Monday's Glass Box.
The Glass Box is where the PM team meets in at 18.00 every weeknight to discuss the content of the programme. We stay six feet away from each other.
We try to be honest with each other, but not hurtful, as we talk about what worked and what didn't...what met our expectations and what fell short.
This virtual glass box is where you're encouraged to take part in the same spirit. Tonight's PM's editor Roger Sawyer will read your comments and may well add his own.
Listen to PM
© MMIX~RS~q~RS~~RS~z~RS~39~RS~)
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Eddie
I trust you hadn't trotted off to visit your GP because you were feeling a bit feverish...
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Definitely looking a bit dicky to me (the Glass Box, that is).
Perhaps a spell in quarantine is called for?
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Hope it's not swine/ avian/ Hong Kong/ Russian/ Spanish/ Asian flu.
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Is it a nasty case of avian flu?
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Chris, I'm sure you're right.
"I opened the window and in flew Enza"
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curses, beaten to it!
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;o)
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Argh, people keep posting while I'm composing my posts!
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Just spotted on Twitter:
The only known cure for Swine Flu has been found to be the liberal application of oinkment.
Waaaaaaaah! ;oD
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Maybe before anyone else gets in, I can explain that I don't think it's a glass box but a glass case in the picture above...
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C_G 10 - looks like a perspex receptacle to me.
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I'm all for caring for animals, but taking the woodlice to the vet is going too far.
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Pigs might fly ...
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How is it that the CML (Council of Mortgage Lenders) said the money volume of mortgaging was up 7 percent on last month, whilst today the British Bankers Association (BBA) says the number of mortgages was 16 percent down?
Does it mean that the very rich are picking up 'snips' - a house priced at 7 million last year bought for 5 million now?
I.e. fewer sales (down 25 percent on last year) even this March c.f. February, but on much more expensive houses?
Well. yeah, except the CML says mortgage money is down to a half of what it was a year ago.
And, HMRC, (Revenue and Customs)
says sale numbers are up 40 percent in March.
This needs the Truffle of Truth Sniffer, surely, or if not he, his right hand man, Nils.
Is it 'cos the bankers is bonkers as per, or cos the CML was trying to drum up business and the government is quoting a number it likes the sound of?
Or is it 'cos the whole economic system depends on the inherent dishonesty of exploitation and so everyone within it, lies - tells it exactly how they need to from their personal vantage point?
There are theorems in economics which claim that selfishness 'works' (it doesn't, but....), but there are no economic theorems that say dishonesty is optimal. There are plenty of theorems that say capitalism will collapse, that it is inherently dishonest and that the latter causes the former and liars of us all, though. We seem to be in a period proving it.
Curiously, majority voting copes very well, one might almost say caters for, dishonest and strategic players
(All numbers courtesy of today's Ceefaxes at 205 and 238 (Check the index at 201, things can change))
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Sid, Pigs might fly ...and they do
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TRW,
Give the man a cigar!You're being intentionally dim:
Probably:
up from last month, down from same month last year, down to half last year's money volume... all individually possible and not mutually incompatible...
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Oh, cup of tea and break. Lovely. Now for a quick frog -
I wonder what PM-ish angle we'll get tonight?
Pigs that flu/flew?
Which swine listeners would like to see sniffling into their hankies?
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From the weekend's reading
;-)
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Who is that feeding Eddie in the glass box?
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Well a funny thing happened this morning
http://gawker.com/5229556/airplane-flies-around-manhattan-scares-everyone
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Funny how the information, which IS incompatible, has the rhetorical gradients:
For the govt. 'Revenue streams and economic activity are holding up nicely'
For the bonkers: 'The govt still hasn't given us enough money for lending to start again'
For mortgage lenders; 'Buy now, mortgages, therefore sales, therefore prices are on the way up. Tomorrow may be too late. Mortgage yourselves today.'
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Interesting that in the middle of last night I heard on the World Service an email being read out from a doctor in Mexico who claimed that there was pressure on them not to record deaths as being from 'flu, but from pneumonia or other causes.
As I have not heard this repeated since, was it found to be untrue?
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Re.: the woman who makes too much noise "in bed". Perhaps a gag or oil on the bedsprings or moving the headboard away from the wall are in order here. Enough said.
