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Siberianwinter

Listed below are comments made by Siberianwinter between Sunday, 8th February 2009 and Friday, 7th August 2009.

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Gray report: Slides 5:35pm on 07 Aug 2009 Apologies and condolonces....I was reminded that Sybil the latest Downing Street mouser died 6 days ago following a short illness.

Hers was but a brief stay in residence (2007-2009) but strangely reminiscent of other female whose shadows have crossed that hallowed portal.

Surely Ms Harman's plea for more females to take up top jobs in government has been misunderstood.....it was simply a request for a replacement cat. Did our vile and venal press, devoid of summer column fillers get it so wrong?

Or is the truth really that Sybil, like the rats leaving the sinking ship, has passed away in timely fashion...I'll let you decide.
Gray report: Slides 5:20pm on 07 Aug 2009 I have been (in dark distant days..)very much part of planning and procuring for major MoD projects ...RMPA and Apache helicopter training facility amongst them.

I have also worked for building contractor who built the dry docks at Faslane to accomodate the current Nuclear fleet.( Did that additional hull design change really add £35 million to the build cost??)

My observations are
1. Our armed services are desperately in need of kit that performs to specification when it reaches them
2. They are should remain our priority in any defence spending review
3. Let's go back to a single procurement model to ensure inter-operability
4. Stop spending money on developing new solutions when exisiting technologies can and do fit the bill. ( Sikorsky helicopters..prime example). Makes battlefield integration with our NATO partners far simpler??!!
5. British jobs are not sustainable if the defence industry can't maintain a technology lead. The MoD has allowed itself to become a bloated (poorly performing) management organsation that pays current defence contractors for their errors and omissions.Where else could that be acceptable...ooops!!! silly me..we let the bankers do the same thing!!
6. Lets lose two levels of senior management in the MoD...replace them with a group of civillian and services personnel with the power to specify and contract with industry to deliver modern equipment, fit for purpose and able to give our frontline troops the means to take real advantage
7. ..and finally, lets plan our defence priorities for a 60 year period and commit to a realistic defency strategy that can be properly supported.

Defence , like education, health, transport and housing needs a clear long term plan for the future which is agreed by all parties and not subect to political gamesmanship everytime a sound bite is needed or the incumbent party is losing in the poles.

In this way, our key spending will deliver real and lasting results. industry will be able to build sustainable capacity to meed future needs and most of all, we will leave an effective legacy for future generations.
Business still being crunched by banks 4:01pm on 24 Jul 2009 As someone who was made bankrupt last year as a result of Bank of Scotland pulling the plug on its property sector exposure, I am not sure what I want the banks to be doing. Preferably, lending less but with more certainty of building and retaining clear sector exposure. I appreciate this may not help all businesses right now but as other commentators have reiterated we all of us have become dependant on a level of debt that is unsustainable.

My worry is that the banks return to profits will be at the expense of the old gimmick of writing down as many loans as is possible that may appear bad, and reaping the benefit of securing full recovery. Such income is a false measure but one which has massively improved their performance in past recessions.

Such write downs affect their lending to different sectors and should be looked at in much more detail by regulators. I think it important that they adhere to a common standard. If this were applied to all banks, it may reduce the negative impact on businesses by forcing banks to be more optimistic about future performance of loan portfolios.

It may well be argued that the tax payers will benefit in the medium term if this is left unchanged;higher share prices relate to greater public dividend. My guess is that the short term consequence of individual companies and whole sectors suffering an undue restriction in availability of debt is of far greater cost to the taxpayer.

I wonder if it isn't time for a new bank for enterprise that is focused on expansion of industry and not of bankers/shareholders wallets. A state controlled bank that links credit availability to economic growth and skills is not new....but it is about time the UK did something really different and actually put it into practice!!
Time Please! 11:46pm on 10 Mar 2009 Almost sounds like there is a need to extend the alloted broadcast slot to an hour. I enjoy Working Lunch far more than other midday offerings. The 'something for everyone' approach and the range of guests makes it a a pleasant way to spend an all too short 30 minutes, whilst eating lunch.

Perhaps there is less of a need to rein Declan in and more of a need to dig a little deeper for some of those answers!

I was very amused to hear that the man from Cadbury's came bearing gifts last week. Will Declan waistline ever recover from those little samples.

Naga and Declan keep up the good work !!
Will viewers choose their own running order? 11:33pm on 10 Mar 2009 My only concern is that the development of IPTV is inherently constrained by available bandwith to the viewer. I am assuming that a highspeed broadband connection is a conditional requirement to recieve IPTV services.

I know that BT has been given the go ahead for planned investment in high speed fibre optic network but this is still someway off. My current fixed line capacity is only 1.5 Meg because of the distance we live away from the exchange.

I can only foresee a deeper division between the information rich/poor driven by lack of infrastructure. This may not rest easily with all licence payers.
Matching jobs to the jobless 11:09pm on 10 Mar 2009 There is always a disparity between the range of vacancies and the number of unemployed able to fill them.

The thing to remember is that the number of JSA claimants include those termed as 'hard to help'. Typicall with chronic drug or alcohol abuse problems or other health issues that in themselves does not qualify the individual for sickness or incapacity benefits.

