Rest of July & early August outlook

Thursday 25 July 2013, 17:10

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Although our weather has turned more unsettled, temperatures remain well above average.

 

To illustrate how warm it has been, at Linton on Ouse in North Yorkshire, up to and including the 24th July, the mean maximum temperature stood at 24.44C which places the month 3rd warmest on record.

 

Of course there is still a week to go but I expect 2013 to maintain its position in 3rd place, taking into account forecast temperatures for the remainder of the month, which would mean, notably, it will be warmer than July 1976, but not as warm as 1983 or 2006 at this particular station.

 

Across the UK there’s been 19 successive days where temperatures have exceeded 28C, which equals the run of warmth recorded in the summer of 1997.

 

But it’s still short of the run set in both the summer of 1975, and 1976.

 

The UK climate seems to have moved into climatologist Professor Hubert Lamb’s second summer phase, which more often than not develops during the latter stages of July and lasts into August, which he described in his work as ‘thundery and cyclonic’.

 

He paints a picture of a period of changeable weather, still with fine and warm weather at times, but interspersed with heavy showers which can be thundery.

 

Judging by forecast charts for the rest of July and into early August, it’s a fair summary of what lies ahead.

 

 

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Comments

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  • rate this
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    Comment number 1.

    "He paints a picture of a period of changeable weather, still with fine and warm weather at times, but interspersed with heavy showers which can be thundery.

    Judging by forecast charts for the rest of July and into early August, it’s a fair summary of what lies ahead."

    Sounds good enough, hope it plays out, not too heavy with the showers!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    When was this picture painted?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    Enjoying the warm weather but the Met Office has issued a weather warning for this weekend in my region of the Midlands with possible flash floods like those we had on Tuesday.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    UK-wide record temperature for July was 17.8C, set in 2006. This July could be close.

    Southern areas have been warm, but the heatwave this July started in the north and north west and moved south.

    We might see some regional records pushed, if not the UK-wide one.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    "He paints a picture of a period of changeable weather.."

    Tis good, I do hope he didn't "paint" a subsequent month long period of high pressure in mid winter!

  • rate this
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    Comment number 6.

    Off topic but .... has there ever been a less accurate weather forecast than today's? A washout was predicted here in West Kent from 11am onwards. As I write it is after 5pm and all we have had is a short shower. Sunny most of the day and still sunny!!
    Do the Met Office have a problem with rain from the south?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 7.

    This MAY be the driest July on record. Though some localised areas in England might get three inches of rain during the course of tonight and early tomorrow morning.

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    Comment number 8.

    fudsdad

    Today's forecast is what some BBC weather presenters have been calling a 'headache' for some days. But I've just seen both this and this:
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/ (for 6 pm)
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=ne&fcTime=1374966000 (amber rain warning for one region of England)

  • rate this
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    Comment number 9.

    #6.Fudsdad

    "Off topic but .... has there ever been a less accurate weather forecast than today's? A washout was predicted here in West Kent from 11am onwards. As I write it is after 5pm and all we have had is a short shower. Sunny most of the day and still sunny!!
    Do the Met Office have a problem with rain from the south?"

    Are you referring to MO 5 day forecasts on their website?
    If so, I don't consider them to be "fit for purpose", as they say, not because of the MO forecasting accuracy but because of problems with the display format.
    Essentially this is because they try to be more precise than they are capable of for a particular location.
    For example, from the limited comparisons I have done, the weather symbols, e.g "sunny", "heavy rain", "cloudy", are only about 25% accurate.
    At the moment they are not forecasting any thunderstorms for where I live, but judging from the BBC weather forecast, I am expecting some.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 10.

    8.ashleyhr

    Have to agree with you. In N Ireland we were promised frequent heavy thundery showers (known locally as a 'thunder-plump').

    Two nights ago I went to the trouble of putting tarpaulin over my garden table and chairs and setting up my trusty rain gauge. What little rain that fell has since evaporated, for the gauge remains bone dry.

    Tonight is very warm and humid. Hardly a breath of air. Not a thunder-plump in sight.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 11.

    Heavy rain and thunderstorms for a few hours now in the Midlands.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 12.

