Weather

Weather and climate round-up

First taste of winter next week:

After a mild autumn so far, the UK is about to experience its first taste of winter next week.

Cold air is expected to flood southwards across the UK from Tuesday.

As it meets the relatively warm sea vigorous convection is expected, with the risk of heavy showers - even thunderstorms in some coastal areas.

For our region, showers that develop are likely to fall as snow down to quite low levels at times, with accumulations in places – especially over the North York moors and Wolds.

There will though be big variations with some inland areas seeing a lot of dry and sunny weather, but with frost at night.

All in all, this early taste of winter is pretty normal for late November and by no means exceptional.

NASA: Weakest sun for 200 years

There’s been more this week on the unusual behaviour of the sun that I’ve written about regularly on this blog.

NASA solar scientist David Hathaway is quoted in the Wall Street Journal saying the sun is in its quietest state for 200 years.

Read the full article by clicking HERE

Possible reason for ‘slowdown’ in global warming

Research out this week points the finger at reduced levels of CFC gases in the atmosphere following a ban on their use in the 1980s as a possible reason for the levelling off of global temperatures in the last 15 years or so.

CFCs, widely used in fridges and freezers until they were banned in 1987, are 10,000 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

You can read more on this HERE

Follow me on twitter @Hudsonweather

END

Comments

This entry is now closed for comments.

  • Comment number 51. Posted by newdwr54

    on 21 Nov 2013 17:10

    49. RobWansbeck

    "The simple fact is that most models have too high a climate sensitivity and this can no longer be hidden by natural variability."

    That's by no means a "fact", it's an opinion. The AR5 report states that it's one possibility in some of the models. But it states with greater confidence that internal decadal variability (volcanic activity and downward phase of the solar cycle) caused the main difference between observations and simulations.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 51: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 51: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 50. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 20 Nov 2013 22:56

    Cold end to November expected for CET

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 50: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 50: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 49. Posted by RobWansbeck

    on 20 Nov 2013 21:42

    @48, newdwr54,

    Oh no, not the Tamino Bodge!

    Even that wasn't enough so they tipped a bowl of spaghetti over the graph just to make sure.

    The simple fact is that most models have too high a climate sensitivity and this can no longer be hidden by natural variability. The IPCC has had to resort to bodges and throwing their food around.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 49: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 49: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 48. Posted by newdwr54

    on 20 Nov 2013 20:04

    47. RobWansbeck

    Discussion of why SOD fig. 1.5 was excised here: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/12/20/fake-skeptic-draws-fake-picture-of-global-temperature/

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 48: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 48: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 47. Posted by RobWansbeck

    on 20 Nov 2013 14:35

    The problem with the SOD figure 1.5 was that it wasn't confusing; it had to go.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 47: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 47: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 46. Posted by newdwr54

    on 19 Nov 2013 11:37

    45. ukpahonta

    I wonder why Steve McIntyre is still using graphs from the second order draft (SOD) of the IPCC AR5 report instead of from the final draft?

    For instance, SOD Fig. 1.5 was completely excised from the final draft as it confusingly aligned everything (both smoothed projections and actual observations) to a single year's temperature, 1990. Yet Steve still uses SOD 1.5 at every opportunity.

    SOD Fig. 11.12 was also radically amended in the final draft. Ed Hawkins has updated the final draft version of Fig. 11.12 with the C&W data here: https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/402746825897046016/photo/1

    It looks quite different from McIntyre's presentation.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 46: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 46: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 45. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 18 Nov 2013 22:47

    Steve McIntyre has a quick look at the hiatus:
    http://climateaudit.org/2013/11/18/cotwan-and-way-2013

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 45: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 45: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 44. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 18 Nov 2013 19:54

    One of the latest garbage weather predictions from the cynical Daily Express (Wednesday's low is to cross further to the east than even the Met Office originally thought thus lowland areas almost certainly will not see any lying snow before the precipitation turns entirely back to rain).
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/443381/Six-inches-of-snow-to-hit-Britain-next-week-as-Arctic-blast-sends-temperatures-plummeting
    An alarmist and wrong front page forecast sells more newspapers - to the ignorant - than a balanced and accurate front page forecast.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 44: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 44: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 43. Posted by newdwr54

    on 18 Nov 2013 17:44

    41. lateintheday

    As far as I know UAH is working on its V6.0, which hopefully will address some of those issues.

    BTW, NCDC is showing 0.63 for October on its web site; tied with September, which dropped from the 0.64 published last month.

    Also, they seem to have removed their main global temp. data page. I had to update the latest data by selecting each month in turn from the 'Climate at a Glance' page. A misnomer if ever there was one!

    0.63 (if it turns out to be right) would be the 7th warmest Oct in the NCDC data set and keeps 2013 'to-date' as 7th warmest Jan-Oct.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 43: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 43: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 42. Posted by newdwr54

    on 18 Nov 2013 17:34

    40. ukpahonta

    "What about Antarctic temperatures, any mention?"

    It's a good point. Antarctic (SoPol) temperatures have risen at a rate of 0.32 deg C per decade since1998 according to UAH. Not sure how this affects the findings of the recent Cowtan and Way paper though.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 42: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 42: 0
    Loading…
More comments

More Posts

Previous

Next