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Tigerjayj

Listed below are comments made by Tigerjayj between Friday, 20th November 2009 and Monday, 23rd November 2009.

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Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 01:00am on 23 Nov 2009 Just re-read the NHS Choices leaflet and parts of these blogs.

50 million double doses of vaccine to arrive by December. Also says Pandemrix for children to be given in 2 half doses. Also says over 65's in seasonal flu at risk groups will get the vaccine in first priority group.

By that token and at this time, I would have envisaged a heck of a lot more people would have been vaccinated by now!

Couldn't find Skyline's number crunching-will look tomorrow in more detail as it may have been someone else's.

I just can't make these numbers add up. Sir Liam said a while back that 6.6 million doses had already been delivered and by the end of October all surgeries would have their initial 500. More would follow. This suggests all at risk patients in the first priority group should theoretically be vaccinated already, or at least contacted with an appointment.

Seemingly this is not the case.

Ok, rant over! Off to sleep now!
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 00:38am on 23 Nov 2009 I'm going to look through some of Skyline's previous posts-I'm sure he did some sort of number crunching on this when he analysed why GP surgeries only had 500 doses each. I have a vague recollection of a comment from him along the lines of 'seems about right to me'.

However, if I assume there are 8,500 GP surgeries with 500 doses of vaccine, that makes 4.25 million doses across England-not quite a third of the 15 million needed. But that does assume that the high risk group does not include health workers, or people who have been vaccinated at work nor people who have declined a vaccination.

So obviously this is a worst case scenario. But even so, it's an alarming prospect that 6 million doses alone are needed for children. Like Angel and others have said, I can't see children getting vaccinated for quit some time.

As I said before, all the lists in the world are not worth the paper they're written on if there isn't enough vaccine around to fulfil them. A bit like knowing the recipe you really want to make, but not having all the ingredients you need to make it.

Forget trying to scare everyone with stories about mutations and resistant SF-this vaccination story is more than sufficient for us to worry about.

C'mon Fergus-do your stuff-get the answers to these vaccine questions as soon as you can-your bloggers need you!!!!
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 00:18am on 23 Nov 2009 Questions-thanks everso for that.

Well, that says 15 million doses required for current high priority group and children.

That's half of what's ordered-assuming every eligible adult and child take the opportunity. I am now asking myself more questions like:

How much has been delivered so far?

How much used for health workers?

How many high priority patients have been vaccinated so far?

How many of the vaccinated health workers were also part of the first high priority group? And how many pregnant women were like the wife of that gentleman who was told being a pregnant nurse she had to get her vaccination at her GP, only to be told she wasn't able to get it yet (if I remember correctly?).

The more I unpick this topic, the more unlikely it seems that 15 million doses of vaccine will be given by Christmas!

What a fiasco! You couldn't make it up, could you!
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 00:04am on 23 Nov 2009 Love the Gaia thoughts! Many years ago we performed a modern work for choir and orcestra called 'Cry Of The Earth' by a guy called Tony Biggin. This tells of the anguish of Gaia at all that is happening to her. It is an amazingly moving work-incredibly powerful stuff with both the words and music conveying the story - it made me cry more than once.

If it's your sort of thing, I highly recommend it-the composer has his own site and it may be possible to still purchase the CD. You don't have to be a music buff to appreciate it either!

Regarding an individual's qualifications-some less reputable people can create a whole history around themselves on the internet-i would urge caution in accepting qualifications at face value unless there are dissertations/theses published, quoted comments and articles in reputable journals. However, I'm sure Universities are monitoring these people carefully, and should the Uni's reputation seem to be brought into disrepute they will make sure everyone knows about it!

Btw, wonder if Granny is ok? She's dropped off the radar again.
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 2:09pm on 22 Nov 2009 Angel, try not to get spooked by Define's link-I've read through it a few times, and it really is just someone's point of view-nothing more. Effectively a veiled suggestion that the WHO were keeping info from us. I know their annoyncements have a time delay, I imagine this is purely because of the need to be certain of facts. Read all the info on the WHO site-they are monitoring things very closely, and I'm absolutely certain that if the situation worsens they will let the world know.

The person writing in the blog may well be a doctor, but they are also normal people with a right to their own opinion. Take it or leave it as you do the opinions of others on here.

Ultimately, we cannot keep running 'what ifs' in our heads, we can only deal with the 'what is' when it happens. I know HA is a dreadful condition but you and others are amazing in the way you cope. I'm not sure I could and admire you all greatly.
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 12:56pm on 22 Nov 2009 Ryan, those graphs are interesting. I am assuming the red line is SF infections and the grey line a regular flu season? If that is the case, then I can see where you're coming from. However, it could just mean that the absence of a soaring red line for England means that we're trotting along ok. With the vaccination programme underway (albeit very slowly) and herd immunity developing, this red line may well stay as it is or even drop.

If the red line is the mortality rate then we're obviously very lucky and I can only assume this has to do with free medical care and hence early intervention.

I have never been to the Ukraine, so I cannot say what their living conditions, health care and general diet are like. However, many of the severe SF cases with pneumonia complications are in isolated (and I guess hard to reach) places. I would imagine this means that people living there would be less able to access good quality medical care, and possibly have to pay for it. The advice on the WHO website re the Ukranian situation states that the current SF vaccines are still effective against it, even if there is a slight mutation.

