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Asopus

Listed below are comments made by Asopus between Monday, 6th July 2009 and Friday, 18th December 2009.

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COP15: First draft of Copenhagen's political declaration 11:39am on 18 Dec 2009 #26. "erm, they arnitrarily stopped using tree ring data when it stopped showing the trend they wanted, and then added thermometer data which did."

Arbitrarily??!! It isn’t arbitrary at all. The divergence problem with post-1960 tree ring proxies at high latitudes is well documented. You can identify where tree ring proxies diverge from the instrument record by looking at the instrument record. It is the practice to validate proxies for temperature against other proxies and, in this case, instrument records if those are available. That is all they did. Would you rather they stick with the tree rings that can be demonstrated to be incorrect?
COP15: First draft of Copenhagen's political declaration 10:44am on 18 Dec 2009 # 9 DisgustedOfMitcham2

Maybe we should wait until the investigation is completed, but at this stage I would like to highlight the way quotes from one of the emails has been taken out of context and used in a campaign of misinformation and smear. This is the notorious "hide the decline" email. If you read the email in context there is nothing untoward here, they are just finding a way around the well documented ‘divergence problem’ with post-1960 tree rings. The issue is explained more fully here:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hockey-stick-divergence-problem.html

and here:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Bright-Green/2009/1215/Climategate-global-warming-and-the-tree-rings-divergence-problem

Surely scientists shouldn’t be pilloried for substituting reliable data from thermometers for unreliable data from post-1960 tree-rings? The ‘divergence problem’ does raise issues about the reliability of tree rings for reconstructed past temperature, but that is not the way the issue is being presented in the popular press and on certain blogs. Instead we are seeing a mass misinformation campaign that ultimately only discredits the sceptic case.

On your question 2, I’m not going to respond as I count myself amongst the persuaded.
COP15: Titanic nears the harbour 09:44am on 17 Dec 2009 #84

The link to the Plimer Monbiot debate:

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2009/s2772906.htm
COP15: Climate 'scepticism' and questions about sex 09:23am on 16 Dec 2009 Since Richard has mentioned Ian Plimer, some might be interested in viewing Ian Plimer and George Monbiot debating on ABC. I suspect each ‘side’ will claim their man won, but personally I found it fascinating to see Plimer being accused very directly of scientific fraud, but struggling to come up with any response. The video lasts 25 minutes:

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2009/s2772906.htm
Cloud forecasting and Cosmic rays 4:01pm on 13 Nov 2009 Implicit in your blog is the notion that increased cloud cover caused by cosmic rays are going to save of from man-made climate change, even though incoming cosmic rays and greenhouse gases are (if I understand correctly) completely independent of each other.

Even if we were to accept at link between cloud cover and incoming cosmic rays, what reason is there to expect cloud cover to increase in future and negate changes driven by increased levels of greenhouse gases?

Clarification anyone?
Global temperatures - and the future 7:01pm on 11 Nov 2009 #90 PAWB46
Are you referring to this:
http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/homepage/Climate-change-false-alarm-claims-Bristol-University-professor/article-1499769-detail/article.html
Why do you cite that as supporting any of your assertions? The study is about carbon sinks not being in decline (I hope it is correct, for all our sakes).
Global temperatures - and the future 1:44pm on 11 Nov 2009 #73 PAWB46 - "There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers out there showing that the Medieval Warm Period was a global phenomenon. Therefore hockey sticks, purporting to show a thousand years of steady temperatures followed by a late 20th century temperature rise, are false."

The second sentence doesn't actually follow logically from the first sentence, and the existence of a global "warm" (an imprecise term) period in medieval times alone does not invalidate hockey stick studies. The important issue is whether, in the MWP, global temperatures were higher than global temperatures recorded recently.

I don’t claim to have an in-depth knowledge of the literature, so can PAWB46 or anyone else tell me of peer-reviewed studies (please note, that excludes Melanie Phillips and The Spectator) that show global temperatures in the MWP were higher than global temperatures recorded in recent decades?
Desert dreams of the solar age 5:43pm on 13 Jul 2009 One problem with concentrated solar thermal power is that the mirrors used to concentrate the Suns rays require regular cleaning to remove the dust particles that inevitably build up and reduce their efficiency. The easiest method of cleaning is to use water. One thing deserts have in abundance is dust, and the thing they lack most is water. Hopefully there is a solution to that one.

As an interesting historical note, it is almost 100 years since someone first proposed using the Qattara Depression to generate hydro-electricity. The Qattara Depression is a vast area of NW Egypt that lies below sea level. It was proposed that a channel or tunnel be built from the Mediterranean Sea to the Qattara, and the resulting water flow used to generate electricity. Because the Qattara is a vast and hot space, the inflowing water would evaporate at a such a rate that the flow from the Mediterranean would be maintained. I believe the project was shelved because of concerns about contamination of groundwater.
G8 climate pact lights up divisions 2:46pm on 13 Jul 2009 #96

I read about it a couple of week ago here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/06/bubkes/

Sounds to me like it was 'covered up' (or more accurately binned) for quality reasons rather than as part of any grand conspiracy.
Does climate cloud the bigger picture? 4:26pm on 06 Jul 2009 I don't disagree that population growth is an issue, but how easy is it to fix?

Western societies have relatively stable populations, whilst most growth is in the world's poorest countries. Poverty and population growth go hand-in-hand, and it isn't difficult to see why. How do you plan your family when:

1 you don't have easy access to contraception, healthcare and health education.
2 you don't know how many of your children will survive to adulthood.
3 the only pension plan available to you is to have as many children as possible and hope that some of them are still around to look after you when you are too old to fend for yourself.

It is only rarely that I hear the word 'poverty' mentioned by those who claim overpopulation is the key issue. They cite the case of China as proof that population growth can be capped, but how many of them would want to live under that kind of the political regime? I hear plenty of complaining about government attempts at curbing on our carbon emissions, generally from the very same people who are quick to advocate state control of family size (usually in some distant and undeveloped lands, never over here). They will happily tell others not to breed, but complain bitterly about a tax on their 4x4. Seems to me that the population issue is very often just a convenient smokescreen for Western over-consumption.

I'm all in favour of controlling population growth, but realistically it can only be achieved through economic development. In the meantime, let's not overlook the environmental problems we are directly responsible for and it is within our means to tackle.

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