The Grand National: How do you pick a winner?
Tell us how you pick a winner.
All this week Clare Balding is preparing us for the world's greatest steeplechase, The Grand National.
Running since 1839, Clare has been exploring the history of the 'National' - it has produced sensational stories and characters such as three times winner Red Rum. The mighty Aintree fences provide a huge amount of drama for spectators. While for the runners and riders just finishing the course is a major achievement.
For enthusiasts, this Saturday's event is the highlight of the racing calendar. Many people spend a huge amount of time studying form. But for others the umpredicatability of The Grand National means it's a one off opportunity to have a little flutter.
So we're asking you, how do you pick your Grand National winner?
Is it as random as the choosing your favourite jersey colour or the horse's name?
Or are you a racing enthusiast who studies the horse's weight, stamina, age and experience before placing your bet?
Let us know here who you're backing in the Grand National and if you have any trusted methods of picking winners.
More information:
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Comments
I normally study the form but that doesn't seem to help! Had a few winners at reasonable odds but more losers at short odds!!
I would really like to know if it is possible to trace riders in the Grand National from yesteryear. My mother's father supposedly rode several times in races before WWI but so far I have been unable to confirm this. I would love to find out for my mother who loves the race and gave me a love of it from an early age. If anyone can point me in the right direction, I would be very grateful.
Cheers
Fiona
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I pick out the horse that looks good to me, long legs deep chest ect. it doesn't usually work as I don't know which horse likes which track, luckily for me my hubby does, we won money last year on comply or die, he has picked our horse out for this year, I would tell you its name, but I'd have to kill you afterwards, we don't want to shorten the odds now do we. Post 1, I'm going to try and look on the Internet for you, wish me luck.
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I've had a good look, sorry I couldn't help, you may have to get in touch with the jockey club, I don't know how to do that.
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Just hard work and study the form. My family were bookmakers and Ive been an owner. Won a huge amount on last year's Grand National with Comply Or Die. This Is not gloating just to prove It can be done. This year I have two In mind, Butler's Cabin or State Of Play. Although this could easily change. But whatever you do once you have settled on a selection stick by It. You should check the going on the day before anything else (If It Is soft you must look for a horse that likes the wet and rain). Your horse needs stamina, speed, fantastic jumping ability and a great tactition on board. Watch Timmy Murphy's ride last year on Comply Or Die, kept the lad to the outside nearly the whole way round. I was delighted to see this. Age can also be a factor, nine years old Is a good age. Also try to find out If your horse Is ""well-In"" at the weights. *Finally see where your horse gets drawn at the start, vital*.
**PS. That last bit Is a joke, the Grand National Is a jump race, not on the flat lol.
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Around comes Grand National again, along with another gravy train week for Clare Balding and The One Team.
What is the long history and tradition of the 'National' and, oh yes, how do we all pick a winner? Oh, isn't all great family fun, even if one can never have a hope of being there. For a few minutes the entire family can be 'experts' and pour over the racing columns to choose their favourite.
Well the long tradition and history is that of carnage.
How sad it is that yet again there is absolutely no reference, or consideration given, to the hundreds of hapless creatures which over the years have made and shall continue to make, the ultimate sacrifice and not just at the 'National'. It is just the same for the 'Gold Cup' and many other similar events.
These events are not just for one day. They usually run for the entire week and the carnage every year is unimaginable. Unimaginable for the average punter that is. And that does not just apply to those poor horses which are so badly injured on the tracks they are shot immediately. After our jubilation and effects of the booze has all settled down (and many of us can enjoy a glass of Champer, or two!) dozens of horses will be returned to their stables and veterinary surgeons will be called to attend to what is called euphemistically 'economic slaughter', a wonderful expedient available between owners, trainers and insurance companies who have neither the intent or interest is continuing to care for an injured animal which may have a good chance of being returned to an active life. Perhaps it is fortunate we do not treat in a similar manner other sports participants who may sustain 'uneconomical' injuries.
Indeed, it is a dangerous sport and the jockeys are also exposed to serious injuries. But they have a choice. As for the many 'enthusiast' owners, more often than not, they are clueless. Most have never even sat on a rocking horse, let alone a highly strung, super fit, extremely sensitive race horse.
