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Thursday 4 April 2013, 17:38

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

Cold easterly reluctant to give way

 

After a prolonged spell of cold weather throughout much of February and March, dominated by high pressure to the north of the UK and easterly winds, the Atlantic will slowly try to assert itself through next week.

 

But there’s considerable uncertainty about the timing of any change, with easterly winds in some models reluctant to give way.  For example the EC model brings an Atlantic low next week on a more southerly track, delaying the onset of any proper mild air until the following weekend.

 

The general consensus though is for there to be a slow change to less cold conditions from about the middle of next week across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, albeit with some rain.

 

 

March 2013

 

March in the end, based on provisional Central England Temperature (CET) figures first started in 1659, was even colder than I first predicted, becoming the coldest since 1892 – just beating 1962.

 

According to the Met Office, based on their modern but much shorter UK data set which began in 1910, March was the equal second coldest (with 1947), only beaten by March 1962.

 

Interestingly, March 2013 was colder than any of the preceding winter months of December, January and February, for the first time since 1975.  

 

Global temperatures

 

According to the UAH satellite measure, global temperatures in March were virtually the same as in February, with an anomaly of +0.184C above the 30 year running average.

 

This equates to an anomaly of 0.437C above the more standard 1961-1990 measure.

 

It illustrates once more that despite extreme cold across the UK and much of Europe, this was not reflected globally.  

 

Indeed other areas have been much warmer than average, including not for the first time Greenland and the Arctic.

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    Comment number 1.

    Interesting that March was colder than the preceeding months. The first time this has happened in nearly 40 years. I wonder how often it has actually happened in the record in total?

    It does seem that we were unlucky, with most temperartures being above average globally, even in the NH.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    When my grandma used to get cold in the winter she would simply move the thermometer closer to the Aga thus getting a higher temperature and ignoring the thermometer on the outside toilet door.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    time to re-settle Greenland? it will be just like the balmy old days of the MWP

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    Paul it is not surprising that the Arctic and Greenland have been warmer than normal which is due to the -NAO. The anticyclone centred over Scandinavia which brought the cold weather over NW Europe was also responsible for dragging up milder air from the North Atlantic over Greenland & the Arctic. The effects of +NAO would have been the exact opposite. What is becoming more apparent over recent years is the colder winters & wetter cooler summers of which coincides with lower solar activity which i believe is the main driver of the earths climate and temperature. Also is it not true that the prevailing winds are the main driver of the ocean currents and as a consequence of shifts in the jet stream alter the direction and reduce the flow rate thus increasing a future cooling trend. Interestingly the previous record low March temperatures (CET) was just after the Dalton Minimum and Little Ice Age periods.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    "According to the UAH satellite measure......

    .....It illustrates once more that despite extreme cold across the UK and much of Europe, this was not reflected globally.

    !ndeed other areas have been much warmer than average, including not for the first time Greenland and the Arctic"

    Interesting, UAH March 2013 data:-

    North Polar (60N-85N) +0.21C

    North Ext (20N-85N) +0.37C

    Therefore according to the UAH March data the latitude zone 20N-60N, which includes the UK and Europe, was considerably more above average than Greenland and the Arctic?

    http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

    GL 85S-85N, NH 0-85N, SH 85S-0, TRPCS 20S-20N
    NoExt 20N-85N, SoExt 85S-20S, NoPol 60N-85N, SoPol 85S-60S

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_parallel_north

 

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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