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globalrep

Listed below are comments made by globalrep between Tuesday, 17th March 2009 and Tuesday, 20th October 2009.

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A sombre warning 11:08pm on 20 Oct 2009 The current (old version) financial structures are no longer fit for purpose - this was evident from the start of the crisis. Their (the banks etc)sole ambition at present is to recreate the past because that's what they feel comfortable with irrespective of the insult it presents to those they so badly damaged (remember that many will die as a result of the credit crunch, it is not a victimless crime). Intellectually no government is yet ready to make the leap forward in thinking that must inevitably come in stripping out the power of the banks and whilst they dither they inevitably continue to loose the ability to shape the future to the Chinese and the other resurgent economies of the East.Time is now running out. They have perhaps less than 18 months to play with before change will be forced upon them rather than guided by them.A lack of outstanding leadership is perhaps the West's greatest problem. The general public is not impressed !
Should we save building societies? 7:11pm on 12 May 2009 The building society issue is really just a side show as your numbers illustrate. The real joker in the pack is still the amount of derivatives exposure held offshore and out of sight by the main banks which will continue to ooze poison into the global economy over many years.The governments of the UK and USA may feel that a slow drip feed of bad numbers over a long period of time is preferable to a 'big bang' clearance of the toxicity but but I am not convinced. Knowing how large the bad news could be would probably be a good starting point for a rational debate, but keeping us in the dark seems to be the mainstay of the present game plan. I suspect if truth were known the inadequacy of the current solutions would be so stark that confidence would be shattered once and for all.The tax regime needed to pay for this all will mean poverty for generations of the most vulnerable not just in the UK,Europe and the USA but across the globe. Shameful.
Brown's right royal dilemma 7:08pm on 06 May 2009 I can remember several years ago irritating Alan Leighton with a question about how long Royal Mail customers were expected to believe in his jam tommorow presentation at the first major conference that he attended as the organisations chairman. His confident prediction of turning the business around in three years looks now exactly what I thought it was then.Then,as now, the industry was suffering from both a lack of vision and a complete inability of its business leaders to understand the essentials of the business they were running.Couple this with the interference of a government and a government appointed regulator who had even less of a clue and the rest is history.I used to consult in the industry in what turned out to be the good old days. I am glad I left it behind.The fundamentals are so blindingly simple that I can only assume that the wood cannot be seen for the trees. I pity those that work at the delivery end. Such a brilliant capabilty squandered by such shabby leadership.The same problems dog large tracts of UK plc.For those worried by the choice of large tax increases or longer retrirement also factor in higher interest rates and dramatic other reductions in public spending and you will begin to understand the perfect storm we are about to enter that will impoverish the nation for 30 years or more.
The chancellor's Budget dilemma 9:32pm on 20 Apr 2009 It is clear that we have now entered a period of smoke and mirrors as our leaders try and convince us in colusion with the finacial majors that the worst is over and that with a little in the way of austerity measures and belt tightening that all will be well in the not to distant future.In a company any such blatant mis-reporting in the past should and would have normally earnt any director the sack but the current generation of teflon coated superstars seem impervious to any such consequence and expect us instead to marvel at their brilliance. Truth is that things will now worsen over a period of years as profit and revenue generation together with personal incomes struggles to meet the obscene demands of taxation funding required to meet the debt commitments that we have now been blessed with.The working and middle classes can have no idea yet of just how much and for how long they will have to pay and there seems to be a cosy concensus to keep them in the dark about it.The valuation of assets both real and imaginary in the system is still way to high whilst the estimation of liabilities is still way to low.Whilst the rest of the world (except the USA to which we bear an uncanny similarity in avoiding reality) is busy rebuilding for the future until we bottom out our situation the pain will continue to grow. We need to be realistic,open and transparent about the bad news before we can start on the same pathway.I fear our politicians just cannot bring themselves to be honest after so many years of falsehood.
The economic leadership award 8:28pm on 30 Mar 2009 As I said many moons ago on a Peston blog real global leadership was likely to come from China as it quietly took the time to form a world view of the way forward and what a new economic vision might look like rather than (self) indulge in knee jerk and backward looking attempts to revive the dead dog of the worlds previous bubble economy. Taking the long view is essential if the new way forward is to engage all countries and offer real growth opportunities on a sustainable basis whilst hopefully taking note of the ecological essentials as well. For those that feel living standards will be driven down in the USA and UK over the longer term they are wrong. China more than anyone understands the need for a prosperous West to help it continue to grow and achieve the economic supremacy that its natural potential ensures.The new economic order will still have a familiar look and feel to it in many ways but it will inevitably be a lot more demanding and less tolerant of misdemeanor than in the past. Inevitably the consumer will take center stage as the key asset of the Global Republic rather than the much abused bit player of the past.Consumer empowerment based on earnings rather than debt will be the engine of growth.Where and how those earnings are enabled will be a key factor in stimulating global recovery. Game on.
