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Shaun Ley's US Odyssey.

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Eddie Mair | 04:57 UK time, Monday, 3 November 2008

Shaunley.JPG

"Two days before election day, and everyone here seems to have run-out of things to say.

The candidates repeat the same message. Barack Obama has his speech off pat; John McCain tends to sound less fluent, and perhaps that makes his stump speech seem a little fresher.

Both men are also nostalgic. I've just heard Obama talking - again - about the cold day eighteen months ago when he launched his campaign in Illinois' former capital, Springfield.

As for McCain he's off down memory lane, too; in New Hampshire where he beat George Bush in the primary contest in 2000. He's also holding one of his fabled town hall meetings there, an occasion where he takes questions from whoever turns up.

It's the kind of thing which drives campaign strategists nuts, because there's a risk of the candidate going off script. But risk is what he needs to take right now. He's behind in all the polls, and having seen him at such an event in New Hampshire at the beginning of January, I know how effective he can be.

For those who think it's all over, some cautionary stories are to be found in a leaflet being handed out in branchs of Starbucks. In the presidential election eight years ago, George Bush was ahead of Al Gore by just 537 votes in Florida, but that gave him the state's 25 votes in the Electoral College, pushing him past the winning post of 270 Electoral College votes.

In 2006, Joe Courtney became a Congressman after winning his district in Conneticut by only 83 votes. Maybe he would have got a few more had he not stopped campaigning for half an hour to talk to me and the team from The World This Weekend !

But we can't be blamed for the result in Ann Arbor in Michigan in 1977. Mayor Albert Wheeler won there by a single vote.

Thanks to all the early voting, turnout shouldn't be a problem in this election. In Colorado, 46 pee cent of registered voters have already cast their ballots; and in Oregon every vote that's going to cast probably already has been. In the Beaver State, you're only able to vote by post.

It's safe to predict the turnout will be high on Tuesday, but it would be foolish to predict anything else.

You can hear more from the campaign trail from Martha Kearney on Monday's edition of The World At One, and on Tuesday join James Naughtie and me for an election night special as the results come in. We'll be on air from midnight, which is 7pm in Washington, the time when the first polling stations will close."

Comments

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  • 1. At 08:18am on 03 Nov 2008, gossipmistress wrote:

    Who's this 'Pat' that BO gets his speeches from?

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  • 2. At 09:08am on 03 Nov 2008, Big Sister wrote:

    ""Two days before election day, and everyone here seems to have run-out of things to say."

    Ah, if only that were true, Shaun! ;o)

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  • 3. At 10:33am on 03 Nov 2008, Chris_Ghoti wrote:

    Meanwhile, there is this to say for every thread about the wretched business being labelled 'Shaun Ley's US Odyssey' -- it's safe to skip them all if one is not interested in trying to guess what will happen in an election tomorrow.

    Dear Eddie, kind Eddie, nice Eddie, if you were offered a pink-iced cake with purple candles on it, please could you make some distinction between one thread and another, if there are to be so many with the same name? As with 'Autumn', it's really quite hard to tell t'other from which.

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  • 4. At 10:37am on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    C_G 3, Just click on SPECIAL: Autumn and go through all of them. The newest will be at the top. Should be about time for today's.

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  • 5. At 10:43am on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    C_G 3, Except for the one called Autumn with no photos.

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  • 6. At 11:24am on 03 Nov 2008, The Stainless Steel Cat wrote:

    I'd just like to take this opportunity to congratulate Neil Hamilton on his comeback to become top driving-round-in-circles-for-no-apparent-reason person.

    Well done!

    (And from the pictures on the BBC news site, Christine's looking rather fit these days. Well done to her too.)

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  • 7. At 12:03pm on 03 Nov 2008, U12196018 wrote:

    The Stainless Steel Cat (6) - Well done to her two what?

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  • 8. At 1:40pm on 03 Nov 2008, confusedfeel wrote:

    Am I the only one whose brain switches off when I hear or see another report on the US Election? All those correspondents reporting that nothing much is happening.

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  • 9. At 2:23pm on 03 Nov 2008, U11204129 wrote:

    It's clear

    We'll win

    By talkin'

    This way

    And by what

    We say

    The phrases charged, the spaces doing the talking too.

    And a rhythm, de-de dah, de-de dah, ....(as many or as few as y'like)...de-de dah....(then ending).. de-dah.

    Compare it with Kinnock who 'began that sentence in Carduff in 1967, continued it on a platform, whether one on one of the few stations the Tories left us, or on one at Conference what Militant failed to take over because their taxis went to the wrong addresses, or the one I used to become Leader of our great party,......, that even today. I still seem to be in the middle of, still, it seems, in some subordinate adverbial clause of place, that one day, one day, somewhere, somehow, will lead to that comma, or even a closed bracket, that will then lead on to a full stop, of that self same sentence........., which ...


    Words, words words, where the listener would prefer spaces.

    Spaces give the listener the feeling s/he is doing the talking.


    Kinnock had marvelous cadences but who bothered to enjoy?

    Hitler, they used to hang (him, I wish) on every word wishin' and hopin' for the verb. (So I've been gesagt)

    Obama and Kinnock.

    A bit like blogging differences between DMcN and.......

    ......


    Yours sincerely
    pmLeader.

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  • 10. At 2:27pm on 03 Nov 2008, The Stainless Steel Cat wrote:

    QualifiedLoon (7):

    As a gentlecat, I forbear to say.

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  • 11. At 4:06pm on 03 Nov 2008, Chris_Ghoti wrote:

    DMcN dear, I think you're being deliberately obtuse again. I don't particularly want to look at them all; I want to know which of them is which *without* having to look in every single one in order to locate whichever it is that has interesting comments down below the picture-level, and to be able to tell t'other from which without opening and searching all the way through six or seven of them every single time I want just one of those but can't tell which one without the whole palaver.

    OK?

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  • 12. At 4:54pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    pmL 9, "....between DMcN and an idiot...."

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  • 13. At 4:57pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    C_G 11, At present, there are 14 Ottum threads. Unless you like to look at them over and over and over and over, just look at the first one. I prefer TV.

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  • 14. At 5:00pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    testing

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  • 15. At 5:05pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    OK, two went missing. I'll try again. If they get repeated, don't read them.

    pmL 9, "....between DMcN and an idiot...."

    C_G 11, There are currently 14 (fourteen, count 'em) Ottum threads allllll listed together. Just look at the first, unless you like looking at them over and over and over and over. I prefer TV.

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  • 16. At 5:07pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    SPECIAL: Advent 2007 (28), During my search, I discovered my Christmas photos (3) from last year, so I'll need to find different ones for this year.

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  • 17. At 5:16pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    Oh good, Now the other two appear....

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  • 18. At 5:57pm on 03 Nov 2008, Chris_Ghoti wrote:

    DMcN, I don't care about the photographs; it's the comments underneath them, that one can't see without opening that thread and scrolling down, that I might want to look at. Which if they are on one of the nine threads is a bit of a bore when one cannot tell which of the threads is which.

    Your 12, '...there is a...'?

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  • 19. At 6:01pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    C_G 18,
    I'll copy and paste them here.

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  • 20. At 6:03pm on 03 Nov 2008, David_McNickle wrote:

    C_G 18, Here is the first one.

    Lucky Joan Adamson: "Hi - view from my office window in Harefield ..."

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  • 21. At 6:08pm on 03 Nov 2008, Gumrat wrote:

    Have I missed Eddie's comment on the prank played on Palin by the Canadian "Masked Avengers"? This should make Republican voters very, very, very afraid..
    http://snipurl.com/sarkopalin

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  • 22. At 6:13pm on 03 Nov 2008, Screamingmuldoon wrote:

    Jonathan Ross's salary probably pays for Shaun's luau. Why is the BBC so obsessive about the US election? Yes, it is important, but come on! I'm with Gore Vidal who, in an interview with an over-excited Mark Lawson back when Obama and Clinton were theoretically slugging it out, said (paraphrasing) "Who cares? It doesn't matter who wins, the Republicans will steal the election, like they usually do." I wonder if they dare this time, what with how we all dealt with Zimbabwe. Bet the Repubs are quaking.

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  • 23. At 6:23pm on 03 Nov 2008, Gumrat wrote:

    I presume my comment at 21 is in moderation because I put a link in. I was just remarking that I'm surprised not to have heard PM comment on the wonderful prank played on Palin by the Canadian "Masked Avengers", which should send late-deciding voters over to Obama if nothing else does.
    Check out "Palin prank Sarkozy" on You Tube, or google, if you haven't heard it..

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  • 24. At 6:24pm on 03 Nov 2008, Gumrat wrote:

    I'm not a new member, I've been on the Beeb message boards for years.

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  • 25. At 6:45pm on 03 Nov 2008, Chris_Ghoti wrote:

    DMcN @ 19 and 20, you're all heart! (flubba flubba flubba flubba....)

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  • 26. At 11:03pm on 03 Nov 2008, Diablo34 wrote:

    Here we go again. Another jaunt for BBC radio and TV staff to fly off on the licence fee payers credit card. Why? The BBC already have excellent reporters on 'site'. I really do think the BBC has gone over the top with the 'Yank' elections.

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