Weather

Friday will see the heat returning to Yorkshire and Lincolnshire.

On Tuesday Linton-on-Ouse recorded 28.7C (84F) making it the hottest day in our region of the year so far, and there’s a chance that temperatures on Friday, perhaps again somewhere in the Vale of York, will be slightly higher still.

The fundamental difference with atmospheric weather patterns at the moment is that the jet stream is well to the north of the UK, completely the opposite to last year when the jet stream at times was so far south that it ran through parts of France.

With Friday’s heat there’s an outside chance of a thunderstorm, but the risk is higher on Saturday as a weak cold front edges southwards across the area, introducing some instability.

That said most places on Saturday will stay dry and very warm.

Sunday looks a little fresher but fine and still warm with sunny spells.

As regards the rest of the July, current indications are that the jet stream is likely to remain to the north of us for much of the month.

This means that the general picture looks set to be one of fine weather.

Weak weather fronts may try and move in from the Atlantic, but with pressure high, they will lose much of their activity as they push south-eastwards.

A weak weather front may produce a little patchy light rain around the middle of next week for example, but other than that another predominantly dry week is expected

Further ahead it’s impossible to give day to day detail, but overall I now expect July as a whole to be a very dry, warm and sunny month, dominated by high pressure.

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Comments

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  • Comment number 141. Posted by greensand

    on 18 Jul 2013 22:45

    QV, have you seen an update of the UAH "zonal" data for June? Of late I have been using:-

    http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

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  • Comment number 140. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 18 Jul 2013 22:32

    #124.John Marshall

    "The Amazon rainforest is not millions of years old it started to grow as such when climate change after the last ice age meant that conditions became suitable for such growth."

    Did I say that?
    It must have been the heat!

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  • Comment number 139. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 18 Jul 2013 22:29

    #134.ashleyhr

    "I didn't watch the Sunday Politics debate but Andrew Neil is well known for being something of a climate change sceptic."

    That's right, don't watch anything which might disagree with your beliefs.

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  • Comment number 138. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 18 Jul 2013 22:26

    Does anyone know if anyone forecasted the current warm spell?

    Given the predictions of a "double peak" solar maximum, it might be expected that someone like Piers Corbyn might have done so but I haven't seen anything that I recall.

    Also, looking at historic CET data, it does appear that there is a general upward trend in July CET. This month looks like it *might* be only the third July with a mean over 19c, after 2006 and 1983 and the 30 year mean is only slightly down from an all time high in 2011.
    That being the case, I wonder why the MO didn't forecast a higher probability of it being a warmer than average July. Are they begining to lose confidence in their own ability to forecast?

    I presume that the Jetstream was North of the UK in 1983 and 2006, although of course, high SSN wouldn't really explain, because the cycle wasn't at a peak in those years.

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  • Comment number 137. Posted by greensand

    on 18 Jul 2013 20:24

    "DEEP-C project"

    The Diagnosing Earth's Energy Pathways in the Climate system (DEEP-C) consortium is a 4-year project that is tackling the questions:

    (1) What mechanisms explain the reduced global surface warming rate since around 2000

    (2) Where is the excess energy due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations currently accumulating in the climate system?

    We are using satellite observations, measurements below the sea surface (including the deep ocean) and detailed simulations of the atmosphere and ocean, combining expertise from the University of Reading, the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) ¬ Southampton and the Met Office........

    http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~sgs02rpa/research/DEEP-C.html
    ----------------------------------
    "(2) Where is the excess energy due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations currently accumulating in the climate system?"

    Where? is "DEEP-C" a possible clue to where they think it is? I have no doubt that in 4 years time they will have found something! But the real interesting bit will surely be:-

    "(1) What mechanisms explain the reduced global surface warming rate since around 2000"

    Not only what the actual "mechanisms" are, but especially, why the "mechanisms" chose "around 2000" to come into play. Looking forward to the outcome!

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  • Comment number 136. Posted by unhappy

    on 18 Jul 2013 17:49

    Why does the BBC show us the weather for scotland ireland and wales to us living in the SE of England? We're not interested and I am sure the peoples of Scotland are not interested in our weather
    Show the full UK map with projections of rain etc and then end.

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  • Comment number 135. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 18 Jul 2013 17:27

    126 Lazarus

    The science is conclusive but uncertainties remain. Riddle me another from the prayer book, ha ha ha.

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  • Comment number 134. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 18 Jul 2013 16:43

    I didn't watch the Sunday Politics debate but Andrew Neil is well known for being something of a climate change sceptic.

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  • Comment number 133. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 18 Jul 2013 16:28

    The UK media don't seem to have noticed that 90 F was reached at Hampton, probably because the report of 32.0 C (which is just short of 90 F) at Northolt emerged earlier in the evening.

    There's now a report on the Telegraph website that the Met Office think or fear that 35 Celsius could be recorded next week. So during the space of one single calendar month we could go from the 81 F of 30 June (the first time 80 F was achieved in 2013) to as high as 95 F. This sort of temperature would be most likely somewhere in a broad zone from London westwards towards Devon and the Welsh Marches. The fact that the ground surface is now so dry (though water supplies are not yet threatened thanks to 2012) is likely to make it easier for heat to build up further if there are no widespread thundery downpours.

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  • Comment number 132. Posted by newdwr54

    on 18 Jul 2013 16:21

    US NOAA/NCDC is suggesting June 2013 was 0.64 warmer than the 20th century average for June. That would make it the 5th warmest June in the NOAA record started 1880. The official data set hasn't been updated as yet and there are usually small changes to past temperatures which might affect this.

    Based on the 1981-2010 anomaly base period, the data sets so far reporting are NOAA: 0.22; UAH: 0.30; NASA: 0.28 and RSS: 0.19. HadCRUT4 still to report.

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