Weather

Christmas and New Year 2013 weather outlook

Stormy weather looks set to continue throughout December, with further spells of heavy rain and gale force winds.

The depression which is bringing today’s rain is deepening explosively, with a central pressure of around 930mb expected on Christmas Eve to the west of Scotland.

This won’t be a record, which was set way back in January 1884, but it’s still an exceptionally deep area of low pressure.

We will feel its force in our region on Christmas Eve, with widespread south-westerly gales.

Peak gusts will be in the range 60-70mph across more exposed parts of Yorkshire, but this is some way below the peak winds we experienced earlier in the month when 87mph was recorded at High Bradfield in South Yorkshire.

The good news is that both Christmas Day and Boxing Day will see a significant improvement in weather conditions.

For many it will be dry with sunny spells – and although a few showers are possible some of which may be wintry – most of our region will have a green Christmas with temperatures just a little below the average for late December with some frost and ice first thing in the morning.

The quieter interlude won’t last long though with another deep area of low pressure bringing further heavy rain and gales on Thursday night into Friday.

With another spell of wet and stormy weather forecast early next week, attention is likely to turn towards the Environment Agency and the risk of possible flooding with Pennine catchments becoming increasingly saturated.

On a happier note may I take this opportunity to wish all readers of my blog both here in the UK and overseas a very happy christmas and prosperous new year!

And if you want to hear the weather show christmas special which I recorded on Friday from Lapland in the Arctic circle, here's a link.

END

Comments

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  • Comment number 67. Posted by JaimeJ

    on 30 Dec 2014 19:40

    Well, the 'historically cold' winter forecast for the UK is not going well at present. Our warmist friends can take slight comfort in the fact that, at least for the moment, the UK autumn/winter (but not mean CET) is bucking the global cooling trend - I know Ed Davey will certainly be wiping the sweat from his brow in his overheated tax-payer subsidised second home probably!

    Meanwhile, looks like the Antarctic global warming expedition members will have to be airlifted off their Russian chartered ship because the third ice-breaker could not get through. Even suggestions that the ship may be stuck for years as further ice builds up in this formerly ice-free area!

    US is in the grip of freezing conditions, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Middle East, Egypt and probably a few other countries I've missed have experienced severe and unusual cold this NH winter. Siberia is unusually warm - which fact was used to generate the phoney 'warmest November on record' headline. Global sea ice extent is near setting another record. Arctic ice looks healthy. So, all in all, 2013 has been rather an Annus Horribilis for man-made global warming advocates. I'll drink to that on New Year's Eve (with ice of course!) and lets hope that Gaia continues into 2014 with her infuriating trend of confounding AGW climate modellers' expectations.

    Happy New Year all

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  • Comment number 66. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 30 Dec 2014 19:08

    Met Office now suggesting 6.5 C up to 29 Dec. Sounds about right.
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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  • Comment number 65. Posted by john_cogger

    on 30 Dec 2014 18:59

    30 days into the 100 days of snow. Not looking to good so far, though Piers is forecasting a snowmageden for New Years.

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  • Comment number 64. Posted by greensand

    on 30 Dec 2014 11:25

    62. ukpahonta

    Re potential vortex split, I wonder if it will show up here:-

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-155.78,86.17,497

    or maybe here

    http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-155.78,86.17,497

    Claims to be "updated every three hours"

    http://earth.nullschool.net/about.html

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  • Comment number 63. Posted by greensand

    on 30 Dec 2014 10:43

    62. ukpahonta

    Thanks uk, that is quite a change, previous indications were for a split late Jan early Feb. Will keep a "weather eye" on it!

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  • Comment number 62. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 30 Dec 2014 09:43

    greensand

    Model indicating vortex split in early Jan.
    http://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwf10f240.gif

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  • Comment number 61. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 30 Dec 2014 08:20

    #60 ashleyhr

    6.7 on the 25th
    6.6 on the 27th
    6.5 on the 28th

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  • Comment number 60. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 30 Dec 2014 03:07

    Dec 2013 COULD be 6.3 C for the UK as a whole (with changeable/stormy south westerlies central England tends to be slightly warmer than the UK as a whole).

    Unless I'm remembering wrong, I believe the Met Office said 6.7 C for the CET up to 28 Dec yesterday, not 6.5 C.

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  • Comment number 59. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 30 Dec 2014 02:03

    #57 ashleyhr

    ' I expect it to be slightly higher than 6.4 C', why?

    My guess is 6.4 before adjustments around 6.1 final figure putting 2013 at 9.6C, just below 2012 but you never know you could persuade me to go higher with sound argument.

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  • Comment number 58. Posted by greensand

    on 30 Dec 2014 01:58

    57. ashleyhr

    "currently it's 6.5 C (to 28 Dec)"

    Would that place it with:-

    6.5 1685
    6.5 1862
    6.5 1921
    6.5 2006

    Apologies if incorrect, link gone missing? Que!

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