Governor's pointed remarks 8:17pm on 24 Mar 2009 Below is a comment I posted in a different blog yesterday (still no answers as of yet). I would be interested in what you think the answer is Stephanie?
"I have been trying to calculate based on a thirty year repayment term how much the accumulated rescue debt would take every man and woman in the UK to pay back in increased yearly tax payments and have arrived at staggeringly high numbers. I wonder what the government's fiscal projections are in this respect? (acknowledging my own lack of expertise in this area and the very basic assumptions this forced me to make). I also wonder what the public will make of it when the truth finally hits home as to the penury they have been committed to without so much as a by your leave from the government? I sense that the anger will be sustained and problematical. Your own calculations Robert and those of other contributors would be much appreciated as at present the answers I come up with are testing my credulity."
I suspect Mervyn may have a good idea as to what the real answer is and this may be part of his new found vocal opposition to digging the hole deeper.Pity he did not speak up much earlier in the process.It might have saved a lot of people a lot of unnecessary future pain.
Geithner versus Darling 7:03pm on 23 Mar 2009 I have been trying to calculate based on a thirty year repayment term how much the accumulated rescue debt would take every man and woman in the UK to pay back in increased yearly tax payments and have arrived at staggeringly high numbers. I wonder what the government's fiscal projections are in this respect? (acknowledging my own lack of expertise in this area and the very basic assumptions this forced me to make). I also wonder what the public will make of it when the truth finally hits home as to the penury they have been committed to without so much as a by your leave from the government? I sense that the anger will be sustained and problematical. Your own calculations Robert and those of other contributors would be much appreciated as at present the answers I come up with are testing my credulity.
Europe's trouble 8:05pm on 20 Mar 2009 Without a joined up view between the major industrial countries and the buy in of the still emerging countries on the way forward a fragmentation of interests will rapidly spread into short sighted and protectionist measures that will undermine the effectiveness of any stimulus.There can be little doubt that we are still in the knee jerk stage of policy making and that much more time should be taken to align measures and interests in order to ensure buy in across the globe. Of greatest concern is that all that is being proposed at present is aimed at resurrecting a stunted and damaged version of what we had before rather than coming up with a plan for the future that will stand the test of time for the next few decades.No doubt the opportunists are continuing to milk the system for all it is worth as cash is splashed about with almost reckless abandon. This is almost as shameful as the incompetence that got us here in the first place.History will not judge us well as we condemn future generations to servicing the huge debt we are building whilst condemning the worlds poorest to deprivation beyond belief.The judgment will be even harsher if all the money spent still does not produce a result.
Back to the nineteenth century? 10:26pm on 19 Mar 2009 The real issue is that until we stop looking backwards for the solutions and start thinking about what the future could and should look like the commercial,financial and social structures needed to get us there will be beyond the imaginations of our leadership - both at a national and global level.Now is the time to start thinking about those solutions and after a suitable period of reflection the implementation path should be entered into. This will take several years - perhaps ten to fifteen - to eradicate the problems we have created.The trick is not to keep digging the hole deeper in the interim.
FSA's blueprint to make banking safe 10:35pm on 17 Mar 2009 This seems rather premature as what has yet to be clearly seen is just how much more impaired assets are hidden from view in the balance sheets of bank's offshore - and largely hidden - holdings.The full damage of the derivatives that are supposedly hedged in a merry go round of liabilities by insolvent banks and other financial companies that can only now survive through the un-voted for largess of the taxpayer will undoubtedly play out over many months and perhaps years yet.The big question is can this system ever be propped up to the point it can work again and if so at what final cost? If not what new formula of accelerating and underwriting the performance of money (debt) to generate the levels of investment and growth needed for global stability in markets can we rely on? It is this that will require regulation when it emerges. At the moment we are still pursuing the past - and may be wasting vast sums of money going nowhere useful in the process.We know now that what was past practice does not work.Unlikely therefore that anyone will have confidence in it in the future. Time to move on and define what The Global Republic will really look like in terms of method and regulation.

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