Weather

More on highest tidal surge since 1953 and December outlook

TIDAL SURGE

The tidal surge which affected the east coast last week was the biggest since the historic coastal flood of January 1953 according to the Environment Agency.

In 1953 hundreds of people lost their lives. In Lincolnshire the sea came inland by 3 miles in the area around Sutton on Sea and Mablethorpe.

There is little doubt that the flood defences developed and built since the 1953 flood prevented a national emergency on Thursday night.

The Environment Agency says that flood defences now in place protected 800,000 properties along our coastline.

In Hull, the tidal barrier constructed in 1980 stopped the tidal surge which would otherwise have flooded 18,000 homes.

At its peak, the sea level recorded at the barrier measured 5.8m – the highest on record – and only 20cms from its top

Spurn Head has been badly damaged. According to the Yorkshire Wildlife Trust the entire dune system has been moved 70 yards to the west, which, according to them, is a staggering 200 years of movement in 24 hours.

DECEMBER OUTLOOK

There’s now a strong signal that high pressure over the continent will decline, allowing low pressure from the Atlantic to dominate the UK’s weather later this week, lasting at least into the Christmas period.

This means we can expect periods of wind and rain, interspersed with brighter, showery conditions throughout the next two weeks.

There is no signal at all for any proper cold spell, although it is perfectly normal, especially later in December, for the air coming in from the west to be cold enough to allow some wintry precipitation - for example in showers following a cold front - mainly over the hills in northern Britain.

Comments

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  • Comment number 62. Posted by JaimeJ

    on 17 Dec 2013 22:25

    @newdwr #61

    As I pointed out, a general warming trend has been evident since the end of the LIA and a more vigorous warming trend has been operative for much of the satellite data era. Attribution is the key issue. You seem to imply that because "yet another" all-time (satellite era) instrument record warm month has been set, this is somehow evidence of a continuing global warming trend. It's not. 5/5 current 5 year trends are negative. 3/5 10 year trends are negative, only one positive. Furthermore, if you are looking for evidence of solar-induced cooling on top of the current cyclic cooling, then look at this graph of hadcrut4 100 year trend analysis:

    http://www.climate4you.com/images/HadCRUT4%20100yearTrendAnalysis.gif

    Note the very sharp downturn since 2005 as compared with the much more gradual oscillatory downturns in previous years, going back to Nov 1913. This may of course be a feature of more accurate measurements in latter years; it may not. But we can say that the short term trend is downwards, it is nowhere near concurring with IPCC extrapolated trends and it may indeed turn out to be the start of a long term downward trend, considering where we are with solar activity.

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  • Comment number 61. Posted by newdwr54

    on 17 Dec 2013 20:57

    59. JaimeJ

    ".. the fact is, since 2005, 4 out of 5 datasets show that the world is cooling."

    Yes, that is a fact Jamie. But it's also a fact that over the past 15 years 5/5 data sets show warming. You can push it back to 17 years and discover 1/5 data sets, RSS (which doesn't cover most of the Arctic and practically none of the Antarctic) that shows cooling.

    But take it beyond 17 years and again everything shows warming. Much beyond that and you start to find statistically significant warming. By well before 30 years you find statistically significant warming in every data set we have, even including those that don't account for the poles.

    We've been hearing since the early 2000s that solar induced cooling is about to start. And yet here we are in late 2013 with *yet another* all-time instrument record warm month, soon to be followed by a top 5 or 6 instrument record warmest year; and all this when PDO and ENSO are apparently keeping heat locked in the oceans.

    Recently the important ENSO 3.4 area running average has nosed above zero for the first time in months/years. That will have a knock-on effect on global surface temperatures for months to come, even if it doesn't last.

    If Neil Hamp is around, then I'll be putting money on at least +0.55C for HadCRUT4 in 2014. Neil, if your still around and interested, chalk me up!

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  • Comment number 60. Posted by newdwr54

    on 17 Dec 2013 20:40

    NOAA/NCDC formally confirm the NASA/GISS view that November 2013 was the warmest November on record globally since 1880: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/11/

    2013 (Jan-Nov) is now the 4th warmest year-to-date on record globally according to NOAA; joint 6th warmest according to NASA.

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  • Comment number 59. Posted by JaimeJ

    on 17 Dec 2013 16:27

    We can argue forever about the significance, or otherwise of extreme weather events, about ice loss and gain, about local cooling and warming trends etc., but the fact is, since 2005, 4 out of 5 datasets show that the world is cooling.

    It is true that, since the Little Ice Age, the world has warmed continuously. Superimposed upon this general upward trend are the oscillatory effects of the major oceanic cycles, switching from positive to negative and back again, in particular the PDO. Since 1979/80, the world warmed rapidly and the IPCC hijacked this trend and said it was due to man-made CO2. Inconveniently for them, however, the modelled exponential anthropogenic warming has diverged significantly from reality post 1998 and even more so post 2005, when cooling set in.

    What we are left to ponder is, will the cooling post 2005 turn out to be short lived, following the curve of the natural oscillatory forcing, with the underlying warming trend remaining unchanged, or will a general cooling trend set in? If, as suspected, the general warming trend was due to solar influences, we can expect a fairly pronounced and rather long term cooling trend if solar activity remains low or dips further on into Cycle 25 and beyond. Nobody can really answer this question with any high degree of scientific certainty at the moment, but what is certain is that rapid and accelerating man-made warming is failing to materialise and, in all likehihood, will continue to fail to appear because the modelled effects of CO2 grossly over-estimated the importance of this weak greenhouse gas.

    http://joannenova.com.au/2013/03/has-the-world-started-cooling-hints-from-4-of-5-global-temperature-sets-say-it-might-have/

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  • Comment number 58. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 17 Dec 2013 13:53

    CET above 7C.... in December!

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  • Comment number 57. Posted by greensand

    on 17 Dec 2013 13:33

    ukpahonta

    Thanks for the links will try and take a look.

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  • Comment number 56. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 17 Dec 2013 11:20

    greensand

    Sorry, minor break from brushing up on history, interesting though:
    http://climatehistory.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Environmental-History-2010-Gergis-envhis_emq079.pdf
    http://www.issw.ch/info/mitarbeitende/frank/Raspopov_etal_PPP_2008.pdf

    All leading from post up at Anthony's:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/17/solar-amo-pdo-cycles-combined-reproduce-the-global-climate-of-the-past/

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  • Comment number 55. Posted by greensand

    on 17 Dec 2013 09:56

    53. ukpahonta

    Aw shucks UK, you beat me to it!

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  • Comment number 54. Posted by lateintheday

    on 17 Dec 2013 09:28

    GS - the thought police are out again displaying a touch of paranoia that comes from reading between the lines too often.

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  • Comment number 53. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 17 Dec 2013 08:10

    #51 newdwr54

    Yes there is a long term trend, there was a great deal more ice extent during the last ice age, and there will be during the next one.

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