Weather

A deep area of low pressure looks set to dominate our weather late in the weekend and into next week as the official start of autumn (which is the 22nd September this year, defined as the day the sun crosses the equator into the southern hemisphere) coincides nicely with the first meteorological blast of the season.

The track of this low pressure is still open to question, and has been causing real problems for forecasters in the last few days.

It's down in part to ex-hurricane Nadine which is in the mid-Atlantic near the Azores.

Computer models invariably struggle to handle these storms because such systems are relatively small but intense, and as such can be difficult to model with any consistency.

What Nadine does in the next few hours will help determine where an associated area of low pressure will develop and track, drawing in some of Nadine's warm sub-tropical air, hence the uncertainty regarding the timing and location of potentially heavy rain and strong winds for the UK.

The chart below is the best estimate of its position at midday on Monday, based on the UK Met Office Global model.



The current best estimate for our area is for the heavy rain to hold off until late Sunday, with much of next week then very unsettled, at times windy, with showers or longer spells of rain.

On a more positive note, if timings remain the same, it does mean that much of this weekend across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire will be fine and sunny, albeit cold at night with a risk of rural frost.

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Comments

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  • Comment number 46. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 28 Sept 2012 12:16

    John Marshall,

    Interesting!

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  • Comment number 45. Posted by John Marshall

    on 28 Sept 2012 11:09

    I carried out a study of the Boscastle flood and local rainfall figures were from poor coverage. In fact the rainfall figure taken for Borcastle on the day were from a separate though adjoining catchment. There were no accurate official figures for the Boscastle catchment. The nature of the storm that caused this flood means that local severe rain will not be measured even with local catchment data so making local mitigation planning difficult if not impossible. The same will probably be true for the rest of the country.

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  • Comment number 44. Posted by pablo senk

    on 27 Sept 2012 02:57

    on post 37:

    Cool first, warm later
    Posted on September 22, 2012
    by Judith Curry

    From an article in the New Scientist by Fred Pearce, written in Sept 2009:

    One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.


    “I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany.
    “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”

    Asking questions is at the heart of the scientific method, and science has been characterized as ‘organized scepticism.’
    The questions are referred to as ‘nasty’, since presumably they are inconvenient for the audience (the UN).
    Not wanting to be identified as a ‘sceptic,’ in spite of the fact that the perspective that he presents is consistent with
    with what many sceptics say. There is a ‘we’ versus ‘other people’ , in terms of who is acceptable in terms of
    asking questions. If this doesn’t define climate tribalism, I don’t know what does.
    On issues of climate projection for the next few decades and late 20th century attribution, I suspect that there is little
    that Latif and I would disagree on. The big difference is that Latif has maintained his status in the climate community that identifies itself with UN programmes (e.g. IPCC, WCRP) by insisting that he is not a sceptic. Whereas people are increasingly labeling me as a ‘denier’ because I engage with sceptical individuals from outside the UN climate community.

    (( The above should make one wonder! ))

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  • Comment number 43. Posted by greensand

    on 26 Sept 2012 21:53

    Sorry ref should be @ 41 ukpahonta!

    Matron threatening to restrict router use!

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  • Comment number 42. Posted by greensand

    on 26 Sept 2012 21:50

    @ 41 QV

    Thanks for the link, apart from the interesting relative mismatch in the hemispheres I notice "sudden stratospheric warming" is referenced again? Time to read some more.

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  • Comment number 41. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 26 Sept 2012 21:05

    'WAITING for solar fireworks to reach a grand finale next year? Um, sorry, looks like you already missed them. Structures in the sun's corona indicate that the peak in our star's latest cycle of activity has been and gone, at least in its northern hemisphere'

    http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528843.700-solar-maximum-oh-you-just-missed-it.html

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  • Comment number 40. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 26 Sept 2012 18:47

    I've just noticed that the figure of 43.23mm which I quoted in my post #36 above, was actually on the 25th of August 1986, not September.

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  • Comment number 39. Posted by greensand

    on 26 Sept 2012 15:41

    @38 QV

    "work out what that is in tonnes!"

    No thanks, but I think it might have cleared out the red shading on the following "drought map":-

    http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/static/documents/Business/Water_resources_current_situation_map_23_August_2012.pdf

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  • Comment number 38. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 26 Sept 2012 12:53

    Just thinking about it a bit more, a rainfall figure of 43.23mm over the entire area of England & Wales, is an awful lot of water.
    Perhaps someone can work out what that is in tonnes!

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  • Comment number 37. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 26 Sept 2012 12:45

    Moreover, when the weather is exceptionally cold and appears to contradict "climate change" claims, we are often told by proponents of "climate change" not to confuse weather with climate.
    However, that doesn't stop those proponents using examples of bad weather as "proof" that climate change is happening and I expect someone will do that about this weather.
    More insidious is the fact that a lot of people have been so indoctrinated by talk of "climate change" that they now automatically assume that
    bad weather such as this, is caused by "climate change".

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