BBC Blog Network

User Profile

naturaleconomist

Listed below are comments made by naturaleconomist between Wednesday, 25th March 2009 and Thursday, 23rd April 2009.

«Newer
Older»

A truly historic Budget 11:04am on 23 Apr 2009 God help us…… as this Government will not……. it does not have a clue! Unless you are in the top 1% or the bottom >5% this budget is going to do nothing for you other than tax you and tax you hard. The 50% tax rate was just a good sound bite and will do little to raise any money. Those at the top will just find another way around these new measures, if they have not already done so.

The government continues to spend what it does not have on the off chance that they can scrape a victory in the next election. And if they don’t win then it will be all down to the Conservatives to put right. Sound familiar A La 1979?

By the way I can not believe that there was not more challenge from yourself, Robert and the others reviewing the budget speech to the predicted outturn: Growth next year! And not only growth but growth over 1% with 2 ¾% the following year. How can these figures be so different to those of any other institutions or pundits? The IMF is forecasting contraction of just under 1/2% next year that is nearly a variance of 2% against the Chancellors forecast. Why such a difference or is it just, that he, along with the treasury are just out of their league and can not cope with the current situation. There does appear to be an inability to accept responsibility for the current situation or even the it’s severity.

Is it not about time we held our politicians and pundits to book when their forecasts are so far off the mark? It is just months ago that we had the pre budget report which was so far off the mark. if you were running a company and were so bad at forecasting you would not be getting off so easily. It is not as if it is just Darling sitting in a room pulling these figures together, there is a small army in the Treasury and NuLab creating this piece of fiction and so far the interviews I have seen of the various ministers including the PM and his Darling have not really challenged them on the fact that their pre budget forecast was so far off the mark and that the forecast in the budget is at best wildly optimistic.

Finally, unless they change the culture of the public sector they will never deliver savings on the scale needed. The question we have to ask is have they ever actually delivered savings? If those identified in the Gershon review and the last spending review SR07 were achieved we surely would have seen the benefits come through in the various budgets and spending plans. I would suggest that all that they did was to rearrange the deck chairs moving costs from one department to another and or create new departments to warehouse costs. Surely there should be a challenge set to the NAO to report on the actual savings achieved rather than just those declared. Otherwise it is just like Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Funding record borrowing 5:20pm on 22 Apr 2009 rbs_temp wrote:

Being a person of no political persuasion I find it frustrating that we have individuals who follow and support parties blindly. I am originally from Wales and historically you could have put up a donkey for election to represent Labor and by God did they put some donkeys forward. I was hoping that this was not still the case and at least we the electorate would challenge our politicians and when appropriate hold them to account. Not only has this government brought this country to its knees through miss management of the economy; it has acted immorally taking us into an unjust war and now would appear to be rotten to the core. In time gone by a minister would have fallen on their sword if they were caught stepping out of line. Now it appears, as far as New Labor are concerned, there is no line. Because without trust a politician has nothing and how can you trust ministers; who claim what at best can be called dubious expenses, have to leave government not once but twice under a cloud Etc. Etc. So please, yes let us all get involved in politics, but let us hold all our representatives to account because unless we do we will only get what we deserve. We just have to look at recent history to see this is the case.
Funding record borrowing 3:42pm on 22 Apr 2009 God help us…… as this Government will not……. it does not have a clue! Unless you are in the top 1% or the bottom 5% this budget is going to do nothing to you or for you other than tax you and tax you hard.

The government continues to spend what it does not have on the off chance that they can scrape a victory in the next election. And if they don’t win then it will be all down to the Conservatives to put right. Sound familiar?

By the way I can not believe that there was not more challenge from yourself, Nick and the others reviewing the budget speech to the predicted outturn: Growth next year! And not only growth but growth over 1% with 2 ¾% the following year. How can these figures be so different to those of any other institutions or pundits? The IMF is forecasting contraction of just under 1/2% next year that is nearly a variance of 2% against the Chancellors forecast. Why such a difference or is it just, that he, along with the treasury are just out of their league and can not cope with the current situation. There does appear to be an inability to accept responsibility for the current situation or even the it’s severity.

Finally, unless they change the culture of the public sector they will never deliver savings on the scale needed. The question we have to ask is have they ever actually delivered savings? If those identified in the Gershon review and the last spending review SR07 were achieved we surely would have seen the benefits come through in the various budgets and spending plans. I would suggest that all that they did was to rearrange the deck chairs moving costs from one department to another and or create new departments to warehouse costs. Surely there should be a challenge set to the NAO to report on the actual savings achieved rather than just those declared. Otherwise it is just like Turkeys voting for Christmas.
Worthy or wasteful? 11:02pm on 20 Apr 2009 This is just the start – Baby face Brown and his moll Darling will need to make many more daring raids if they are to pay for their big bank job.

