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e2toe4

Listed below are comments made by e2toe4 between Monday, 31st August 2009 and Friday, 27th November 2009.

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Dubai: Just a sideshow? 7:43pm on 27 Nov 2009 It IS a really naive intro--- in this 'new age' anyway. Whatever else we have learnt over the last 2 years is that there is no such thing as smart money, anymore.

It's a phrase that shows how much things have changed--- just like the shock to deference delivered by the First World war ---the last two years have delivered a fundamental change to perceptions and there is no going back.

There are no 'smart money people' just greedy people --- some may be lucky; and some like old Madoff and the Maktoums aren't lucky any more--but none of them are smart.
British banks and Dubai 6:29pm on 27 Nov 2009 I do appreciate the arguments about Abu Dhabi standing behind Dubai and paying these debts.... but they didn't, did they? Or we wouldn't have heard about this.

Plenty of time must have been spent by the Bankers , Lawyers and investors on this and all that seemed to have been achieved is the non-agreement, or decision to NOT pay; was choreographed to co-incide with long holidays in the Islamic world (presumably to allow even more time to seek an agreement-lets hope they find one)

And to the list of heavily indebted countries above we can add the USA as well can't we?
Dubai not too big to fail? 6:42pm on 26 Nov 2009 The whole story since 2007 has been about 'confidence'--- and attempts to bolster it by the statements, the actions and the hidden actions (one being the £60Billion secret loan to Banks by the Government).

One can see why so much effort is put into re-assurance and highlighting 'Green shoots' simply to try and bolster 'confidence'.

But as in every walk of life, confidence is best engendered by honesty, and by taking action to rectify a bad situation---not by expending effort and brainpower on finding ways to tell people that things are not actually as bad as they may appear.

The sense of denial in our country, and the USA,about the situation acts to undermine the attempts to bolster confidence and leaves the situation fragile---- so external shocks like this Dubai news break through the fragile consensus.

We all know that our government should have taken tough decisions 6 months ago, but we have been stuck in a kind of frozen immobility waiting for an election----the 'tough action' taken has basically been to do nothing more than issue pretend money in the form of Quantative easing.

Everyone knows that it isn't QE that has supported equity markets, as we are often told, but the plain fact that all other interest on deposit is so low that it's now negative----so people put their cash into equities, it's a simple as that. This isn't another bubble forming...it's the same bubble that is trying to be maintained by ever 'cheaper' money.

Because a Dubai default will inevitably throw a light on the UK and USA's own sovereign debt (though the actual situation is very different) there will right now be now much effort going on to 'find a solution' ...ie pressurise other Arab states to pay the bills--- which isn't a solution to the problem of course---just a solution to yet another symptom.
The economist's new clothes 11:50pm on 03 Nov 2009 Everybody knows what everybody knows.....the problem hasn't been the changes in society or business...or whatever...it's almost always the velocity of the change.

A lot of economic theorising and discussion (and general history ) for that matter seems to just ignore, or miss, the significance of the velocity when discussing change.

Most of the people alive in London in 1909 are now dead.

Most of the people alive right now will be dead by 2109.

Neither of these facts are causes for worry, tragedy or even much comment.

But if the prediction is altered to one that half the same number of deaths mentioned above will actually take place in the period 2015 to 2020 with the rest then occur over the remaining 90 years ...not only would it indeed be a subject of worry, tragedy and comment----but the end result by 2010 would also be different.

The velocity of this change would in itself alter many factual outcomes (lots of people dying in a very short time would dislocate the economy massively and possibly thereby cause even more deaths --- the overall population would be smaller because, of course, so many possible members would never be born as their forebearers were never themselves born)------

I think it's this accelerating avalanche of events that has left the 'system' almost paralysed and meant the levers pulled simply wobble unconnected to anything that can affect the real world.

This isn't only a problem of 'economic theory' or analysis, it's a problem of, for instance, 'managing immigration' as well; where 600,000 Eastern European economic migrants isn't of itself a bad things, and may be a very good thing; or, to give another instance, the problem of moving from a society based on the 'conventional family' (I know.... define that term) to one where that is no longer the basis of society.

In these, as in the basic topic on this discussion board; Economics ---- it isn't the change itself that's ever the problem---- it's the velocity, stupid!
Why them and not us? 5:30pm on 23 Oct 2009 The 'surprise' at the GDP figures disappointing just isn't surprising for everyone I have spoken to today across the business world up here in the North----- right now everyone feels there is an avalanche of job losses to come as decent small businesses trying to 'last out' this recession just have to give up the ghost...and start making redundancies.

I can remember the stop-go, IMF, seventies that ended up in the car crash of the winter of discontent and for ages now it just seems this is going to be much, much worse but in Londonland we're apparently permanently on the cusp of not-quite-but-nearly-business as usual...

It's this disconnect between the real-world monthly cashflow figures that really isn't recovering. and the continuing refrain of "it's nearly over and we just about got away with it" coming from London that is dispiriting..... it's as if there is real world that just doesn't count and a media/political/big business-chummy one in London that is all that matters....
A sombre warning 10:38pm on 20 Oct 2009 Its wearying to have to wait for the people in power to just catch up with common sense.

Creating fake money that Bankers recycle into huge bonuses built on a foundation of fresh air---even Goldman would be bust if the taxpayer hadn't stopped BoF,Morgan Stanley, Lloyds, RBs, HBOS from collapsing--- is ' a delusion'---oh! really?