I have to stress again, we need faster supply of this vaccine and faster distribution of it to get the vaccination programmes around the world moving full steam ahead. There have been no announcements/press releases about the lack of supply to meet demand. I really am beginning to think that the Pharmaceutical companies had inadequate pandemic action plans in place. It's high time they were taken to task over this. The only other reason I can think of is the money these vaccines cost. I know enough for half the population was ordered, but wasn't that when 2 doses were expected to be needed? If we had that amount, then with one dose only needed for most now, nearly everyone in the country would be vaccinated. Without laboratory testing, the numbers are totally unreliable, so most people would need to be vaccinated. The longer the delay, the greater the speculation will be-I really would like to see some sort of official statement about this!

With the current weekly increases in hospitalisations and ICU patients (especially paediatric patients), the longer the vaccines take to arrive, the greater the strain on these vital, life saving resources.

IMHO, vaccine availability, ICU's and PICU's are the most pressing concerns right now. This worries me more than what is happening around the world. Governments are moaning about lack of vaccine supply, but there is a deafening silence about why this is and when this will be sorted out.
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 3:18pm on 21 Nov 2009 Wow! Some really interesting stuff here - thanks everyone! That's why I love this blog - lots of fascinating information appears from other people's conscientious research.

I'm not sure that the 'black lung' issue is anything we need to worry about - with the amount of SF around the world something as significant as this would surely have reared it's ugly head before now?

I also agree that the regular SF virus doing the rounds is so effective at onward transmission it is highly unlikely that the Tamiflu resistant strain will get a hold. Is it possible that the resistant type can only get a hold in immuno suppressed patients, where regular immune systems can fight it off? If this is the case, then most people have absolutely no need to worry about it. Not to mention the fact that Relenza is available should it be required.

For interest I'm looking at the links posted and other things on the net, but for definitive information I'm sticking with WHO and the BBC (not to mention Skyline and others with much more knowledge of such things).

I don't want to get SF, I want to be vaccinated asap, but I'm not frightened by all these weird and wonderful stories from around the world.

One other thing that I do keep in mind is how different nations are having different experiences of SF. What happens in the Ukraine, Poland, Russia, and even the US are different to the way SF is manifesting itself here. I'm sure we will hear very quickly if anything changes.

I just wish the supplies of vaccine were arriving more quickly at local surgeries. This is surely more important? Fergus, any chance of chasing this one?
Person-to-person spread of Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu 03:33am on 21 Nov 2009 Aminti-interesting question re immunity. My immunologist thinks I may have a specific type of immune deficiency-the acid test for which is vaccination for Bacteria Pnemococcus (or something like that-no good with fancy medical names!). If I have this vaccination, the antibodies I produce will be significantly less than the amount needed to induce a reasonable level of immunity. However, that doesn't mean this is true for all vaccinations, nor all immuno deficiencies.

I have a problem understanding this tamiflu resistant strain of SF. It develops in immuno compromised patients - I get that....but why? Does the virus go more beserk in such cases or something? What is causing this to only to develop in immuno compromised patients, and not folk with immune systems firing cannons, not corks?

The patients involved were all immuno compromised. I've heard nothing about this resistant type of flu appearing for people without this problem. If it could spread that easily, then surely more people wouldn't find tamiflu worked?

What if there was a Typhoid Mary in the hospital-a carrier of this particular strain? If so, I'm sure more people would have caught it? Of course, many people may have, but not bothered with Tamiflu having recovered very quickly on their own. Not everyone is tested, but it stands to reason that these very poorly people are having their blood tested very frequently, so it would show up.

If this is in wider circulation then I have no doubt that many people have just not been picked up as having it.

Also, once you've had the vaccination and developed antibodies, I would imagine it would still be possible to pass SF on to people. Not to mention that as the families of at risk patients won't be anywhere near the top of the priority pile yet, it would be extremely easy to pass SF on.

I guess the question really is whether the resistant SF developed it's resistance once the first patient caught it, or did arrive already mutated? As if these terribly sick people didn't have enough to worry about!

Sorry, just thinking out loud-rambling random thoughts again-I blame the antibiotics!
Under-fives to be offered swine flu vaccine 02:58am on 21 Nov 2009 Aminti-bloomin brilliant! Thank you so much for cheering me up!
Under-fives to be offered swine flu vaccine 2:18pm on 20 Nov 2009 On a different note - I have given up struggling on blindly trying to deal with this bug. The doctor has now put me on antibiotics because I have a nasty chest infection (probably why even my inhaler wasn't helping, nor my temp coming down as you would expect after a few days of a virus).

I definitely don't have SF, but my health issues have made a normal cold very nasty for me. I will not pass up the vaccination except for one reason, and one reason only....

If it means a child can be vaccinated first instead of me, that is far more important. Equally, if it was a choice between me or my daughter or son, the same would apply.

Honestly, if I was expecting, I would jump at the chance to be vaccinated. Being ill when you're expecting is absolutely rotten. There is very little you can take, and coughing is a nightmare when you are heavily pregnant.

How strange we are.........just over a month ago I was on the fence and dithering over the vaccination. Shall I/Shan't I vanished when I saw how ill my hubbie and Mum were with it. The information and support I received on this blog really helped me make the right choices to help them both, and to keep things in perspective. I was informed, therefore I was aware of what to look for, when to act etc.

Thank you everyone!

(PS - I don't work for the government or any other 'interested party' - This is purely my own personal perspective - just in case one or two cynical posters may wonder at my desire to be vaccinated!!!)

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