Weather

After what has turned into a very disappointing August - certainly when compared with June and July - summer will return to much of the country next week.

 

It’s often the case that the weather in early September improves significantly after an unsettled August – as was the case in 2012.

 

There’s relatively high confidence in the scenario too - most computer models develop high pressure for early September – with a suggestion of some very warm air drifting in from the continent later in the week.

 

The American model, for example, has temperatures approaching 80 degrees Fahrenheit across some central and southern areas of the country by Friday, with prolonged sunshine.

 

Longer term, models suggest more unsettled and much cooler conditions may return towards the middle of September – which again would be very similar to the pattern that developed in September 2012.

Comments

This entry is now closed for comments.

  • Comment number 56. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 3 Sept 2014 09:08

    An early release of UAH data for August, showing a fall on July although a rise on last August.

    A big fall in the figures for the SH and tropics.

    Global = 0.199c
    NH = 0.244c
    SH = 0.154c

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 56: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 56: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 55. Posted by newdwr54

    on 2 Sept 2014 09:49

    54. QuaesoVeritas

    Unless there's a big weather event it looks likely that 2014 Arctic sea ice extent will be slightly higher than 2013. At Sept 1st it was 5,213,082 km^2, which is the highest for that date since 2009, though the 7th lowest on record. The long term trend is still clearly downwards.

    According to NCDC the minimum extent set in 2007 (4.17) was followed by two consecutive years of higher extents (4.59 in 2008 and 5.13 in 2009). At the time, this prompted predictions from the usual suspects of a continued and sustained recovery: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/09/prediction-arctic-ice-will-continue-to-recover-this-summer/

    Expect more of the same this year. Just don't expect the same suspects to draw long term conclusions about atmospheric warming based on data starting in 2012.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 55: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 55: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 54. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 2 Sept 2014 08:17

    #43. newdwr54

    "Cryosphere Today's latest area total is 3.9m km^2. Same day in 2012 was 2.5m km^2. The 'increase' is 1.4m km^2. That's 36%, not 60%. Also, 3.9m is 140,000 km^2 below the 2001-2010 average for the date."

    I'm only monitoring JAXA extent at the moment, and a few days ago the extent was almost identical to 2013 and it looked as though the final minimum would be lower than last year.
    Recently however the decline as slowed right down and if that continues this year's extent may be higher.
    We may even see an earlier date for the minimum than last year's Sept. 16th, based on the 7 day mean.
    Having said that, I do think it is slightly disingenuous to be talking of a 2 year increase as Steven Goddard is doing on "Real Science", since most of the increase occurred in 2013.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 54: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 54: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 53. Posted by sjw62

    on 1 Sept 2014 19:16

    @41. John Marshall

    "Never mind the ''return'' of summer, the Arctic ice is back, or at least up to 60% above the area of 2years ago."

    The problem with quoting sea ice in terms of percentages is that the percentages get bigger as the ice gets smaller. If ice declines by 50%, then increases by 60%, the 60% increase is less than the 50% decrease.

    It's also meaningless when comparing year to year values as you expect values to go up and down each year. Last year you were comparing the ice against the previous year and calling it a recovery. This year the extent is pretty much the same as last year, but rather than saying the recovery has stalled you compare against 2012 again. Pure cherry picking.

    "Come on Gore, what is your excuse for being so wrong?"

    Maybe you could ask the same question of Joe Bastardi when he forecast this years summer anomaly would be near or above normal.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 53: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 53: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 52. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 1 Sept 2014 18:42

    The CET for August appears to be confirmed at 14.9c.
    The figure is in the data files but not in the monthly summaries.
    Colder than many years in the 1600's according to the rankings.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 52: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 52: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 51. Posted by newdwr54

    on 1 Sept 2014 18:12

    48. RobWansbeck

    As you said earlier, the differences are very minor. It's just that they're also 'unexplained'.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 51: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 51: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 50. Posted by john_cogger

    on 1 Sept 2014 16:04

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2014/09/01/global_warming_denial_claims_of_arctic_ice_recovering_are_exaggerated.html

    "But saying the ice is “recovering” is, to put it delicately, what comes out the south end of a north-facing bull. You can’t compare two years to a record low the year before that was due to unusual circumstances; you have to look at the average over time"

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 50: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 50: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 49. Posted by Fudsdad

    on 1 Sept 2014 14:19

    With reference to comment 43 above, 1.4 is a 56 percent increase on 2.5! John Marshall is nearly correct. Mind you school is a distant memory!

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 49: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 49: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 48. Posted by RobWansbeck

    on 1 Sept 2014 01:03

    @35, newdwr54 wrote:

    “ Only if you round NH/ SH to 2 d.p 'before' calculating the global figure. As NH/ SH figures are given to 3 d.p., that's what should be used to calculate the global figure: “

    I agree that you shouldn’t round before division and stated that in an earlier post but I had looked at numerous earlier discrepancies and had found that in every case the result could be explained by rounding before division.

    I have now stuck the entire UAH data into a spreadsheet and found that there are examples where the global temperature is not consistent with rounding NH/SH before division so that's the end of my hypothesis unless the rounding itself is not consistent which I doubt.

    The thing is that I know that the website data is updated as per the example that I gave and that it can't rely on the published data since the website data has a higher resolution.

    I tried to find some published higher resolution data but failed so I must join you in your bafflement.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 48: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 48: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 47. Posted by newdwr54

    on 31 Aug 2014 20:48

    45. QuaesoVeritas

    I make it that if August CET is 15.0 C or above then 2014 would tie to 1 decimal place with 2003 as the warmest Jan-Aug period in the CET record. To 2 decimal places, it would be the warmest such period on record.

    I get 11.2 for both (1 d.p.); 11.21 for 2014 and 11.20 for 2003 (2 d.p.).

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 47: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 47: 0
    Loading…
More comments

More Posts

Previous

Next