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mcgrathbryan

Listed below are comments made by mcgrathbryan between Wednesday, 13th May 2009 and Friday, 23rd October 2009.

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First draft of UK economic history 1:26pm on 23 Oct 2009 Congratulations to Ben Broadbent of Goldman Sachs, he has proved yet again that "there are lies, dam lies, and statistics". Clearly he is the master of the spreadsheet with a few add-ons to calculate correlation coefficients: I expect Goldsman pay him a couple of mill a year for his trouble, and that before the Christmas jiggle of Santa's sledge carrying the bonus.

Yes the figures are the "flash" reading, and yes there will be revised, possibly up (but also possibly down as Stephanie pointed out).

Of course we can't let a little thing like the facts get in the way. Goldmans is making a mint by momentum investment trading, with the cost of money close to zero and staying there for another year or so. If Goldmans gets its timing wrong and is left holding the parcel, in this game of pass the parcel, when the cost of money starts to rise, it will, of course, demand that the taxpayer bails it out, just like it did this time last year.
Can we afford the carriers? 10:43am on 30 Jun 2009 I am surprised that you are surprised Robert.

The whole saga of PFI and I quote from the Department of Health "The private finance initiative (PFI) provides a way of funding major capital investments, without immediate recourse to the public purse." Or buy on the "never-never" we will be out of office when the tally-man loses his rag.

Give the "prols" bread and circuses and the senate will remain placid. Emperor Brown only yesterday produced another "Jam,to put on the bread (sic), tomorrow" story for the consumption of the proletariat.
Why banks must be allowed to die 10:13am on 26 Jun 2009 "bifurcated by fiat", surely this is wrong. Bifurcating implies splitting into two equal parts as in a bi-fork i.e. fork with two equal prongs.

The principle behind splitting the banks in retail and investment components, their relative size is of no importance.

Brown, Darling and Turner have bought into the argument that the banks have put forward that the big beasts will go offshore to Dubai or similar exotic location. Would this be a bad thing? Dubai (with the support of the rest of the Emirates) could afford to bail out a global bank to two, the next time they go broke (about 2025?)
Time for Labour to come clean over cuts 10:44am on 17 Jun 2009 The Lib Dems have ditched the Trident replacement, cute of Nick Clegg, since it was the one policy area where "Calamity Clegg" disagreed with Chris Huhne in the leadership contest. Still needs must when the devil drives (or in this case the IMF bean counters).

When do the Tories come clean on Trident? So far ID cards: cost of government; and Quango pay are the "identified" saving. £5 billion for ID cards, the rest £500 million, at most.

Where is the money (coming from) honey
Rebuilding the foundations of finance 10:13am on 17 Jun 2009 Of course Alistair Darling is his master's creature. Admitting failure in the tripartite approach would be tantamount to accepting the "Great Leader", the Fife Stalinist, has not got a clue what he is on about. Mr Darling will be spending "more time with his family" after the general election: the Fife Stalinist, will in the tradition of stalinists down the years, will continue to rewrite history, i.e. "it wasn't my fault guv".

Clearly "traditional banks", i.e. those that borrow money "short" from depositors and lend "long" to mortgage holders and companies need to have the support of the "lender of last resort". Investment banking a.k.a. "casino banking" should be on there own, as in "moral hazard".

Clearly Lord Turner of the FSA Has done the bidding of his masters. He is "the City's whore", since the FSA is paid for by the "financial institutions", except, of course, when they go broke for billions. When these "exceptional" circumstance occur, it is the taxpayer, to some extent, and the currency/"money printing presses" that really pay the price.
West Brom: Three-quarters mutual 10:53am on 12 Jun 2009 Well Robert I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so when you claimed that the only building society in trouble was the Dunfermline Building Society, back in January 2009,when the West Brom Building Society was accredited with eligibility for the Governments Credit Guarantee Scheme.