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"There's an insatiable demand" for energy said your reporter, and there's the key. Until people realise that we cannot continue to demand and get everything we think we want, the problem is insoluble.
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Good article on swine flu.
But I'm still left wondering why so many people died in Mexico if this flu is not as virulent as some in the past.
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JAW (20) pretty spooky. Especially the video.
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Anne,
Spot on!Peace and living within our means
Edsiodos
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25
Turn your question around?
Maybe, one should reflect on how virulent the pandemic of 1918 was?
The "lesser" 1958 flu infection was frightening and dangerous enough...
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Is it a pandemic or a medics' panic?
Is the truffle of truth now a snuffle in the snout? Or is just a trifling sniffle?
Is the World Health level of threat at 3, half way to 6? Do we need spinal taps to cope with this threat treatment?
Where is ISIHAC when it's needed?
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H 27
As Felix Dennis has put it (and hopefully, I paraphrase him reasonably accurately)...
"The Earth is not here for mankind. Mankind is here for the Earth..."
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If I have understood correctly in relation to pandemic 'flu (and I may well not have done) we need to wait for two bits of evidence. First a large enough number of cases to assess the seriousness of the virus i.e. deaths per thousand cases and also the age-related distribution since what characterised 1918 was the high proportion of deaths among young adults. Secondly we need to see whether the virus mutates further in the course of the epidemic, however large that turns out to be.
Meanwhile we take sensible precautions.
Although the 1918 epidemic is better understood than it was a few years ago there is no evidence from earlier epidemics to be able to tell with certainty why 1918 was so bad. Now with anti-virals and better treatment for pneumonia etc we in the west should be better off. But let no-one underestimate the possible seriousness of some 'flu viruses. In 1918 there were people who left work feeling unwell and died before they reached home.
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Is there any information on the living conditions of those who have died from this flu in Mexico? I understand there is a great divide between rich and poor there and I'm wondering whether the deaths occurred among those unfortunate people who do not have a good standard of living.
It seems that there is no reason to be too alarmed about this flu as it can be treated. The Glass Box looks pretty healthy and the Doctor has a grin on her face - perhaps she suspects hypochondria?
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WOLF!
Well, I thoughht I would get in there with the Powers That Be, who might otherwise establish a monopoly in crying it.
My personal theory about this flu is that we need to be very, very frightened, because once all those Mexican pigs start to run through the Transatlantic Tunnel (hurrah!) and invade us from Cornwall, we are all going to die
die
I'm sorry. My newspaper this morning had the headline "Swine Flu Sweeps Globe" and a story on an inside page that indicated one (count it one) confirmed case outside the Americas, plus ten people on one other continent and about twenty on another who *might* have it.
There is still one case confirmed in Spain. Of the seventeen cases in England that they think might have it, only two are in isolation, the other fifteen presumably are sneezing all over everyone in a hospital here or there.
be afraid, be very afraid, we are all going to die
WOLF!!!
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Ah, and two confirmed in Scotland; plus the seven people who were in contact with them and have mild symptoms.
Even so, I don't think this is enough to merit "sweeps globe".
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Did anyone happen to catch Harriet Harman on the Today program this morning spouting on about equality in the work place for those disadvantaged through lack of qualifications and marginalised backgrounds (like the working class).
As I understood it she was trying to say that employers should not look at the background a candidate comes from.
I suppose Mrs Harman, this is why you decided to have your kids privately educated. Oh, I forgot, The stuff that comes out your gobs only applies to the lumpenproletariat never yourselves.
HYPOCRYT.
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Will Muslim female children be sent home from school if they wear masks to protect their physical, as opposed to spiritual, health?
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Well said, L-S.
Whether the 'flu is a lethal pandemic or not, the poor of Mexico City don't deserve to die, and no one in Mexico city deserves to be poorer than any of us.
Or richer.
I still think Edgie was half asleep not wondering what the World Health scale meant.
What's 'significant'?
Let us pray it is mild and that even the very young, the very old and the very vulnerable can survive it if properly cared for.
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Looks as though this is not the best time for Eddie to be a news-hunting truffle pig. And in fact this problem only arose since he turned into one. Time to morph back again, perhaps?