The reality is that steeple chasing especially is a barbaric abuse of a living creature which, like ourselves, is highly sensitive, has a central nervous system and is capable of experiencing extreme pain.
It may be a 'good laugh' for us but is is an outdated practice in what is purported to be an enlightened society.
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Post 4, one of the horses you mentioned is the one my hubby and I have already backed, I know we are running a risk of weather conditions, or being withdrawn, but we are after a good price, its 20/1 at the moment.
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Post 4, what the heck, its State of Play, he'll kill me if he finds out,
Post 5, I can not deny what you have said, but my husband loves his racing so much, they modified the jumps years ago, there is not the carnage there used to be , still, you are right in what you say.
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Most racing historians agree that the first Grand National was held in 1836 not 1839. The BBC and Aintree still refuse to accept this despite evidence showing that the first three races were run at Aintree not Maghull as once thought.
Also the curator of the Aintree museum said that Brian Fletcher was only one of two men to win the Grand National three times. Unless she said 'this century' but was cut off in mid sentence she is wrong.
He is actually one of six men to win the race three times, the others being:
Tom Olliver - 1842, 1843, 1853
Tommy Pickernell - 1860, 1871, 1875
Tommy Beasley - 1880, 1881, 1889
Arthur Nightingall - 1890, 1894, 1901
Jack Anthony - 1911, 1915, 1920
The most successful jockey was George Stevens who won the race five times -
1856, 1863, 1864, 1869, 1870.
Fiona (watsonfee) - what was your grandfather's name?
John, Huddersfield
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Nagspassion post 5.
I could If I really wanted annialte your post Immediately. I have the great good fourtune of knowing people who are Involved In the RSPCA and lets just say they have enjoyed reading this. Please If you are going to make these comments can we have statistics, examples, owners that haven't a clue about Horse Racing and their horses could you please name them. Also how did you come across these ""assumptions"" and how do you explain them?. Of course there have been problems In the past, we have seen modification. So can we have a detailed account of relevent Incidents around Horse Racing please, or Is this just a stereotypical arguement? I keep a very close record of these things myself, as does the RSPCA an Racing Welfare. Bus as you have said your piece, can we have a some answers pleae. The One shows horse died after the race last year (Makelvey) which was more of a shock (and Immense sadness) these days. Thousands might be against Horse Racing, yet millions bet on It. The argument Is a fair one, but It Is now ""too much"" In the past. I dont mind any relevant arguement, but try to have answerrs without churning the net for them.
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Nagpassion Post 5. You also say that vets put many horses down when they get back to their stables, this Is very serious and this Is a very serious question, where did you get this Information from? This (If true) will need to be looked Into. I take this very seriously.
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Pist 6. State Of Play has an excellent chance and 20/1 Is a great price. I have backed It but this Is a very open race this year. I could make a case for at least 15 of the runners.
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Just a thought. Say Horse Racing was stopped. What would happen to all the horses?. This has been discussed, and animal lovers would hate the answer.
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Post 8 - John
Hi,
My Grandfathers name was Betram James Blenkinsop.
My mother is decidedly hazy over the dates and to be honest I did wonder if he had actually ridden in the Foxhunters rather than The National, but I was going to start looking at the years just before WWI. All I can find on the internet are win and place details. Do you know if a particular paper carried the full runner/rider list?
Many thanks for your response.
.
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Nagpassion Post 5: Firstly, you have not answered the question here which is:Grand National, how do you pick a winner? And your name suggests you have a passion for nagging - which you clearly demonstrate.
Methinks you are misinformed and perhaps ignorant of all facts and therefore unaware of the horseracing world.
Racehorses do live a 5* life. Horses love running AND jumping. Sure, they love grazing too but their basic instinct is to run. If they were not meant to run and jump they would not be as athletically built as they are. Jockey's are horsemen and look after their mount to their best ability. Furthermore, there is an old 'phrase' : you can take a horse to water......... If a horse doesn't want to jump, it won't. Simple as. If a horse does not want to run - (or go in the starting stalls in a flat race for instance) it won't. Horses that unseat their jockeys are quite often seen, galloping along with the others, riderless and jumping the obstacles by themselves. Isn't that strange.
