I'm going with this ... December 1st, Labour leadership, the Rhodri Morgan Trophy that is the First Minister's job.

The battle's moved from the open territory of supporting nominations - and I use the word 'open' cautiously and with much healthy scepticism - to the closed world of phone polling. Would you expect any one of the three camps to let it be known their phone polls are indicating their candidate is stuffed? No, thought not but just to pause a moment here.

The calls are going in at quite a rate - an impressive rate that would rival any recent election campaign run by Welsh Labour. If that's true - and I've no reason to doubt it but no ability to check it - then that raises some pretty fundamental questions about campaigning capabilities, who has them, who hasn't. You might wonder how on earth that kind of call volume is being achieved, to use the jargon ... but let's not get side tracked.

All three camps say things are looking good. Let's not be cynical either and dismiss that with a 'they would, wouldn't they?'

Huw Lewis knows he needs massive support from the membership. So far in this race, his team have not oversold their candidate's position. They can add up AM, MP and official union support as well as the next man and they can see their man is running in third. But these days they look very happy with what they're hearing. Let me throw caution to the wind and add another 'very' to that happy.

They need the membership to throw their weight behind Huw Lewis big time or he's first out and our sole concern is which of the other two get his supporters' second preference. That must surely be the concern of the other two candidates.

As I say, the Huw Lewis camp are looking more than happy with what they're being told. Only they know who's doing the telling and how reliable their support is.

The bookies aren't paying out but they're clear who wins: Carwyn Jones. The mantra in his camp? Confident, never, ever complacent. Nothing's in the bag but if you push them on phone polling ... Do the maths. Add up the support that's already been pledged by his fellow AMs, MPs, the sole MEP and he's already smiling - happy in the knowledge he's ahead in that electoral college. But the other two bits of the jigsaw? They seem confident (never complacent) that Carwyn (note the use of the first name at every opportunity) won't do at all badly there.

Add to that the support being pledged by members on the other end of a phone-line and you may think he's laughing.

And yet, and yet, and yet. The Hart camp give a pretty good impression of quiet confidence themselves. It's a campaign team jam-packed with people who, how do I put it, understand the Labour party through and through. When they talk about doing the maths, you may be baffled as to how they work it out but you're left in absolutely no doubt that they themselves are anything but baffled and anything but discouraged. As one trusted and objective voice put it - Carwyn's the favourite but Hart's the value bet.

There are plenty of rumours from left field. This morning's? Irene James, having nominated Huw Lewis, will vote for Edwina Hart. It's a story that did the rounds some weeks ago. Here, I was told, was the confirmation. "Cast iron".

Not so, apparently. In the past few days the AM for Islwyn has sent out a letter affirming her support for Huw Lewis. This is a "bizarre and baseless rumour" I'm told.

The upshot with a month to go?

Watch closely on Saturday. The crowd will love the pre-match posturing. The commentators and headline writers will analyse its impact on the match. Come Sunday we'll care about just one thing: who won.

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