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MarkfromOxford

Listed below are comments made by MarkfromOxford between Monday, 20th October 2008 and Wednesday, 5th November 2008.

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Stretching America 2:57pm on 05 Nov 2008 Ed, 80, Sam, British et al:

I rest content :)
Obama in enemy territory 10:47pm on 31 Oct 2008 89, 94 Aqua

I wish, in fact, Obama had said more about environmental projects in the western states, and more about rail in Virginia and North Carolina: it is a way of keeping all of them blue. I wish you the best of luck come Tuesday, and I hope Obama has a rally in Tuscon come Sunday :)
Obama in enemy territory 9:09pm on 31 Oct 2008 60: 80%

I' d love to think Montana will swing: what I don't yet get is why. In states like Arizona, Mississippi, Lousiana and Georgia I can see why the polls are under-sampling specific groups and the potential consequences. On the other hand, maybe in Montana it will just be a matter of being out of love: Palin may simply convince some republicans to stay at home ... I hope so :)
Obama in enemy territory 7:35pm on 31 Oct 2008 No, it's not arrogance; it is political aggression that is perfectly calculated: at the very least, it puts down a deposit for swinging Arizona in 2012; at best, it is the final coup de grace that sends the Republicans into 20 years of self-destruction and self-analysis. Arrogance would be putting Texas into play (at least this time; next time the election will be fought there).

The two polls for Arizona today have McCain 48 Obama 47 (Daily Kos/Research 2000) and McCain 50 Obama 46 (ARG). The average of those two is McCain 49 Obama 46.5 with the difference of 2.5% being within the margin of error. Of the Kos poll, the sampling for Hispanics was 19%, whereas they are closer to 30% of the population and they support Obama 68-24. If these polls are undersampling Hispanic voters, then the result would be the other way round. For that reason alone, I genuinely hope that Obama holds a major rally in Arizona on Sunday. Apparently McCain will campaign in his own state Monday and is running Robocalls.

For what it is worth, my view is that the election will fall out as follows. Obama keeps the Kerry states. He wins Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada clearly. The big surprises are Mississippi and Louisiana which are 34 and 36% African American respectively and which may have an 80%+ turnout for that group voting 90-95% Obama, leaving McCain having to win 80% of the rest of the electorate. McCain keeps West Virginia and scrapes home in Montana. The four knife-edge states are North Dakota, Indiana, Arizona and Texas (the last again because of the combined Hispanic-African American vote), of which either North Dakota or Arizona, or possibly both, fall to Obama. The 2012 election is then fought entirely on present 'Republican' ground.
Reagan, Clinton, W, and Obama 5:29pm on 27 Oct 2008 Ed, 80, Brit

Just dropping by to say hi ... I'm sitting here reading More's Utopia, and glancing at the FT online ;)
Unhelpful messages 00:38am on 25 Oct 2008 Sam and Ed

Just back from the pub and enjoying a very nice South Australian Shiraz ...

as for 48 Sam ...

Glad you agree, although from Manchester Katie is better qualified by far to be VP rather than Sarah Palin... genuinely 'hot', intelligent, fun ... I'd like her to do the inauguration with his Bobness :)
Unhelpful messages 5:34pm on 24 Oct 2008 15

He not only needs momentum but viagra ... ;)

8

Sam, a few days ago I confused your love of Michelle with Ed's fulsome defence and suggested that he watched a youtube clip of the Ting Tings for a little light relief ... so my apologies to Ed, but Sam it's something I'm sure you would enjoy ... ;)

And Justin, I'm sure Obama will come back to the economy ... another chunk was shaved off the markets today and everyday that happens McCain sinks another point or two ...
Why poll numbers vary 3:16pm on 24 Oct 2008 220

Thanks for being the only one who noticed that I said something more to the point of the lead than most ...

Another question you might ask yourself is why do so many poor white voters identify with a party that oppresses them ... this is one of the true oddities of American politics.

