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Niall Ferguson: Reith Lecture pt.1 - The Human Hive

Tuesday 19 June 2012, 10:00

Richard Fenton-Smith Richard Fenton-Smith

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Professor Niall Fergusson presents The Reith Lectures on BBC Radio 4

"Society is a contract… the state is a partnership not only between those who are living, but between those who are living, those who are dead, and those who are yet to be born."

This quote from the 18th Century political theorist and philosopher Edmund Burke summarises much of the argument put forward in the first of the 2012 Reith Lectures given by the economic historian Niall Ferguson, which broadcast on Radio 4 this morning.

Professor Ferguson says we are currently witnessing an unparalleled breach of this partnership because of the huge debts being racked up by governments, which are set to be passed on to younger - and unborn - generations.

Furthermore, says Professor Ferguson, many governments are dishonest about their true level of debt. The present system, he says, is "fraudulent" and "huge government liabilities are hidden from view."

"No legitimate business could carry on in this manner and the last corporation to publish financial statements this misleading was Enron."

In the lecture, Professor Ferguson listed a series of proposals for reform of government finances:

  • Public sector balance sheets should be drawn-up so that government liabilities can be compared to assets.
  • Governments should adopt the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, which corporations abide by.
  • Above all, governments should be prepared, on a regular basis, to make absolutely clear the inter-generational implications of current fiscal policy.

In the current climate, austerity is something young voters in particular should welcome, he argues - but concedes that winning support for this is a mountainous task.

But, says Professor Ferguson, if we do not embark on wholesale reform of government finance, we will end up with the scenario where Western democracies are going to carry on until one after another they follow Greece and other Mediterranean economies into "the fiscal spiral of death".

Alternatively, we all become like Japan and face decades of low to zero growth.

What do you think of the issues raised in the lecture?

  • Are Western democracies in denial about their debt levels?
  • Are the alternatives to austerity more effective?
  • Do you agree the baby boomers have benefited at the expense of younger generations?

Listen to the full lecture on the Radio 4 website

Download Niall Ferguson's 2012 Reith Lectures

Richard Fenton Smith is a Senior Broadcast Journalist for News and Current Affairs Radio.

Niall Ferguson's first Reith Lecture, titled The Human Hive, will be repeated on Radio 4 on Saturday, 23 June at 22:15 BST.

The second lecture in the series, titled The Darwinian Economy, will examine the issue of financial regulation. This will broadcast on Radio 4 on Tuesday, 26 June at 09:00 BST

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Comments

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    Comment number 1.

    At last, someone who points out the profligacy of relying on future income (taxation) to pay for present follies. He also implies that the position of successive chancellors on hypothecation (ring-fencing funds for their - apparently - intended purpose) is foolish, even fraudulent.
    The effect of this and of the present ethos of financial dealings (to be covered, it seems, in another lecture) on society at large is summed up in a well-known song,
    "I want it all and I want it now!"

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    I thought this was supposed to be a programme that fermented the best of thinking and outlined potential future directions. Instead the "unbiased" BBC has handed a neocon, neoliberal "thinker" huge amounts of unchallenged airtime to propagate the exact muddle-headed "solutions" that got us into this sorry pass instead.

    How about a real alternative thinker who doesn't subscribe wholeheartedly to the Chicago school of economic wrecking? No. Bit too radical and non-Conservative for the BBC to consider, just as they never get alternative viewpoints on their news programmes or bulletins either. Pathetic - our greatest economists will be spinning in their graves.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    This is completely the wrong format for his kind of content and it really does make you wonder what on earth the radio 4's editorial team are up to. When at the end of the lecture he essentially says the message of this lecture is to "vote conservative" , how can this be seen as anything other than 45 min political broadcast.

    Don't get me wrong I disagree with Fergusson's views but they should be part of a debate on wider issues of economic history and policy. Wouldn't it have been much better, fairer and in keeping with the BBC's mission of impartiality to have had a series where Fergusson was in conversation with someone on the left such as Will Hutton, to provide both sides of the argument.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    Niall Ferguson argues that the older generation are leaving unsustainable debts to the younger generation and suggests that budget cuts, logically to fall on older people, are the solution. The current generation of pensioners paid 40+ percent of income in direct taxes, as opposed to the 30 percent paid by current workers. Another solution would be to raise direct taxes. In any case UK government debt has been incurred by the bank rescue, not by government expenditure. The problems are too complex to deal with in four short lectures. Demonising pensioners, most of whom live on savings through pension plans, is no answer.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    I was fascinated by Niall's analysis, based on the development and decline of the UK's institutional framework. In his next lecture he mentions the word 'Darwinian', and likewise he implies that these institutions are experiencing a Darwinian cycle of flourish, flower and decline.

    I agree that the insertion of party-political comments is not helpful, and people tend to jump on this with arguments-by-assertion for and against. However if we listen to Niall's theories, they are fascinating enough to keep us out of the political mud-wrestling.

    I'd like to hear the evolutionary analysis extended a bit. For example, if Darwin posits the survival of the fittest by natural selection ('fittest' being 'most adapted to the environment' and not 'best'), then what does that mean for the evolution of our institutions? How can we adapt them to improve 'outcomes'? Because after all we are part of the evolutionary process, and can affect it to a certain extent for better or worse. Maybe more will be explored in the next lecture.

 

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