    #7.ashleyhr

    "This MAY be the driest July on record. Though some localised areas in England might get three inches of rain during the course of tonight and early tomorrow morning."

    A total of about 40mm so far in my particular location on the NE coast, and it seems fairly consistent over the region as far as I can tell.
    If this is typical of the country as a whole, it won't be the driest July on record, even though the fact that most of it has come in a short period at the end of the month will be seen by some as further evidence of "weird weather".
    It just seems like a typical UK summer to me.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 13.

    The very heavy falls of rain - I've heard of totals of around two inches in Leicestershire last night - would probably have to be very widespread to make this month other than the driest July on record, 'beating' 30.6 mm in 1955, I think (but there are still several days to go and other heavy falls may yet occur). I don't know if UK rainfall data up to and including 27 July can be viewed on the Met Office website anywhere yet; it looks to me like either this month will be very slightly drier than 1955 or very slightly wetter than 1955 but still second driest - but that's just a hunch from someone without access to the relevant data.

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    Comment number 14.

    I don't think the MO publish daily UK rainfall figures, even for individual observation sites.
    However, Philip Eden maintains daily figures for England & Wales (althogh I am not sure of the source), which suggests that July was already above the driest on record by the 25th.

    http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

    See the link to "How is July shaping up?"

    There may be information on the source of the figures on the site somewhere.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 15.

    Sorry, I didn't look closely enough at the Philip Eden site.
    Of course the figures are weekly, not daily.

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    Comment number 16.

    6.
    Fudsdad

    "Off topic but .... has there ever been a less accurate weather forecast than today's?"

    This particular weekend weather must have been a mare to predict. Our area in the Midlands has an amber warning by the MO for heavy showers. I was in town yesterday and it was fine and dry, but when I got the bus home, about 5 miles, I went through two areas that obviously had heavy rain, though not raining at the time. It was dry in between and home had been fine and dry too.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 17.

    Yes like many summers before we now enter the cyclonic period of thunder storms and sunny days. With humidity and atmospheric heat building instability will increase giving way to summer storms.

    Severe thunder storms are not too good for wind turbines.

    I still cannot understand the fixation with UK temperature records which are beaten by mid European records every year. We live on a small NW European island of no significance when global weather is considered.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 18.

    June HadCRUT4 figures published at last:

    Global = 0.452c, compared with 0.497c in May
    NH = 0.605c, compared with 0.628c in May
    SH = 0.299c, compared with 0.366c in May

    As I suspected, the HadCRUT4 figures show similar falls to those in NCDC/NOAA although actually slightly large falls for the global and SH anomalies.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 19.

    HadCRUT4 for June 2013 globally +0.452. Makes it the 10th warmest June in HadCRUT4 (started 1850), but down slightly on May. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/

    NH was down slightly, but the biggest fall appears to have been in the tropics, down from +0.45 in May to +0.31 in June. SSTs in the eastern Pacific appear to have played a role in this.

    Annual to date for HadCRUT4 is now 0.45, making it the 9th warmest 'year-to-date' in HadCRUT4.

    The WMO figure for 2013 is now 0.47, versus the Met Office estimate of 0.57 for the whole year. 0.47 at the lower end of the forecast range of 0.43 - 0.71.

    Compared to the four other data producers for June 2013, HadCRUT4 (adjusted to the 1981-2010 base period) was at the lower end of the range. These were as follows:

    UAH: 0.23
    RSS: 0.15
    NOAA: 0.18
    NASA: 0.18
    HadCRUT4: 0.16

  • rate this
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    Comment number 20.

    #19.newdwr54

    "The WMO figure for 2013 is now 0.47, versus the Met Office estimate of 0.57 for the whole year. 0.47 at the lower end of the forecast range of 0.43 - 0.71. "

    Effectively the MO were saying that 0.71c was equally as likely as 0.43c.
    When I specifically asked them if that was what they were saying, they put it the other way around, i.e. that both were very unlikely, but it all depended upon El Nino.
    However, I still contend that it was nonsense to say that 0.71c was as liklely as 0.43c, since the higher figure would have required the temperature to be 0.16c higher than the warmest year on record.
    I know which figure I would rather have my money on.

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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