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Chris (33) you do raise an important point which I think causes the planners a real problem - at what stage do you call an alert and risk being accused of crying wolf?
However if like the mayor in Jaws you insist there must not be a problem and there really is one, then you only magnify the disaster. It is not an easy one to judge.
The history of flu epidemic is that they come at intervals and do eventually 'sweep the globe'. As Lady Sue points out it is/will be the poor who suffer the worst effects because they have least good access to healthcare. It would be very interesting to know the answer to her question and I suspect the media will pick up on that quite quickly.
Shame about the timing of Eddie's lovely ad though.
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Lady Sue (32) - I've not heard anything about the class/wealth divide, only that it is particularly severe with patients aged 20-50. One of the theories I've read concerning the pandemic we were "expecting" (H5N1) was that the immune systems in this age group are "over-activated" and mount a very enthusiastic response which actually kills the patient. You don't see the same responses in the very young and the very old because their immune systems aren't as strong.
One of the aspects that I would imagine would complicate matters in Mexico City is that the air you're breathing in really isn't great! I can't imagine it would be good for anyone with a respiratory infection.
The interesting aspect for me will be how the WHO organises distribution of anti-virals and treatment of those who develop the complications of influenza. Tamiflu doesn't stop you getting flu - it stops the bug reproducing as well and gives your body a fighting chance of beating it more easily. It's use is important though because it stops you spreading your flu as easily to others so it makes good public health sense to distribute it widely and cheaply in any community which has flu running through it - whether it is rich or poor. The relative affluence of a community will come with the management of the complications of influenza - if it does develop into pneumonia will WHO organise appropriate treatment at minimal cost for all concerned?
We still have a lot to find out about this virus though. Although we're still at WHO Pandemic Level 3 we were checking the date on the Tamiflu stocks at work and making sure we had everyone's contact details up to date and knew where the policies and procedures and risk assessment forms were. We didn't do that when we had bird flu in the county... This seems more of a threat because it seems to be spreading from person to person.
In line with the HPA algorithm the policy is to ask patients to stay in their homes unless they are ill enough to need hospital treatment, hence the reason that there isn't reports of wards full of people awaiting results. Swabs for analysis can be taken by appropriately gloved, gowned and masked healthcare staff. It sounds very much like you used to read about the Great Plague of London but it is supposed to reduce transmission within a community. We'll have to see if it works.
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RxKaren - I hope you're on the R4 Audience Panel. Because it looks like they're going to be needing your informed professional opinion. Make sure they've got your mobile number...
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Talking of swine flu...
Ouch: http://tr.im/jRq9
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Lady Sue and RxKaren.
The Chief Medical Officer has confirmed today that there are 33 mln doses of Tamiflu in the UK. The priority distribution list is headed, understandably, by the frontline service providers - doctors, nurses, police, gravediggers (only joking) etc.
The rest of us are told to stay put and phone NHS Direct.
I find the media's counting of a possible pandemic in single numbers, "one person here", "two people there" a bit tedious, like telling time by the minute hand of the clock. One does so hope that it will all peter out by and by.
Yet even the most devastating earthquakes always begin the body count in single figures, which snowball into thousands quickly enough.
I have checked the SAS survival guide and (not joking this time) suggest that all of us at the very least check that we do have a week or two of supplies and bottled water stashed away, just in case we don't feel like going out all of a sudden.
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(40) RxKaren: Thank you! So good to have an informed, calm voice of reason in potential 'scare mongering' times.
I was hoping you would comment on the situation and what you say is without doubt the most helpful and useful of any of the information I've heard to date. Like annasee, I hope PM picks up on your comments and interviews you.
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Does the 'politics of austerity' also apply to the British 'upper class' and epecially the 1000 richest people in Little Britain on the Sunday Times Rich List (2009) who are still worth 258.27 Billion pounds.. Mr Cameron?
Brian V Peck
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So, RXKaren, are you a professional? Heaven knows PM needs some..
Jo
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Jo, we're all professional on this blog, don't-you-know?
