Wednesday snow - how much where you are?

Tuesday 12 February 2013, 16:08

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Milder air is poised to push across all areas by Thursday, but as it does so there’s likely to be a spell of snow for most parts of our region tomorrow.


An Atlantic weather front is expected to bring sleet and snow from the west through Wednesday afternoon, although there is a risk that it could reach Pennine areas by the end of tomorrow morning.


Current timings have the snow reaching coastal areas by the end of tomorrow afternoon, but here amounts of snow will be small.


By Wednesday evening most of the snow, especially on low ground, will have turned to rain, but not before approximately 2-4 cms has settled in quite a few places.


Over higher ground (mainly Pennines) at elevations of 200 metres (600ft) or more, around 10cms of snow is possible.


Trans-Pennine routes in-particular could be adversely affected with heavy snow for a time in the afternoon.


By Thursday there’ll be a very different, milder feel to the weather, even though temperatures will only be close to normal, with some heavy rain at first.


Looking further ahead, with many schools closed next week for February half term, it will come as a relief to parents that weather conditions are likely to become much more settled, with the emphasis on a good deal of dry weather for most of us.  


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  • rate this

    Comment number 1.

    Paul do you think that Peter looks like Blakey off on the buses !!!

  • rate this

    Comment number 2.

    @1 Allan

    That is quite funny - I think if PL wore Blakey's hat then he would be a dead ringer . . . "I hate you Butler" . . .yes I could imagine him in that role!

    And now to Paul's forecast. I think that settling snow tomorrow is only likely on ground above 200m. Although there may be a few flakes in a rain/snow mixture there will be NO accumulations of 2 - 4 cm on lower ground. The 850 temperature is not low enough for 100% snow (below 200m) and therefore settling is out of the question. I don't understand why forecasters are unable to equate a basic indicator such as the 850 to determine more accurately a prediction of settling snow or not.

    Had there been several days of minus 5c there may have been a case to call for some freezing rain (just as hazardous) but not tomorrow.

    Next week does look rather gentle with temperatures at or above mid to late Feb averages.

  • rate this

    Comment number 3.

    At the weekend the met were forecasting a lot of snow Sunday that didn't turn up, expect the reverse this time.

  • rate this

    Comment number 4.

    err - depends where you were Ukip, we had about 7.5 cm here

  • rate this

    Comment number 5.

    Paul is undoubtedly a looker, but should he be using an s at the end of his centimeters?

  • rate this

    Comment number 6.

    Tractor 22. Where is here? In S25 there is still a covering on the ground now, but we only had an inch.

  • rate this

    Comment number 7.

    @ 2 Chris. Lots of snow below 200 m, lots of it settling. Sorry

  • rate this

    Comment number 8.

    Sorry again Chris, at least 3 cm in Lincoln which is somewhere between 2 and 4 if my maths is correct ! Have you heard of the Wet Bulb Freezing Level, thats the better indicator, not the 850 temperature.
    And where's S25 Ukip, cos the met weren't forecasting "a lot of snow" until Sunday evening and then only a few centimetres, except on high ground.

  • rate this

    Comment number 9.

    Milder air (and rain!) has arrived on the north east Irish coast. Garden thermometer reading 8.5C at 8pm with pleasantly mild breeze.

    Should hit you soon.

  • rate this

    Comment number 10.

    Not for the first time Paul you deserve a good deal of credit, your forecast was perfect with the amount of snow (I live in York so at low level). Perhaps others (Chris post 2) should bear that in mind and be less patronising.

    On the subject of the global temperature competition can I make an entry at +0.50C above the 1961-1990 average for 2013 please.

  • rate this

    Comment number 11.

    Horsington, Lincs had about 2cm. I would imagine Paul that half term with lots of snow would suit kids more with lots of snowballing etc..

  • rate this

    Comment number 12.

    Yes - good forecast for us in North Lincs too. Snow about 2cm followed by rain later on - making a right old mess I might add!

    From the last thread there was discussion around whether the sea surface temps would show a drop as a possible reason for the higher than expected monthly anomaly. Looks like regions 3 and 4 burped up a bit of heat. Now showing 0.5C and 0.4C colder than December. There was also a bounce in cloudiness which decreases OLR.

    That large pool of cool sub surface water seems to be ready to pounce. I'll be sticking to my low estimate for this year. (nervously)

  • rate this

    Comment number 13.

    @10 Gadgetfiend.

    I completely agree, Paul's forecast was excellent in both timing and content and my comments relating to low ground snow @2 were wide of the mark.

    At least we can now 'enjoy' at least a few days of reasonable weather.


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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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