Exceptional July weather coming to an abrupt end

Monday 22 July 2013, 21:58

Paul Hudson Paul Hudson

July so far has been exceptionally dry, warm and sunny, but a notable change in the weather is expected in the next 36 hours.

 

At Linton-on-Ouse in North Yorkshire, less than 2mm of rain has fallen so far this month.

 

It’s fair to say that farmers and gardeners are now very keen for rain, although reservoir stocks are still healthy in Yorkshire following last summer’s washout.

 

The hot spell has, understandably, dominated the media.

 

It has been the only prolonged hot spell since July 2006 – which itself turned out to be the hottest July on record on Met Office figures which date back to 1910.

 

Temperatures at Heathrow and Northolt this afternoon reached 33.5C (93F) making it the hottest day anywhere in the UK since July 20th 2006.

 

But the spell of hot weather has not been in the same league as that recorded during the record-breaking summer of 1976.

 

That year, temperatures were higher than 32C (90F) for 15 consecutive days from late June to early July somewhere in the UK.

 

That said, with temperatures soaring again today, we’ve had 17 consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 28C, equalling the sequence set in 1995, but not as long as the sequence set in 1997 (19 days)

 

In 1976, there were 22 such days.

 

But with the jet stream expected to slip southwards from its current position, the weather will be more unsettled for the rest of July and into early August.

 

Warnings are in place for the next 36 hours, as developing thunderstorms could lead to local flooding as a result of torrential rain falling on to the sun-baked land.

 

After the thundery breakdown it will though remain warm into the weekend, and although more unsettled, there will still be some sunshine at times - together with a risk of further heavy showers.

 

Here in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire next week could feel very different, with temperatures closer to normal for the time of the year as low pressure dominates the our weather bringing rain to most areas.

 

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    Comment number 1.

    Recently the importance of the jet stream in weather forecasting seems to have new significance. Why?

  • rate this
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    Comment number 2.

    I suspect that the jetstream has always been significant, it's just that we didn't know it was.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 3.

    From the previous blog topic:

    #132.newdwr54

    "US NOAA/NCDC is suggesting June 2013 was 0.64 warmer than the 20th century average for June. That would make it the 5th warmest June in the NOAA record started 1880. The official data set hasn't been updated as yet and there are usually small changes to past temperatures which might affect this.

    Based on the 1981-2010 anomaly base period, the data sets so far reporting are NOAA: 0.22; UAH: 0.30; NASA: 0.28 and RSS: 0.19. HadCRUT4 still to report."

    You didn't mention that NCDC/NOAA actually shows a fall in the global anomaly between May and June, mainly due to a fall in the SH anomaly, compared to a big rise in GISS, UAH and RSS.

    I think the difference must be due to different methods of calculating Antarctic temperature anomalies. Judging from the relative maps, GISS has far more "coverage" of the Antarctic than NCDC/NOAA and last month, large parts were below normal while this month they are mostly above normal.

    Based on the NCDC/NOAA anomaly, it is possible that HadCRUT4 will also show a global and SH fall for June.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 4.

    From the previous topic:

    #141.greensand

    "QV, have you seen an update of the UAH "zonal" data for June? Of late I have been using:-"

    That's the link I use too, it sometimes takes a while for it to be updated.

  • rate this
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    Comment number 5.

    "It has been the only prolonged hot spell since July 2006 – which itself turned out to be the hottest July on record on Met Office figures which date back to 1910."

    If the Met Office figures only date back to 1910 who is it that compiles and publishes the CET figures? Have they subbed it out? Can't understand why it is not mentioned that July 2006 was the "hottest" in 354 CET years?

 

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Rest of July & early August outlook

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Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. 

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I worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for nearly 15 years locally and at the international unit, after graduating with first class honours in Geophysics and Planetary physics at the University of Newcastle upon Tyne in 1992. I then joined the BBC in October 2007, where I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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