BBC Blog Network

User Profile

triandtriagain

Listed below are comments made by triandtriagain between Tuesday, 27th January 2009 and Friday, 1st May 2009.

«Newer
Older»

Busted 10:31am on 01 May 2009 As well as having lessons for economic policy, I think that which of the two stories about past growth is true also influences our expectations of how quickly we grow again.

The rosy HMT view assumes a sharp turn around to trend growth, which is a reasonable assumption if all the loss in output is due to an exceptional external shock.

If, however, we are bust after a boom, then the turn back to trend growth is likely to be slower, as there will be more deadwood to clear out of the economy. In this (much more likely) view, a return to healthy growth as quickly as the HMT forecasts say is very unlikely. Which rather messes up the borrowing figures in the next few years.
A cuckoo in the stock market? 11:21am on 06 Apr 2009 An alternative explanation for the bouncyness in stock prices is that traders have come to the view that all this furious interest rate slashing and money creation is going to lead to a nasty dose of inflation. Remember, stock indexes are nominal.

Similarly - upticks in credit availability and house prices, in the absence of any real growth, could just be indicators of inflation.

With all the novel policy action going on, it must be almost impossible that the authorities will hit a stable growth with low inflation outcome first time.
BBC and the Gaza appeal 09:00am on 27 Jan 2009 Shame on you Mark Thompson. You will one day come to realise how wrong this decision was.

«Newer
Older»

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites