Autumn blast on its way

Friday 21 September 2012, 16:12

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

A deep area of low pressure looks set to dominate our weather late in the weekend and into next week as the official start of autumn (which is the 22nd September this year, defined as the day the sun crosses the equator into the southern hemisphere) coincides nicely with the first meteorological blast of the season.

The track of this low pressure is still open to question, and has been causing real problems for forecasters in the last few days.

It's down in part to ex-hurricane Nadine which is in the mid-Atlantic near the Azores.

Computer models invariably struggle to handle these storms because such systems are relatively small but intense, and as such can be difficult to model with any consistency.

What Nadine does in the next few hours will help determine where an associated area of low pressure will develop and track, drawing in some of Nadine's warm sub-tropical air, hence the uncertainty regarding the timing and location of potentially heavy rain and strong winds for the UK.

The chart below is the best estimate of its position at midday on Monday, based on the UK Met Office Global model.



The current best estimate for our area is for the heavy rain to hold off until late Sunday, with much of next week then very unsettled, at times windy, with showers or longer spells of rain.

On a more positive note, if timings remain the same, it does mean that much of this weekend across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire will be fine and sunny, albeit cold at night with a risk of rural frost.

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    Comment number 1.

    Hi Paul. that's a pretty big call. NADINE has been on a holding pattern south of the Azores unable to make up it's mind for some days now.
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143657.shtml?5-daynl. The USNHS consensus forecast is for the remnants to be somewhere WNW of the Cape Verde Islands come Wednesday. Are you sure you've got the right week?

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    Comment number 2.

    I hope you are right about it being a nice weekend for my sins i'm in Skegness!
    #grumpyoldman58 correct me if I'm mistaken, but Paul isn't saying Nadine is coming our way, but is playing a part in where another area of low pressure heading for the UK will form and develop.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Is it advisable to get some Braising Steak and Stew meat in then maybe some Lamb for a Hotpot or are we likely to be on salads again early October like last year

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    "The track of this low pressure is still open to question, and has been causing real problems for forecasters in the last few days."
    24 hours ago, the web forecast for the NE said there was going to be heavy rain and strong winds today, but neither haver materialised.
    The strong winds forecasted for Monday appear to have been delayed until Tuesday.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    We have already had a touch of rural frost here a couple of nights ago. Only ground frost so far. Seems like a fairly chilly early autumn is setting in. Going by natural "signs" I am guessing this year as a whole will turn out to be the coolest for some time unless there is a dramatic change very soon.

    #4 - we had quite a bit of rain today.

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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