Sure, you might see that the African American vote is racially orientated, but that group has alweays voted predominantly Democrat since Civil Rights (another story is how the Republicans lost the African American vote ... after all the republicans were once the party of Lincoln): the difference I would put to you is not temperament or race as such ... most African American's hace genuine socio-economic reasons for voting Democrat ... the difference this time will be turnout, which will all but double because they have a candidate they believe in.

What Obama has succeeded in doing is peeling away those who suffer through times of economic downturn from the Republicans and hehas recreated a link between the liberal rich and the conservative poor: that is why McCain will lose so heavily.
Why poll numbers vary 10:58am on 24 Oct 2008 A slew of polls out yesterday ought to be causing McCain alarm, not so much at the national level, but at the state level. I suspect that McCain's support is holding at the national level because of those interior states like Oklahoma where he is up by an average of 28%. McCain's problem, however, is that he doesn't need more votes in Idaho, Utah, or Oklahoma; he needs them in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, and there the news is bad.

The last two polls in Ohio have Obama up by 11.5% (Big Ten) and 14% (Quinnipiac with a large sample of 1360). In Pennsylvania, Obama has been scoring consistent double digit leads and 538 has a likely victory margin of 10.7%. In Florida it is closer and a couple of recent polls have put McCain up by 1%, but the rest have Obama by 5% or so and latest Miama Herald has him at 7%.

Perhaps as troubling for McCain is that Georgia is now down to 4-5%, and Texas has narrowed sharply from 16 to 10%. In fact the best thing that could happen to the Republican party is if they lost Texas because it would force the kind of soul-searching that would put the evangelical rump in its place.

Most pollsters are assuming a high turnout of 65%, but my feeling is that it may be over 70% and that will be because three under-represented groups in most elections are likely to vote heavily.

First, turnout amongst African-Americans could get as high as 80% and that will have a big effect, not only in States like Virginia and North Carolina, but in Georgia and Texas. There are many touching stories coming from the polls of things like an 86 year old woman voting for the first time; or a 90 year old with four generations of her family breaking down and weeping uncontrollably because she never believed she would have a chance to vote for someone like Obama. There are going to be a lot more stories like this in the coming days.

Second, for the first time since the 60s, young people are going to go out and vote and vote against war: old men get countries into wars, young people have to fight them. McCain is perceived by the young as someone who likes war, and they are tired or afraid of being asked to make the sacrifice. They are also furious at old men running up debts that the young will have to pay and the person seen as responsible for those debts is Bush because of the war and his economic policies: McCain is tarred with that brush.

Third, the hispanic community, while more diverse, is consolidating behind Obama and his support amongst them is probably niow in excess of 70%. Once again, they are likely to vote heavily, and that is bad news for McCain in states like Colorado. In Nevada, registered Democrats have asked for twice as many early ballots as Republicans; last time the early requests leaned Republican.

In fact, early voting is what may finally lift turnout beyond 70%. This time more states are offering it as an alternative, and the demand is much greater than previously. What the final impact of it will be is as yet uncertain, but the chances are that it will tip towards Obama and reinforce his lead. In the last two elections I had a gut churning moment about two weeks out where I realised that Gore and Kerry were losing the race; this time I suspect the question is not whether he will win, but how devastating and complete Obama's victory will be.
Palin disaster, Powell endorsement 08:55am on 20 Oct 2008 I doubt very much that Ohio and Florida have that much of a necessary bearing on the final outcome. Obama will win the Kerry states (he is ahead in all of them comfortably, including Pennsylvania), and he will win Iowa. That gives him a base of 262. After that, he can win either Virginia, or Colorado, or New Mexico and Nevada. In fact, he will probably win all of them. Anything else is a luxury. I think Ohio and West Virginia will stay red; Florida Obama will probably win, and North Carolina will be close.

Interesting to note over the weekend that the papers in Atlanta, Houston, Idaho, North Carolina, and Denver came out for Obama (all having backed Bush in 2004), and their primary reason was Palin.

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