Personally, I wouldn't bother with regulation finely constructed: The Americans always cuff up one or two 'pour encuorager les autres'---it's a complicated situation, so cuffing up a couple of prominent bonus gatherers, and getting the Police PR dept to invite along a few web-video and stills camermen while investigations continue-- may well do more to acheive the desired end, than the next 24 months of aimless musing on possible regulation ...
Pause for thought 11:09am on 17 Oct 2009 The one line in all the contributions that stands out for me in the above was #19 Stanilic's last one; ".......it's all wrong....."

I do agree there is a tidal wave of redundancies about to break as companies that have 'held on' simply no longer can---the first wave were those that were stupidly over-borrowed and had to panic, now the larger number of companies (mainly SMEs) who weren't over borrowed, or even 'borrowed' at all, are finding that the desire to hang onto staff, many of whom are friends as much as colleagues is impossible to sustain.

These companies run down reserves, freeze wages for all (including the management) and reduce wages for all for as long as they can---but that period has elapsed.

From the collapse of Northern Rock two years ago the real issues have never been addressed, and the time has been wasted really---- that we are doing nothing, and have done nothing this year while the incumbent government waits like Mr Micawber for something to turn up before the election deadline arrives has simply stored up more trouble, hardship and real anguish and postponed for many years the proper reolution of all this.

I chose the line at the beginning with purpose... economics and 'the efficiency of the markets' have come to stand for concepts such as the 'right thing to do---whether it's difficult or not'--- all the 'rules' of the market are framed for them, and ultimately from some sort of over arching idea of a moral system, with clear ethical rules.

But for over half a century or more the stability of that underlying system of agreed values, has been eroded, taken for granted and degraded.

That's why we arrive at a situation such as now, where the future of our children's lives are being set in a squalid moment in history where the real issues are being wilfully ignored.... I do feel it's a thread that connects the bonuses paid by Goldman Sachs and the MPs expenses; that lack of a basic moral compass to realise when something may well be justifiable 'within the rules' but is simply, as Stanilic has it; 'wrong'.
The political detail 11:12pm on 15 Sep 2009 I suspect that not only are they not talking about what the cuts will be and when but (because they fear leaks about these cuts) there is very little real planning actually going on.

I hope not, but it seems as if there is a langour and inertia at the very top and an almost pitiful reliance on spin and news management techniques but no real managing direction.

The pathetic 'sunday deniable leak' this week about possible taxes on bikes... typifies the malaise. Rubbishy, unjoined up thinking....while things continue to slide and slip away.

The way the bankers slip back into their bonuses despite the ineffectual hand wringing of politicians is another symptom of the pervading atmosphere of directionless drift.

Really it isn't more 'ideas' we need ..there seems to be three new ideas and half a dozen initiatives, plans, analyses every day...it's just a sensible, sober implementation of idea...
Hester: fast recovery "dangerous" 9:59pm on 12 Sep 2009 I think Stephen Hester's remuneration package disqualifies him from commenting or offering suggestions...he and the other 'Back to business as usual' people in the Banking Ivory towers are the problem...not the solution.

WE all know that the 'patient' isn't recovering simply because the fever has abated.... the next crisis will hit a weakened patient... so why are the government reapplying the same conditions that caused the collapse in the first place.

That question is asked over and over on blogs like this but gets no answer... it's horrible waiting for the thing to play itself out now.
What future for media and journalism? 9:51pm on 31 Aug 2009 Re 99 Virtualsilverlady You are right in that one of the effects of the Credit Crunch is a loss of authority by all commentators ... They didn't see it coming at all...we all know that (despite the odd archeological dig to find random phrases suggesting otherwise)

The city and the city journalists are already flagging their self-created trading boom and some poor people suckered into mortgages based on 0.5% bank lending rates as evidence that 'it's over' and everything is allright.

Well... maybe it is.... but then again, maybe it isn't...

But on the main issue ... 'paid for v 'free' obviously we all want free.... and good quality free at that..... the problem is that free means govt funded...the licence fee ultimately is govt funded...the new PA/Local papers subsidy to 'cover' local councils will be govt funded

That's okay as long as everyone realises it and some sort of alternative remains to keep it honest...OR, the 'govt funded' model is truly controlled by the people who elect the govt and not a small metropolitan elite who feel THEY know better than the people who elected the govt.... and so should control the media.

The death of Dr Kelly ought to have been more difficult for the govt in a number of ways... but it wasn't as the argument became deflected into one of BBC method--which the BBC may have been able to ignore except for that nagging licence review ..... controlled by the govt.

So a 'better' run BBC....and the balance to be maintained between 'paid for' and 'publically provided free'.

Sometimes the paid for barbarians threaten to run riot, or, as now, the cosily protected 'publically funded model' rises....but it isn;t the always slightly etiolated of top down 'we know what's best' journalism we need, over those racuous types in ad-funded or paid for journalism.... it's the balance between the two that's improtant.

Until they sort it ---- read Robert P, or Nouriel Rubini or listen to Vince Cable on their blogs..... what we shouldn't NECASSARILY need are commentators (unless we choose them) because the source material is so easy to get on the web....the web really does THAT very well.

(Now old Vince may decide to micro-charge 5p a go.... or parliament could run a not-for-profit website of blogs....and charge 5p a go or £20 for 300 credits or whatever...maybe people would pay that and not pay newspapers....or TV channels or radio stations .... who knows)

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