Just don't delve too deeply into our professions .... ;o)
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Dear All
Glad my words helped calm some of you down. It's not inevitable that there will be a pandemic and the fact that every year for about the last 5 we have been planning for a pandemic avian flu and it hasn't happened means that we are actually really well prepared in the UK. I certainly feel very comfortable (and it's not just because I know where I keep my organisation's supply of Tamiflu!)
We do, however, feel that we need to take some responsibility for this here. Last week the infection prevention nurse and I were talking about how we'd got through another season without a major flu outbreak. I'd just got rid of the remaining stock of season 2008/2009 flu vaccines I was that sure...
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(48) RxKaren, many thanks (again) for your comment.
Is 'Tamiflu' a "cover all" flu vaccine and the one required for this one?
Would the 2008/2009 stock, which I assume was created for a particular strain, really have been useful?
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The man I buy my newspaper from is a Muslim, and he said that at least he wouldn't catch swine flu from eating pork. (Yes, yes, YES, I know, nobody will. Unless a pig sneezes on them.)
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RxKaren. Don't feel bad. It wasn't your getting rid of the last of the flu vaccines that caused the outbreak. Obviously it was whoever created the PM trail, in which it was considered a good idea to link news-gathering with pigs. How they must have laughed when they thought that one up. "Oh how amusingly off the wall! Pigs making the news! As if!"
Btw, thanks for your reassurance about my thyroxine overdose. As you see, i am still alive! Interesting day following though. I really did "speed up" - if I was like that all the time how much work would I get done! If Eddie ever had to take a budget cut in the quad-latte department, I think I know how he could get the same effect...
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Annasee, Eddie told us the other day that they survive on tea in the PM office. And he expected us to believe that? ;o)
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Lady Sue, Tamiflu is not a vaccine but a treatment in the form of pills. The other one is Relenza which is a nasal spray. Both work by reducing the extent to which the virus replicates thereby allowing your immune system to beat the bug. To be fully effective they need to be taken within about 48 hours of symptoms appearing and it is often suggested that immediate contacts are treated too.
Designing and producing any vaccine takes time because first you have to know exactly what you are trying to beat and then you have to work it up to production scale - hence they are saying four to six months to produce in large enough quantities. The good news is that because there has been good awareness and preparation the wheels will have been put in motion pretty fast.
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a 51, My niece had a 'speed up' when she first started taking it.
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But she didn't start connecting words...
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Very strange, now disconnected...
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Hello All...
Many thanks for your comments.
The flu story is an easy one to tell badly, so we are doing our best to keep listeners as informed as possible, without being alarmist... or indeed underplaying the situation. We've had a couple emails accusing the media of hype and saying PM should ignore the story. I don't agree... though the way medical/science stories are reported generally is an interesting subject in itself.
We did try to get to the bottom of why people have been dying in Mexico, but not elsewhere. It seeems to have all the experts baffled for the moment, though I agree that RxKaren's very thoughtful post was full of good sense.
Cossackgirl, the incremental charting of cases of swine flu is not done to build up a total number, but to mark the spread of the virus.
And Lady Sue (@49), my understanding is that tamiflu is not a vaccination, but a treatment. I don't think there are any catch-all vaccinations, though I do believe that some can be effective across a number of strains. Don't take my word for that though... I'm not a health expert.
Anyway... there are lots of unanswered questions, and I am sorry we were not able to provide answers yesterday... maybe today as it is a fast developing story.
It's a story that certainly makes for lively editorial meetings.
Elsewhere on the programme, I rather liked the Mayor of Wallingford on his efforts to be de-twinned from (with?) a town in France due to a lack of communication. And a story that had to be dropped for space reasons... apparently Paraguay and Bolivia were about to sign a document officially ending an 80 year border dispute that caused the Chaco War in 1932. They've done it now, I think... with Argentina having been arbitrating since the 1930s. maybe it will make tonight... but that's up to Jo, who's in the chair.
Hasta luego...
Rog
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Anne P: thanks for that explanation. Most enlightening!
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Roger, always good to get your comments. Thanks for taking the time to post them.
I thought the Mayor of Wallingford piece was amusing but a tad long. I suppose you have to balance up doing a longer piece with one person and trying to fit in two "quickies".
Hasta Lurgi (let's hope not!)