Owners of all horses love them. Including racehorses. They are well cared for at all times, and after racelife care is also a very big part of all of this. There are three big Racehorse Welfare Centres in this Country (not to mention all the others too) namely Moorcroft, The Thoroughbred Rehabilitation Centre, and Greatwood - who take on ex racehorses with a view to re-home them after their racing careers are over.
I trust that you donate to these racehorse charities? I DO!
quite simply if it offends you - don't watch the Grand National nor any other form of racing of any animal.
How do I pick a winner. Well, I choose a horse that I know has run reasonably well over longer distance chases - in the past, on the particular type of going that will be on the day of the Grand National. I havn't checked this years card as yet but chose Comply or Die last year and generally speaking get a placed horse.
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and furthermore in answer to nagpassion's third to last paragraph. I think you would generally find that 'fit' racehorses are on the contrary to how you describe. It is usually the ones that have come in from their summer holidays that are 'fresh' - when they are fit and back in a daily routine they are quite docile animals and not under the umbrella in which you have put them.
Still have not checked the entries as yet!
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Fiona (watsonfee) - Sorry to disappoint you but your grandfather never rode in the race. I can't help you with the Foxhunters. Perhaps Aintree keep a record - it might be worth emailling them. If not it would probably mean a trawl through newspaper archives. You could try your local library or the Guardian and Observer have an online archive (not free) at http://archive.guardian.co.uk
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Firstly as an ex-owner I am very offended that I know nothing about Horse Racing and the horse which I adore (and who Is a happy hack with Nick Littmoden), has been forgotten, he never will be. And secondly after looking this morning at some awful Images which I cannot describe on a family forum (nothing to do with Horse Racing, one example a poor mongrel dog, starving to death with 3 legs and the other one just cut off, not even amputated properly, source: RSPCA). I find this extremely upsetting. Horse Racing Is Improving Itself (In some people's eyes It Is doing more than It has to now). I had a look last night at video footage of old Grand Nationals and the course has been modified tremendously, to the point that the Beechers Brook fence's drop on the landing side has been negated severly. I have nothing more to say on this Issue, although I will be trying to find out about owners who are having their animals put down In stables. This needs to be addressed and looked Into, that Is why I want to know the sourse of this accusation, and If possible where It came from. As for horses being treated badly, I had a chat with someone this morning who was, although having nothing against Horse Racing Itself, was very adamant that horses get treated badly. Remarkably this morning she ""conceded"" that ""racehorses get treated better than I do"", that woman happens to be my mum.
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Here we go the once a year the BBC show any interest in horseracing whilst at the same time they are decimating their coverage of the sport. All the money has gone on Formula 1 to watch high speed advertising hoardings driving round.
I think a little honesty is called for from people like Clare Balding who should be resigning over the BBC policy.
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Apparently they (the BBC) are going to drop the level of Horse Racing coverage by 50%. There are petitions that can be signed In bookmakers around the country and on the RacingPost.com website. Although the BBC's coverage of Horse Racing Is superb, please could we have a fundamental and honest answer on ""The One Show"" from the team of Claire Balding as to future plans. I have loked at the Immediate future planning of the BBc regarding Horse Racing coverage, and It appears the BBC ""cherry-pick"" the meetings It wants. I understand the BBC have all Its viewers to take Into account because of the license fee etc.....but It seems to me (as already stated) that the BBC were DESPERATE for the formula one package, perhaps at the expense of other sports.
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had a brief look and quite like the look of State of Play, My Will, Cloudy Lane and Cornish Sett ...... oh and Silver Birch!!! lol :-) (I agree with Bathb0y about other things too!)
