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Henry Quimper

Listed below are comments made by Henry Quimper between Wednesday, 18th November 2009 and Tuesday, 15th December 2009.

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Remembering Paul Samuelson 06:19am on 15 Dec 2009 Of Christopher Wren, it was said that if you would see his monument, look around you. Sadly, as the father of modern economics, Paul Samuelson's monument is the wreckage of the credit crunch. He may not have produced the ideas that led to the catastrophe, but his disciples did.

But having said that, as a teacher the guy was brilliant. I remember one of his books introducing me to the concept of the dollar vote and the realisation that came to me from this that Marxist / Socialist ideas of a command economy were doomed.

A man of many talents who deserved to be remembered by those who come after him - just as Keynes' ideas are still relevant today.

But remember the dictum of Frank Cousins. "If there is a free for all, then we are part of the all". Samuelson propounded the free market economy. We take our part in it and live with the consequences.
Walking the line 08:53am on 10 Dec 2009 Yes, Stephanie, there is no EASY way out. But we do NEED a way OUT. This PBR blatantly does not offer us one. When the deficit is 12% of GNP and the capacity of the economy to pay much more in tax is clearly zilch, we need an axe swinging in Whitehall.

The bottom line is that we are being over governed. Cut trhe impact of government on our lives and the deficit is blown away.

Have you noticed that Darling has refused to go down this line? To do so would be to go against one of the cardinal principles of Socialism - that the Government knows better than its citizens,
Greek sovereign debt: Exit closed? 06:01am on 09 Dec 2009 Stephanie - having told us this tale of manipulation by the ECB, I compare what they are up to with our programme of money printing to achieve the same objective. Is it better to print money or to accept debt that you know has zero probability of being repaid (albeit backed up by our sovereign debt which we think will be repaid)?

Having typed in the previous sentence, I spent some time in thought and decided that I feel more comfortable printing money. At least you know that the coinage is blushing with shame as it is now debased. With the dodgy sovereign debt route, you have no idea which of these houses of cards will be the next to collapse.

However, I would feel infinitely more comfortable if neither route was taken. Is it next week the inflation numbers are due out for November? Expect the RPI to go positive.

One thing you have done, Stephanie, is to convince me that we should not join the Euro. What on earth would be the consequences of a default in Greek Sovereign Debt in Frankfurt? All that the ECB has done is to make the effect of the inevitable (when interest rates return to normal) much worse.
Flattening, not falling? 8:46pm on 04 Dec 2009 Stephanie, what on earth is the relevance of your post? Nero may or may not have fiddled while Rome burned, but if he did then this navel gazing of yours must surely be an equivalent activity.

It is obvious to me that we are out of recession and the ONS has it wrong. The figures do not add up. They are the ones out of step. But this does not matter. What matters is our yawning budget deficit. Have you noticed Stephanie?

Furthermore, we are printing money to cover the gap. Have you noticed this Stephanie?

You are the economics guru. I only have a first degree in the subject. What tin opener are you assuming such that these huge structural problems are as nothing compared to the accuracy of suspect ONS figures?

This is intended as reality therapy for you. I respect you, but wish you would leave this nerdish subject to the nerds and concemntrate on the big picture.
How HBOS escaped closure 3:12pm on 04 Dec 2009 What would Lloyds be worth per share now if HBOS had not been purchased? Also bear in mind two rights issues have been made for under 40p per share.

I figure it as about £5 a share.

I had about 2700 such shares now worth about 55p. So I am down about £4.45 a share.

So is every other shareholder. The line forms on the left. I reckon I am owed about £12,000. Who is going to lead the class action?

Sadly, the personal fortunes of the people who signed the deal for Lloyds will not be enough to cover what they owe the shareholders and if they were adequately insured against the peril of acting stupidly in the Lloyds insurance market, a different (and possibly overlapping) set of people would be bankrupted. It would make asbestos claims look like pocket money.

I agree with #4. They deserve criminal prosecution. The trouble is they would probably get off on the grounds of diminished responsibility.
A bubble, or 'stubble', of our own design 3:20pm on 02 Dec 2009 I have lost the plot somewhere, Robert. Where is the money coming from that these incredibly stupid bankers are lending?
GDP estimates becoming more accurate? 6:34pm on 25 Nov 2009 I am reminded of Winnie the Pooh. He once said, "I am a bear of little brain. Big words bother me."

From where I sit, it is blindingly obvious that the ONS has it wrong. We are in growth. Arguing in big words is pointless.

One day reality will break through. If I have it wrong, sorry. But reality will emerge.
Why did Bank of England keep shtoom? 8:33pm on 24 Nov 2009 I had been hoping, Robert, to get your take on this important issue. I am very grateful you took this opportunity to write for us. I wish you well with whatever your family problems may be.

I consider the views expressed by Noideaatall in #4 deserve highlighting. Trading while insolvent must have been going on and is a criminal matter. The boards of RBS and HBOS should by now have been at the very least been interviewed by police under caution and a file being prepared for the procurator fiscal - or whatever is the modern day Scottish equivalent to the CPS. But it isn't happening. WHY NOT???

But aside from this, did Lloyds TSB directors KNOW about the loan to HBOS prior to the merger going to the shareholders? If they didn't, the Governor or the Bank of England should seriously consider his position. He manages our currency. It is fiducary. How can you trust a currency when its manager does something like this?

If the Lloyds TSB board DID know, they had a clear duty to inform their shareholders and did not. If they did not because they were told they must not, then they should have called off the merger.

Something entirely rotten happened last January in respect of this merger. We are still governed by the same regime as perpetrated it. Yet honour seems to count for so little in this country that nobody is going to do the honourable thing and quit.

Do these people understand how they have debased themselves?
Three-way on the MPC 10:34pm on 18 Nov 2009 47 - This is my great fear. I have already posted that there is a risk that we could see Tesco sutting every hour to put their prices up. So much inflation is being stoked up by this fatuous program of QE.

If it is being done deliberately and for public consumption we are being told what they want us to hear, we are back to the bad days of the 70s.

Someone posted earlier about the IMF. I am sure that if we had the brokers men come in, the first thins they would do would be to stop QE and slash government expenditure by amounts we would find unthinkable.
Three-way on the MPC 2:21pm on 18 Nov 2009 At last! The Bank's monetary policy committee has seen the point. If you print money, then inflation breaks out. (Discovered by John Law in Paris in 1720 or so). Giving it a polite name like Quantative Easing does not disguise what is going on. Someone on the committee is looking at the abyss.

I will go on record and say that I think the RPI will go positive when the November figures are released next month and probably will be around 2% when the December figures are released in January. Blame Quantative Easing.

But this does not address the fundamental structural problem in our economy where the Government is spending far more than it can collect in taxes. If taxation rose to cover the deficit, we would be plunged into a Depression - not recession. There is nothing in the Queens Speech to suggest that this over riding issue is recognnised - let alone addressed. We need the size of Government cut by about a third.

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