Cold to follow latest deluge

A welcome change to drier but colder weather is likely as we head through this week following heavy rainfall since Saturday night which is once again testing flood defences across the county.

November is continuing a remarkable run of wet weather, becoming the 8th successive month where rainfall has been above average, a sequence which began in April.

Rainfall has not yet been of the same magnitude as that which caused the River Ouse to rise just short of record levels in September, when 100mm fell in 50 hours at Leeming, 76mm of that in just 24 hours.

So far at the same station 52mm had been recorded in the 40 hours to 1200 today - still a lot of rain though - equating to a month's worth in less than 2 days.

Normally, this wouldn't cause problems with river flooding, but because the land is so saturated in what is already one of the wettest years on record, rivers have risen faster and higher than would normally have been the case.

Another 10-20 mm of rain is expected generally in the next 18 hours across Yorkshire, with additional totals as high as 50mm across some higher Pennine and North York moor river catchments.

Through this week somewhat colder air is expected to spread southwards as pressure starts to rise.

This will result in weather systems being 'blocked' from moving eastwards across the country, at least in the short term.

The good news is that this means weather conditions will become much drier generally, although showers are still expected more especially in eastern areas exposed to the northerly breeze.

Frosts will develop inland from mid-week and some of the showers will become wintry, more especially over the hills, although they are not expected to cause a problem.

Looking further ahead into early December, there is a split between computer models.

Some want to see a return of the less cold and wetter westerlies (like for example arguably the most reliable ECMWF model), with others keeping colder, drier conditions especially across the North and East of the UK.

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