Cold easterly reluctant to give way
After a prolonged spell of cold weather throughout much of February and March, dominated by high pressure to the north of the UK and easterly winds, the Atlantic will slowly try to assert itself through next week.
But there’s considerable uncertainty about the timing of any change, with easterly winds in some models reluctant to give way. For example the EC model brings an Atlantic low next week on a more southerly track, delaying the onset of any proper mild air until the following weekend.
The general consensus though is for there to be a slow change to less cold conditions from about the middle of next week across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, albeit with some rain.
March in the end, based on provisional Central England Temperature (CET) figures first started in 1659, was even colder than I first predicted, becoming the coldest since 1892 – just beating 1962.
According to the Met Office, based on their modern but much shorter UK data set which began in 1910, March was the equal second coldest (with 1947), only beaten by March 1962.
Interestingly, March 2013 was colder than any of the preceding winter months of December, January and February, for the first time since 1975.
According to the UAH satellite measure, global temperatures in March were virtually the same as in February, with an anomaly of +0.184C above the 30 year running average.
This equates to an anomaly of 0.437C above the more standard 1961-1990 measure.
It illustrates once more that despite extreme cold across the UK and much of Europe, this was not reflected globally.
Indeed other areas have been much warmer than average, including not for the first time Greenland and the Arctic.
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