The swine flu paradox5:43pm on 30 Oct 2009Thanks to alayton81 and snork41. I promise to pursue this. There are 11,000 GP practices in the UK. Each one will get an initial box of 500 doses within the next three to four weeks. That makes 5.5 million doses. The government has five million doses of Pandemrix in stock already.
Even allowing for doses going to front line health workers, there is plenty of vaccine there to distribute. But the Department of Health says it is going as quickly as possible and these need to be sent out under temperature control. And it is dependent on the manufacturers regarding subsequent deliveries.
Now we come to the tough part. There will undoubtedly be deaths and hospitalisations among vaccine-eligible people in the weeks ahead. To date, such tragic events have been unavoidable. But what about in, say, a month's time? Their families and GPs may well be unhappy about the length of time that the distribution is taking.
The Leicester trial looked at the Novartis vaccine which is not being used in the UK. As my new post attempted (clearly not successfully!) to make clear, this multi-centre trial is testing the Baxter and GSK vaccines which will be used here.
MajorGallagher: we may have enough doses for half the UK population by the end of the year, but that still leaves 30 million people. The vaccine will be refused by many and is likely to be ineffective in some who opt for it.
Furthermore, the virus may mutate - as all flu viruses do. That's the reason why a new seasonal flu jab is needed each year. So a new vaccine might be needed for winter 2010. So, all in all, there will be plenty of people in the community who can be infected a year from now.
Comment 6. The WHO figures are a huge underestimate of cases because many countries are not testing their populations.
I don't have a medical background, but one in journalism and have been reporting on health and science for many years. You may feel that makes me unqualified to make any informed comments on flu or any other medical topic.
Please pick up on any comments in the blog which you feel are incorrect. I welcome input into the blog from those with and without qualifications.
Number of UK cases12:49pm on 05 Jun 2009Thanks to celticbedouin for raising the point about the Canadian total. The latest figure I have for Canada, on Friday 5 June, from the WHO is 1795 cases and 3 deaths. Currently the figure is 1530 on the map, and hopefully this will be updated soon.
John_from_Hendon - I can assure you that I'd far rather report on some incredible new breakthrough treatment for cancer or a cure for HIV/Aids than about sickness and some deaths from a flu pandemic. But the nature of being medical correspondent is that you are often the bearer of bad news. I don't need a pandemic, and will be delighted to shut down the blog if it all goes away - really!