With regard to how the new Profit Participating Deferred Shares (PPDS) will effect the exists permanent interest bearing shares (PIBS) we need to look at the published accounts, well at least the "Bromie" gives its current best guess (given they were in denial a month ago, it remains a bit flakey).

Initially the WB will pay the 6.15% until the PPDS come into existence.
Thereafter the interest paided is effectively reduced to 25% of the coupon value of 6.15% (i.e. 1.5% split between April 2010 and October 2010 at least.)

Thereafter the same as the PPDS, with a max of back to 6.15%. Given that the PIBS have traded at between £22, initially today, up to £24.75, and back down to £24 (compared with £43 a month ago), it would appear to be bad news.

Yet given that the "Bromie" has a call option at £100 in 5/4/2021, if the "Bromie" becomes a tasty morsel for Nationwide or another of the "scale builders" that option price looks like a price they will have to pay.

HMG has just given itself another reason to review the Financial Services
Compensation Scheme (FSCS) charge, which for the "Bromie" was £12.2 million. The "profit" before exceptions was £38 million. The PPDS get up to 25% of the profit i.e. about £9.5 million on their holding of £182.5 million, getting on for about 5%. Therefore long term the PIBS can expect to have a coupon reduced from 6.15% to about 5% ( I assuming the 25% of the profit pays the PPDS ONLY and not BOTH PPDS and PIBS.)

It is all a wild gamble, but it doesn't look too bad to me (I bought into the PIBS at £42 a month ago, gambling on a takeover rather than this reconstruction).

THe PIBS market is going to be fun over the next year or so, whilst the PPDS settle down.
Anderson provides midfield balance 03:06am on 26 May 2009 I'm afraid I'm not impressed with Anderson at all. He is too fond of taking the ball away from defenders by going sideways. He frequently ends up moving in triangles whilst the opposition file past him. With everybody marked up he will release a sideways ball.

Ron Atkinson called Ray Wilkins "the crab" because he always passed the ball sideways, which I thought was a little cruel: I think it is true of Anderson. Strangle that Carrick doesn't seem overly worried about hitting long diagonal balls from defensive midfield positions.
Count it, don't follow it 5:07pm on 14 May 2009 Steff, you have just depressed me more than ever. Mr or Mrs Average MP has got £24K burning a hole in their pocket.

Your question which one of sex and drugs and rock n' roll did they spent the £24K on.

Answer, giving we are dealing with Mr. or Mrs Average MP, is all three.

I just can't wait to return to some good old fashion sex scandals.
Fraudulence, theft and malfeasance 1:23pm on 14 May 2009 You have to laugh. Andrew MacKay is out of the door of Cameron's Office. Can he survive as an MP, surely not. But what about Mrs MacKay, fellow M.P. Julie Kirkbride, she will have to walk the plant as well.

What is making me laugh? Ms. Kirkbride is one of the Torygraphs own. Perhaps they will give her old job back as political correspondent. Of course, they will be helping Knacker of the Yard with his inquiries quite soon.

The Torygraph have unleashed a monster they can no longer control, that does make me laugh.
More to come? 10:32am on 13 May 2009

Strange that the Torygraph, the propaganda wing of the Tory party, should round its fire on the Lib Dems just as the Lib Dem campaign for the coming elections gets underway.

Fairly poor stuff compared with the tory grandees: 10 grand for tarting up a rented flat; a trouser press delivered to a home address; and a 40 quid court summons for non-payment of council tax.

Excuse me, Saint Dave Cameron of Witney claimed a total of £141,820 on his second home allowance over five years (including 1,700 quid a month in mortgage interest on his Oxfordshire gaff). This is a "tory toff" who is worth approximately £30 million who has manipulated the Additional Costs Allowance (ACA) for "improper personal financial benefit to themselves or anyone else"

Chief tory propagandist at the Torygraph, Iain Martin claims:"MPs' expenses: David Cameron playing a bit of a blinder, so far".

The Stalinists at 30 Millbank must be breaking open the Moet and Chandon Brut Imperial Champagne.

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