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I have only just emailed the BBC regarding the above question of coverage of Horse Racing, and even thought It maybe a good Idea to have an explanation on ""The One Show"" from Claire Balding herself. The truth Is I just want an answer. I would love to know because (as a sports fan generally) the BBC seem to be (from many In the outside World) Ignoring sport all together and just want the best on offer, and even when they cover the best sports (eg Horse Racing) they only want ""certain bits"". C'mon ""The One Show"" you are there for the public, lets have an answer please. For many this Is Important. I realise It Is only sport at the end of the day, but It would be nice. For there are many people that I know questioning whether the BBC want much Involvement In sport anymore. People pay they're license fee and everybody should be catered for, but there are an awful lot of sports fans who feel they are not. I know there Is satellite broadcasters etc.....but this Is becoming a tired arguement. Let's have some truths please.
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I have been watching, on The One Show this week, all about 'the glorious ' Grand National and all the excitement on the lead up to it. Why has there been no mention about the other side of this race, no mention at all so far about all the horses that get killed during this race every year.
Lets not forget these other heros of the race who give there all for this sport but who die trying.
Thankyou.
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I am so saddened that it is business as usual on the One Show, promoting the vile industry that killed Mckelvey last year. Everyone who places a bet is responsible and no-one who cares about an animal would risk its life in this way.
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I just usually study the previous winner trends.
age 8-12
weight 11-1 and under
chase history
I'm backing the following 6 horses
Rambling Minster
Parsons Legacy
Cornsih Sett
Southern Vic
Darkness
Kilbeggan Blade
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Before anybody pulls me up for using this page to comment, bear in mind there was no "what do you think about the Grand National?" option.
Well done nagpassion (post 5) for drawing attention to the other side of the story. As a BBC licence payer I expect to hear it, but so far on the OneShow I've heard no mention of horse fatalities at the Grand National. For instance, how many people listening to the show last night knew that 2 horses had already died at the Aintree meet? I didn't until I checked in with the AnimalAid website this morning.
"Thousands might be against Horse Racing, yet millions bet on It." (says post 9) Yes, .... is that possibly because they don't know the full story?
Come on Auntie Beeb, do your duty and give the issue a proper airing, not just a passing comment easily missed or forgotten.
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I fully support Nagpassion and DallyMad. You want facts and figures? Just have a look at the Animal Aid site and judge for yourself.
From http://www.animalaid.org.uk, 02-Apr-09
"The first day of the Grand National three-day meeting has claimed the lives of two horses. One was the highly-rated Exotic Dancer, the other was Mel In Blue, a horse with a track record at the other end of the ratings scale.
Exotic Dancer, riding in the 3-mile Totesport Bowl Chase, managed to finish second after being pushed hard for about half the race. Back in the stables, he suffered a fatal heart attack. Mel in Blue was riding in the Foxhunters? Chase, run over 2-and-3/4 miles of the Grand National course. "
It's time we got rid of this barbaric race.
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Dear Nagpassion,Dallymad,animal aid :- the following are just a couple of google search items I have found, regarding horses killed on Britains roads. These are just two examples of hundreds. Not killed on a racecourse. The second example is a racehorse.
I have also had a quick look at the Animalaid site and was interested to see that only horse racing as an equine sport is targeted. What about all the other equine sports? From gymkana's/showjumping/eventing??? What about all those horses that go 'trotting' pulling traps? and those tethered to the roadside. Those horses that are left in fields with no water??? Surely you should be helping the neglected first and foremost? I'll wager that NONE of you have ever been to a racing yard to see how well the horses are looked after.
Two excerpts are as follows:-
At approximately 1.30pm yesterday, Wednesday February 6, police attended a road traffic collision between a vehicle and a horse and rider in Butt Street, Minchinhampton.
The rider, a local woman believed to be in her 50s, was taken to Frenchay hospital by air ambulance with suspected head injuries.
Sadly the horse died at the scene and was removed by a local vet.
******************
Tuesday, 9 January, 2001, 16:01 GMT
Racehorse dies after 'road rage' clash
Police are investigating after a racehorse was killed in an alleged road rage incident.
Six-year-old Toblersong's leg was severed after a car apparently reversed into him.
The horse's injuries were so severe that he had to be destroyed.
Toblersong was one of four horses walking back to the stables at Epsom when the incident happened on Monday.