There is then a group who, like me, need to achieve a minimum salary level in order to make it practical and sensible to come back into full time employment. This is not an excuse but a practical reality. The difference in benefits and additional help if returning to work would require a minimum salary of at least £30k a year before tax to ensure that we are no worse off than we are currently. That may seem a lot to some ppl but at 50 years of age and facing having to rebuild pension etc it doesn't go far.

I figure that the overall spread of vacancies means that salary levels as an average fall well below this figure thus making it more difficult for those with family and financial commitments to make a downward transition.

For the record I am returning to self employment through the new deal scheme, which makes a lot more sense. It is only a shame that this opportunity is not made available at a much earlier point in the process. Aside from getting those who could be productive for the economy into work more quickly, there is a likelyhood of creating further employment opportunities
The cost of taking over the banks 4:44pm on 23 Feb 2009 Which is the more believable .... a banker who is willing to forgo a bonus or that Elvis is alive and well?

When you can anwer that question then you will be a man my son and lead us into a new world.

Until then, seek no other truth than that which you need to give you certainty that a better future exists...even if for some that is all tweed suits and Austin sevens!!
The cost of taking over the banks 7:41pm on 19 Feb 2009 Great blog Stephanie, cool, calm and dispassionate but so insightful!!

So the picture is bleaker still than anyone had first imagined. The reality is that UK PlC is not alone in being financially bust. Global PLC is in a collective state of recievership.

There will not be any quick fixes; the prospect of our childrens children will still be paying for the mistakes of our profligacy looms very large!

But we have to start somewhere and that is now. Structural changes to the global economy will be needed. Exisiting financial institutions will have to respond to those changes and in turn will reform themselves.

If this is going to work it must be built around consistent regulation and greater interaction between Governments and Market regulators. Better then that time and great care is taken to avoid the problems that brought about the current crisis.

That regulation needs to address the 'exporting' of Investments that have as their basis a fundamental asset class that could allow a downturn in underlying asset values to spread like contagen to other economies.

I was never comfortable with the idea that banks could or should be providing residential mortgages. Mutual Societies have a recognised place and serve the shareholders well. A return to makret segmentation in this form is a prerequisite and the UK government is well placed to make this happen through its ownership of RBS/Northern Rock/LLoyds Banking Group.

If the price of this is reduced competition and choice then perhaps 'less is more'. Retail banks need to reduce the scale of their operations and thus focus back on deposit taking and SME business banking. Getting back in touch with real customers and understanding real needs may just make them better.

Investment banking has a role but it is primarily that of serving global trade and providing the Investment community with the tools and products to facilitate growth in capital. I am sure I am not alone in questioning the wisdom of an investment bank selling CDO' s to a pension fund that has as its security a house owned by the very workers whose pension funds they manage?

If we are to secure the real benefit of any future prosperity then let it be on safe terms, where caution wins out over hubris and performance driven cultures
Two big messages from the Geithner plan 6:26pm on 11 Feb 2009 I haevn't read all of the comments so excuse me if this in part is repetitive.
I think that the current problem of how to value so called 'toxic' assets is the major stumbling block to quantifying the true extent of detiorating bank balance sheets and ergo, assessing the level of capital that needs to be provided to strengthen balance sheets.

From a pure finance perspective the toxic assets consist of an underlying asset, an expected cashflow and a borrower to whom the loan was advanced.

Since in most cases the expected cashflow is the known value then it would be more practical to look at the value of the expected receipts and the ability of the borrower to meet all or part of that obligation.

This would assume a nil value to the underlying asset. The issue is then the current position of the original borrower to repay the debt and /or the ability of any investor guarantee to be called on.

In the case of mortgage backed securities, both UK and US governments should consider acquiring the underlyingassets at nil value and apply a discount factor to the expected cashflow in order to arrive at a natural 'transfer' price.

Since the Government has a wider 'economic interest', it could reflect the potential cost of alternate housing provision and consequent cost to treasury of welfare payments in arriving at its discount factor.

Property assets acquired could then be released for social housing or where owners are still in occupation, they are transferred to a social landlord for management etc.

Thus, the banks receive a fresh capital injection, free of these 'toxic' loans. There would be a consequent increase in social housing stock at a price that would not be attained in normal markets, with the surety that individuals otherwise made or potentially at risk of becoming homeless can be re housed.

The additional factor of fewer properties being sold at auction and thus minimising the downard price pressure on existing real estate stock would go a long way to stemming the potential of further degrading mortgage loan books.

In respect of commercial loans, the same is true. Apply a discount factor to the loan derived from the value of outstanding recievables against the existence of and ability of the business to meet the loan. Economic support for SME sector business would come via the valuation of the loan and an easing of the threat of banks forclosing, as the tighten their lending position.

If the effect is to give the banks 50 cents on the$ then this is a fair trade for keeping people and business going. What is then required is an asset management and recovery business which could attract private capital as a viable long term solution.
Should Lloyds pay a bonus? 03:13am on 08 Feb 2009 One other suggestion...any banker who wants to earn a bonus in future must prove that they have helped 5 customers a day and lent to at least three new pppl in any week. All this must be documented including 'Happy Sheets' to record customer satisfaction. When they hit their weekly/monthly quota then they get paid, otherwise they get a minimum amount, in line with civil service pay scales.

See how quick that will get the banks lending again and restoring public confidence!!

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