And Tax is all they know how to do!

Unless they change the culture of the public sector they will never deliver savings on the scale needed. The question is have they ever delivered savings identified, such as those identified in the Gershon review and then agreed in the last spending review SR07 and we are already on the next review. I would suggest that they did not.

Turkeys voting for Christmas comes into mind.
Treasury wants to cut pensions tax break 3:08pm on 20 Apr 2009 This is just the start – Baby face Brown and his moll Darling will need to make many more daring raids if they are to pay for their big bank job.

And Tax is all they know how to do!

Unless they change the culture of the public sector they will never deliver savings on the scale needed. The question is have they ever delivered savings identified, such as those identified in the Gershon review and then agreed in the last spending review SR07 and we are already on the next review. I would suggest that they did not.

Turkeys voting for Christmas comes into mind.
Smith thought she'd be cleared 10:56am on 30 Mar 2009 For the first time I am truly appalled by your scribbling. No one can justify what she and others are doing. I find it abhorrent that you are trying to justify what she has done along with her husband who “sacrificed his own career” to take up a role as her secretary for £40k plus per year which also allows him to be at home to look after the kids…….

This is so totally biased and what about the other MP who has been claiming for a second home which turns out to be a holiday home or was it a caravan. He must have breathed a sigh of relief when our Dishonourable Member of Parliament topped his hand and pushed him back to page 3 of the mail or so I am told.

Come on and let us have a well balanced report and not one that is slanted one way or the other.
Nationwide to rescue Dunfermline 08:48am on 30 Mar 2009 We are not yet at the bottom and unless the financial institutions come clean this type of event could happen again and again and again. Possibly on a different scale but more is definitely to come. Why can’t we change the rules and get them to set the records straight. What are the FSA doing? They look very stupid and ineffectual at present.
PM chooses his words carefully 09:05am on 26 Mar 2009 I have a question that is off beat. Why is this government now announcing an inquiry on Iraq now? Am I being a little cynical about the timing? They say that it will start after the end of July; Parliament retires then for its summer break. It does not return until October. It will take several months to set up such an inquiry. So what are the chances that the inquiry will then issues its findings prior to the next election next May? Has this bean planned? Are they expecting us to have forgotten about this after another four years when they will be looking to get back into power? This just smells of a set up! Please tell me I am wrong or is this government that corrupt and manipulating?
Could Greece laser the euro? 3:38pm on 25 Mar 2009 Sorry I also wanted to include this snipit re the the new EU members from the East;

"The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other lenders have agreed in principle to provide Romania 20bn euros (£18.4bn; $27bn) in aid.

The IMF will lend 12.95bn euros, the European Union will provide 5bn euros and the World Bank will lend 1bn euros.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is to invest up to 1bn euros in Romania over two years.

Romania is the third EU nation to be given IMF aid recently, after loans were given to Latvia and Hungary."
Could Greece laser the euro? 2:52pm on 25 Mar 2009 #52

Just for your information, a couple of snipites from the press;

"This week’s revelation that steelmaker ThyssenKrupp was preparing to shed 3,000 jobs could mark a milestone in the country’s fall from economic grace, bringing the slump home to millions of workers and spelling the start of real trouble for its politicians."

“There is not a great deal of concern in the public so far,” says Manfred Güllner, head of the Forsa polling group. “Most people haven’t started to worry about their jobs quite yet.”

ThyssenKrupp’s move would make it the first large German industrial player to cut core staff in the downturn, breaking a tacit deal struck in January whereby the government agreed to support business against the latter’s pledge to renounce compulsory redundancies.

The government’s side of the deal was its second fiscal package. While the US and the UK have sought to encourage consumption, the German package, with its emphasis on public investments, access to credit and wage subsidies, aims to keep companies in business and employees in their jobs.

As a quid pro quo, Angela Merkel, the chancellor, obtained an informal promise from the heads of 30 blue-chip companies that they would retain their core staff. Although unemployment has risen since, job cuts have mainly targeted temporary workers.

Thousands of companies are also using a scheme, extended by the fiscal package, which allows them to send workers on holiday or put them on shorter working weeks, with the state footing part of their wages and payroll taxes for a maximum of 18 months.

With the ThyssenKrupp move, however, politicians now fear the fragile truce between state and business is coming to an end. Industry experts say the engineering sector alone could shed up to 1m jobs if the downturn extends beyond the summer, as it almost certainly will.

“The risk of a tidal wave of job cuts is increasing every day,” says Michael Fuchs, a Christian Democratic member of parliament and economic expert. “The downturn is turning out much worse than expected.”

«Newer
Older»

^ Back to top

BBC MMVI

The BBC is not responsible for the content of external internet sites

BBC.co.uk

BBC Blog Network

Find and talk to the BBC's bloggers.

User Profile

naturaleconomist