*****************************
On another thread, Animalaid, I have two rescued dogs: one was found - he'd been tied up for days with no food by a piece of washing line tight around his neck. He is with me now.
Can you not look from the outside of the box and see there are other animal issues that need dealing with on a daily basis - as opposed to striking out at the Grand National and horse racing. Animals of all kinds are being mistreated and abused every single day.
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I have a big problem with the Grand National - surely anyone who has watched it must have seen the horrific sight of horses falling, sometimes even somersaulting over the jumps. I cannot bear to watch beautiful horses being injured - fatally in some cases. I don't object to horse racing as such as the horses often seem to enjoy the experience, but I think the Grand National should be made safer for the horses. The riders make informed choices - the horses don't!
Claudia
Ireland
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Hello to all, first time on a blog, would like some help please.
on friday nite show, a fun race was help at the end of show using ride on horses, I am hold a charity event very soon and would like to know were I could buy or hire the same?
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State OF play, To/Win
Off Shore Account,E/Way
Parsons Legacy, E/Way
my tips for 2day
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Just watched the Grand National. How offensive of Clare Balding to ridicule the winning jockey about his teeth. Would she enjoy it if someone poked fun at her personal weaknesses (not to be mentioned here!!)? She has shown herself to be a right old b****!!
uncleaubrey
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I have enjoyed the race, I've won nothing, just happy riders and horses have come to no harm. POST 31, I agree with you, it was obvious he did'nt want to display his teeth, but she made him do it anyway.
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yes, how exciting - how brilliant was Liam Treadwell?? What a jockey.
I picked State of Play and My Will on a post here a couple of days ago - and the comments Clare Balding made about Liam's teeth were rather harsh! He 'hands and heeled' that horse - brilliant - what a talent - and with that 40/1 second he rode the other day too. A young jockey, a true horseman with bags of talent.
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I have just sent the following complaint to the BBC as I feel so outraged at Ms Baldings terrible behaviour towards someone who had just achieve something so difficult:
I want to express my absolute disgust at the comments made to the winning jockey of the Grand National yesyerday, about his teeth, by Clare Balding.
My wife and I could not believe what we were hearing, after seeing Liam Treadwell's amazing win in the world's toughest horse racing event!.
The BBC should make her apologise for her insulting comments and outrageous unprofessional behaviour.
I cannot believe on the back of the Ross / Brand fiasco, that someone, who is probably paid a rediculous amount of money to think of nothing more constructive and positive to say to the winner of such a gruelling race.
I cannot imagine what Liam must have lelt like to be stood there, one moment feeling so elated for being the best at something so challenging, to then have Clare make him feel so small to the watching nation.
Shame on you Clare for bullying someone who was completely off of their guard (I bet it was the last thing Mr Treadwell was expecting to hear). Shame on the BBC for letting Clare loose with an obvious attitude issue. If I had have been in Liam's shoes yesterday, my response to Clare would have been unbroadcastable!! I trust Clare will not have the priviledge of greeting next year's Grand National winner??
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Good for you, GrahamLoughborough - I think Liam handled the most inappropriate ever, comment which much magnanimity. A true gent!
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Post 34, GOOD ON YOU!!
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Post 34, your complaint has worked, Claire Balding has appologised for remarks about Liams teeth, WELL DONE!!
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Post 34 - Great to hear that Clare Balding has apologised for her rude comment. :-)
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Cheeryhorseracingfan says
"On another thread, Animalaid, I have two rescued dogs: one was found - he'd been tied up for days with no food by a piece of washing line tight around his neck. He is with me now.
Can you not look from the outside of the box and see there are other animal issues that need dealing with on a daily basis - as opposed to striking out at the Grand National and horse racing. Animals of all kinds are being mistreated and abused every single day. "
I'm glad that you rescued that poor dog and you're absolutely right, animals of all kinds are being abused every day, HOWEVER, that fact does not make horseracing RIGHT.
And geordieangel2 says: "I have enjoyed the race, I've won nothing, just happy riders and horses have come to no harm."
WRONG! One horse died following the Grand National and 4 horses died after or during the previous two days racing - or don't their lives count?
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