BBC Blog Network

Listed below are comments made by razzie between Sunday, 6th July 2008 and Monday, 10th November 2008.

• «Newer
• Older»

• Turnout turnaround? 2:38pm on 10 Nov 2008 The raw turnout numbers in some states are not necessarily a good reflection of the voting pool (how many voters there are).
  
  For example, if one moves within the state of North Carolina and they re-register at their new home, their old registration is cancelled if they listed their old address. If they did not, they "might not come off" straight away and essentially be counted twice in the "registration pool". If someone moves outside of the state, they may remain on the list for several years.
  
  The list of registred voters is purged down of "latent voters" every couple of years, and not in the EVEN years (when Federal Elections occur). Different states may have different levels of this problem.
  
  Here in NC the 2008 General Election % turnout is just over 69%; which is a few points higher than a four years, but the total vote is some 800,000 more votes.
  
  The state of NC has grown significantly in terms of population, in 2000 we had a population of around 8 million, in 2004 that was 8.5M and now we are around 9.1M. A population growth of 600,000 in the last four years by population (which will include children and aliens), has helped with the voting growth of 800,000 between the two elections.
  
  Further, in 2004, George Bush won NC with a 13% margin, this year Obama has won the state with less than 1%. It is a significant swing, but we were very close. Hence it took a couple of days before the state was declared.
  
  The key things is, we are now a BLUE state.
• An end to "victimhood"? 9:09pm on 06 Nov 2008 It now looks like Obama has won the state of North Carolina, but with a very small margin.
  
  A week ago, the New York Times published an article about the
  confusing NC Ballot.
  
  I feel NC is victim of this ballot. The current margin before all the provisionals are counted is 13,000 (give or take). The under ballots in NC are around 48,000 (give or take). This means, 48,000 people voted, but their vote for President is NOT being considered. Some will be spoiled ballots, but many will be "under ballots" where citizens selected ....
  
  STRAIGHT PARTY
  
  and did not also check the box for Obama, McCain or Barr (the three choices in NC). In NC, Straight Party voting does NOT apply to Presidential.
  
  Altough I do not think it likely, it is possible that the McCain has lost enough "under votes" to deny him victory in NC.
  
  As things have worked out with results in other states it does not matter that much, BUT IT COULD HAVE.
  
  I would be angry if things were the other way around, i.e. had Obama lost by an equal margin.
  
  Some in NC might say this is rough justice and we should reflect on FL in 2000 and OH in 2004. The US needs to find a way to fix voting issues.
  
  Darrell
  Durham, North Carolina
• Election 2008 - Live 06:43am on 05 Nov 2008 Add on North Carolina too. We have been through the county by county tallies .... we also know that the provisional ballots will favor Democrats - in part because of the new registrations lead by the DEM's.
  
  NC Turned Blue ... first time since 1976 with Jimmy Carter.
• Extra time 11:29pm on 04 Nov 2008 #7. The decision to extend hours here in Durham precinct 34 was appealed by the GOP and upheld by election judge. It will close at 19:30 along with all our other precincts (57 in total).
  
  However, the GOP (Repulblicans) in Durham county lost all observers however. It was cited as "clerical error", they did not submit their names by the deadline.
  
  The following local news story does not present it this way ....
  
  http://www.wtkr.com/Global/story.asp?S=9291798&nav=menu78_1_10
  
  Durham is a strong DEM town but it has rained all day, sometimes hard and turnout is less then projected, even factoring in the early vote performance. NC remains close.
• Frayed Nerves and Rumours 2:32pm on 02 Nov 2008 Other states are running very close too... I live in North Carolina and around half of those that will vote have already voted (average NC tiunout has been 68%, it may get to 75% this year), 41.2% have already voted and the DEM party affiliated voters are leading in that.
  
  NC Early Voter numbers.
  
  I hope and trust that on Tuesday night that we see NC has voted for Obama, and elected a DEM Govenor (our current Lt Govenor is running for the top job), and that we also split our Senators by electing a DEM to the US Senate in Kay Hagan.
  
  IF .... NC does vote for Obama, and I expect it to do this .... it will be a landslide. Obama could get 340 or more college votes.
• 'A wonderful man' 07:26am on 22 Oct 2008 Here in NC the election has already started with early voting. The popular vote in NC so far will be with Obama.
  
  The State Board of Elections is releasong the data already .... the party
  affilaition of the voter.
  
  You can verify the NC voter counts from the
  NC State Board of Elections.
  
  NC also allows straight party voting .... pick the President, then pick the party. As such, Senator Dole should be in trouble.
  
  A brief summary is that over the first six days Democrats are voting at the rate of
  2 to 1 over the Republicans. This will no doubt change, but here in NC .... the DEM party is fired up and hitting voters NOW.
  
  If enough of the DEM vote shows up .... which has been a weakness in NC over several elections .... Obama will win here. He could be the first DEM Presidential
  candiadate since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win NC.
  
  A summary of the NC count as a proportion of registered voters on....
  
  http://turningncblue.com/earlyvote.php. It also details the early vote process; citizens in NC can still register to vote.
  
  If states like NC do pick Obama .... he will win the college vote AND the popular vote. In fact, it may not be close if this happens as NC is historically a very SAFE Republican State in Federal Elections (1976 - Jimmy Carter). To win NC he probably wins VA and CO too.
• Should McCain have picked Romney? 05:51am on 24 Sep 2008 Palin is prompting more comment than she should. She is govenor of one of the 50 states ..... that should warrant a level of respect.
  
  However, whether McCain should have picked her or Romney .... I feel is mute .... is not going to win with either and the US is due a renascence under the Presidency of Barack Obama.
  
  Further, I trust that he will win my home state of North Carolina .... the most recent polls put him even.
  
  http://www.turningncblue.com
  
  Most recent poll:
  
  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_92168.pdf
  
  Yes we can, and we need to.
• Quintessential political steel 10:53pm on 27 Aug 2008 #22 "upped regstration".
  
  Yes Obama and the DNC has. In North Carolina the new Democrat registrations in 2008 are getting close to matching the "polling gap". This put the state about even, with 43 days more to go for for voter registration.
  
  http://turningncblue.com/demog_totals.php
  
  Add to this the nominal thought that polling of new registrations lags the change in the demographics, and that polling of young voters and African American is lower than its representation (both groups are likely to favor Obama) and NC is very much in play.
  
  What are the thoughts on an Obama Landslide?
  
  Hillary's speach last night has done wonders in appeasing some of her voters, and altough I understand several NC Delegates for her will still cast their ballots for her tonight, they will work for Obama for the remaining nine weeks of the campaign.
  
  I also do not think the DNC handpicked Obama. Going back a few months the super-delegate majority was in HRC's camp rather than Obama's. Multiple Superdelegates took the view they would support the popular vote in their congressional district, including the SG for the district I live in. That is not the DNC deciding.
• Biden a necessary antidote 00:11am on 24 Aug 2008 Biden is a good choice for Obama. He covers bases where there is a perceived gap.
  
  Roll on November 4th for Obama to be elected and 20th January for the US to start the post Bush recovery.
• Obama's Iraq shift? 00:07am on 06 Jul 2008 Obama has said before that he would consult with military commanders before making final decisions. His statement to me have been his vision of what he would like to see (I would love to see the troops out in 16 months), but ..... until he has access to the real data ..... such a decision can not be made.
  
  I do not trust the information from the current administration, why should he. There is much kept very hush hush me thinks. Buy in to the vision, lets have our troops home sometime in 2010 or so, but the final when ..... it would not be prudent to say without access to the "in data".

• «Newer
• Older»

BBC.co.uk