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Here are some interesting ways to track swine flu online:
a) Interactive Google map - purple markers represent probable/confirmed cases, pink markers suspect cases, yellow markers negative. Click on a marker for more info.
http://tinyurl.com/cywddc
b) Real-time Twitter search - see what people are Tweeting about swine flu.
http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23swineflu
http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%22Swine+Flu%22
But a word of caution - there is a body of opinion that thinks that Twitter will help spread panic - http://bit.ly/Y2GDh
c) Google Trends - an indication of how many people are searching for swine flu / tamiflu / relenza
http://www.google.com/trends?q=swine+flu%2Ctamiflu%2Crelenza&ctab=0&geo=all&date=mtd&sort=0
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RXK (48) For a moment I thought
"Every year for about the last 5 we have been planning for a pandemic avian flu and it hasn't happened means that we are actually really well prepared in the UK"
meant that, having collected enough pills for the really important people five times over, we now have enough for 50% of the population.
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Vyle Hernia (61) - And what do you think now?
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Vyle (61) - Sorry with the delay - I've been in various logistics and response planning meetings all day.
Essentially you provide for 1/3 of your staff figuring that's about the rate at which the infection will hit your organisation. The capsules have a decent shelf life so you put them somewhere safe and don't bother with them. You do set up an alert in your email/calendar system for the month before they expire to order some more.
Now that we've gone to Pandemic Stage 4 (Well, we were before I went into the meetings) the manufacturers stop releasing the medicines to any Tom, Dick or RxKaren and they are prioritised to the areas where there are community based flu outbreaks. This is co-ordinated by the NHS which is getting the intelligence from the calls to NHS Direct and NHS 24. It all seems very clever.
They're also getting the information from the HPA accredited labs which are checking the nose/throat swabs from the patients who are being checked out by healthcare workers.
Periodically throughout the past 5 years health and social care providers (PCTs, Hospitals, Social Services, Councils, etc) have got together for tabletop exercises where they pretend that there's been a disaster and shuffle the Playmobil figures around to cope with the crisis to see where the gaps in the current provision are. I've been told that it's a bit like Time Commanders without the fancy graphics and satellite view. Apparently they're quite good fun (I've never been on one).
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Lady Sue (49) - Tamiflu works on some strains of flu really well. It is a capsule that you take to stop the virus working. Some strains are resistant to it but the available evidence is that this H1N1 is sensitive to it. The stock I have from 3 years ago should work. It isn't a vaccine - you take it after you've caught flu and it won't stop you catching it. It does stop you spreading your flu.
There is some thought that those who had the seasonal flu vaccine (the one that changes every year) for the 2008/2009 season will have some protection as it did include an H1N1 component.
In terms of distribution - it should be distributed where it is needed. With my sensible head on I am not providing you with Tamiflu to make you feel better. I am giving you Tamiflu to stop you giving flu to me! There is no altruism in this. It is a technique to stop those already infected from passing it on to the rest of the population so that the outbreak burns out. As I can catch flu equally from a Duke or a Dustman it makes equal sense to give Tamiflu to both if they have flu. If I only have one pack left I would give it to the one who was at greatest risk of developing complications (and expecting me to look after them) and ask the other one to stay inside until he felt better. That should have the same effect and stop me having to care for someone. This sounds quite hard but it is about conserving the resources of the community.
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RxKaren - I hope you are one of the experts on PM this evening! If not, you certainly should be. Will you be posing a question?
Your comments have been a great help in reassurance - I do like to get good common sense in the face of potential "scare mongering".
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Thank you for those kind words. I just work with a lot of experts and we share our knowledge in the hope of increasing our pooled knowledge. Our real expert is the Infection Prevention nurse. As I said, though, we've been talking about this for years so we're suddenly coming into our own.
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RxKaren - well you've obviously been doing all the right things and a damn good job. Well done and thanks again.
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This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the House Rules.
Make that L_S 59.
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RxKaren,
Your explanations convey a clear understanding and an ability to spread that clarity. Thanks for being you, and I agree you would very probably make an excellent contribution on-air.
Keep up your excellent vocation
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Hesiodos (70) - Hear, hear to that. Thanks RxKaren.
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Yes indeed; thanks to RxKaren for those posts.
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