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ray564k

Listed below are comments made by ray564k between Saturday, 31st January 2009 and Thursday, 10th September 2009.

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Liveblogging Obama's health speech 03:13am on 10 Sep 2009 #12 Scott-

You missed out in his explanation to pay for it all- the fact that if he's wrong there is a contingency plan.

One of the boldest things I thought was that he said that if expected savings did not materialise- then he would have to cut spending, because he would write it into the bill. So even if you are right, and he is wrong (and I would point out that he has a much larger team of experts at this point), and the plan doesn't pay for itself, he has to make spending cuts, so that it will.

That won't be popular when the time comes- but for now, it gives democrats a powerful argument against the allegation that the savings won't be as much as Obama is hoping.
Liveblogging Obama's health speech 03:08am on 10 Sep 2009 Cracking speech, and I loved your comment about constructive ambiguity- that's exactly what it is!
I think the surprise of tort reform/malpractice may have won over independent voters- crucial to him getting the support of blue dog democrats. Moving to the centre makes sense politically since it isolates further the Republicans.

His little bit about talking to seniors directly- clearly aimed at 2010 Midterms when seniors turn out and the young voters may not. That may not have been quite enough- just saying efficiency without listing examples- was a weak part of the speech for me. I thought he looked most uncomfortable talking in this section. BUT

I am now convinced that he will get a bill with most of what he wants. The reality of the situation is that American healthcare is so bad, so poorly constructed that even getting most of what he wants is good enough to measurably and noticeably improve the situation.
Life in the old dogs yet 6:26pm on 30 Aug 2009 Hey Phil- I don't suppose you read this far down- I know I don't bother-but I just thought I'd say this was a really good blog, very fair-minded.

Ferguson will be concerned that his side didn't play great- but we're four games in, there's plenty of time. Berbatov hasn't quite gelled yet with Rooney- but his quality is clear, his first touch is incredible sometimes. Those writing off Man U based on an (above?) average start are premature- I'd be surprised if they didn't finish in the top 2. You highlight an excellent point though that an injury to rooney could really cost them. I think Ferguson will buy a striker in January- especially if Michael Owen's injury problems return.

I'm very pleased to see Arsenal looking strong again, as a Blackburn fan I can really appreciate their football! Arshavin looks a great signing, and well worth the money. I still think that Arsenal don't quite have the depth in their squad- but I'd like to think they can push on into third at least.
Obama's Iran dilemma 11:37pm on 15 Jun 2009 Respectfully disagree Justin- the result of this election will be increased pressure on Obama to put more pressure on Iran... While Iran is not a democracy, and has only a limited form of pluralism, this form of government had helped preserve the Iranian Republic, electing populists like Ahmadinejad to 'put oil money on people's tables', and insulating the clerics from daily politics.

If the election is as rigged as people suspect then a potentially critical blow has been struck at the Iranian regime. If voter fraud can be proved to the public- the Ayatollahs pretence of democracy despite velayat-e faqih, will have been shown up. In the war of ideas on establishing a deeper, more substantive version of democracy- the fact that the clerics had to intervene to cheat (when previously they have allowed reformers such as Khatami into government) will be remembered as a very important moment. All of these things increase the likelihood that US pressure can have more of an effect in an Iran divided against itself.
More philosophical question about torture 10:20pm on 24 Apr 2009 I think you're right that legal proceedings may happen anyway Justin.

Paul Krugman makes the point that Obama's excuse that he's too busy to deal with looking at Bush's administration is just that, an excuse.

In reality it's the justice department that deals with all this, and there's no reason why it should take up any of his time or Treasury Secretary Geithner's time.

He's not been getting any bipartisanship from the Republicans thus far- so why worry about losing what you've never had?
The real question about waterboarding 11:42am on 21 Apr 2009 If we accept that the British government does not torture people- is Britain more at risk to terrorism than the USA? I would argue not.

Is anyone going to take the blame for the fact that someone lied about how many times waterboarding had been used?

I thought not.

But the real question is if Obama wanted (as the democratically elected head of state) to prosecute people in the CIA and outside, would he even be able to?

I very much doubt that if he wanted to go down the prosecution route he would be able to secure prosecutions- far more likely the CIA would simply close ranks. Combined with a public (i.e. FOX news) outcry- I think politically he wouldn't be able to do it. Certainly it would kill any chances of healthcare reform and most of his other campaign promises.

And that is a sad indictment on this 'democracy'.
Trucks - the coming trade war? 08:33am on 18 Mar 2009 - The safety standards thing is just a smokescreen- playing on people's fears and prejudices about Mexicans.

#58 throws up a whole load of problems that don't really count for very much, "Are Mexican drivers a danger to Americans? Yes." What constitutes an appropriate level of danger- presumably one Mexican driver represents a danger to Americans...

The simple fact is that either the US accepts its obligations by NAFTA which it has agreed to, or it must leave. If the Mexicans really were breaking NAFTA- then you can be sure US officials would be making a lot of noise on that point. But they're not.
Is Obama drifting? 09:26am on 13 Mar 2009 I agree with Justin- bizarre that Obama should back a controversial (but in my view excellent) candidate and then abandon him so quickly. Surely he was picked to stir up the establishment- so why drop him when he ruffles a few feathers?

The statements he's made (or at least the ones I've seen) are not that controversial at all- of course American support means Israel feels little pressure to seriously engage with the peace process.

My thinking is that Obama has realised that the MEast situation is not something he wants to run on in 2012- and so he'll try and make small, non-media worth changes before then. If he gets re-elected, then he'll go for it with his second term, a la Clinton.
Spending priorities 3:02pm on 18 Feb 2009 Justin you are right in the sense that much of the money is there to make the bill more politically feasible.

But you're pointing at the wrong bits. It's the tax cuts which will make no difference, and were in the bill to get it to pass with 3 R Senators' votes.

It also has the handy effect of disarming Republican arguments in favour of tax cuts in 2010/2012- if they're so in favour of tax cuts, why did they vote against the largest tax cut in history?

If I am in a job and receive a tax cut, but suspect I am going to lose my job, I'll just put that money into the bank to save. WHATEVER the interest rate.

If on the other hand, I have no job, and then get one, working to build schools for instance, then I will go out and spend because I now have a job.

That's why govt spending is the answer in severe recessions- which is now- but changing interest rates can tweak things when we're in a slight slowdown/want to raise growth.
Obama confuses his enemies 12:43pm on 31 Jan 2009 #25 allmymarbles:

I think #24 is slightly confused- Dr Mossadegh was elected, and was deposed by a joint US and British plot- the evidence is substantial for this. But he was placed under house arrest until he died- not assasinated.

This was largely because he planned to nationalise oil. He was probably Iran's last chance for a 'secular' democratic leader.

As for the US tampering with elections- I have no idea.

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