Weather

A look back at autumn and forward into early winter

Climatological autumn ended this weekend, and it turned out to be a very average affair.

UK mean temperatures were slightly above average, with both rainfall and sunshine both almost exactly average.

More locally as you might expect the three monthly seasonal statistics hide some detail.

Parts of our region were very dry in November, with Leconfield in East Yorkshire one of the driest locations in the country with just 0.88ins (22.5mm) of rain which is only a third of normal.

And according to the Central England Temperature data only 27 Novembers in the last 100 years have been colder – but statistically this was largely cancelled out by the warmth of October.

November was also the sunniest since 2006.

So onto this week and after a quiet start to December, the most note-worthy weather event will be severe gales on Thursday, as cold air temporarily spreads southwards.

The gales could coincide with high tides with a risk of some local flooding along the East Coast.

As the cold air spreads from the north, the rain on Thursday may turn wintry as it clears away, with sleet and snow showers possible for a time into Friday morning.

But despite tabloid headlines to the contrary, there will not be disruptive amounts of snow, with the cold air quickly displaced eastwards.

High pressure will then re-assert itself once more across the UK during next weekend, when a lot of fine weather expected.

The theme after that is likely to focus around high pressure over the continent extending its influence over the UK, and whether it gives way to Atlantic weather systems further west.

Climatologically this set up is more common in February rather than December, a month which is often windy and at times wet.

Indeed some recent solutions suggest a cold easterly developing around mid-month.

But it’s a long way off in forecasting terms and impossible to call at this stage.

Comments

This entry is now closed for comments.

  • Comment number 36. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 9 Dec 2013 14:14

    What planet is heating up?

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 36: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 36: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 35. Posted by quake

    on 9 Dec 2013 12:38

    How can it not be the major influence on global temperature?

    What else is causing the planet to heat up? It's obviously not the Sun as that has been in a very quiet spell for almost a decade now.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 35: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 35: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 34. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 8 Dec 2013 21:49

    john_cogger

    You should rephrase, GHE, or whatever the latest reincarnation is, is not failed 'physics'. The theory that it is the major influence on global temperatures is rapidly falling apart.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 34: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 34: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 33. Posted by john_cogger

    on 8 Dec 2013 20:52

    @31 John Marshall

    Except the GHE isn't a failed theory. It's held by everyone apart from a few bloggers and unpublished/self published 'scientists'. In fact on both sides of the debate the one thing they agree on is the GHE.

    It's all a question of how warm it will get (sensitivity) and feedbacks (cooling/warming). GHE is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 33: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 33: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 32. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 8 Dec 2013 16:34

    Chris - looks as though that December easterly may have been cancelled.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 32: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 32: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 31. Posted by John Marshall

    on 8 Dec 2013 12:55

    Solar magnetic output is still falling which is pointing to a Maunder Minimum on the way. We know it had to happen, unless you are a climate alarmist tied into the GHE which is failed theory from day one in 1988 when Hansen resurrected it from a failed past. Solar output is cyclic but we are ignorant of the actual cycles anf instead of doing some real science some try to prove the unprovable: that CO2 drives climate.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 31: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 31: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 30. Posted by waikuku

    on 7 Dec 2013 08:41

    Nice to sea synop models - at least for the next 14 days - showing the westerly jet blowing out from Newfoundland. Apart from transient post cold front odd cooler day a mild type is well set - long may it last - this type will probably dominate the winter now.

    New sea defences (installed in last year) here in east lincs were well tested with only minor breach at high tide on Thursday 5 around 1900 gmt. The centre of low being far to the north and basically moving east only allowed northwesterlies which reduced impact this side of north sea. Had the track been SSE the following northeasterly would have led to a more 'spectacular' (dare I say: daily express) outcome.

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 30: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 30: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 29. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 7 Dec 2013 00:02

    Well that took some time but eventually we get:
    http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/global-warming-pause-due-to-pacific-says-trenberth.html

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 29: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 29: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 28. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 6 Dec 2013 00:58

    According to the BBC Radio 4 (extended) midnight news, most sea defences in East Anglia seem to have held out so far (though at least one more high spring tide tomorrow is still a cause for concern in various locations all along the more southern part of the English east coast).

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 28: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 28: 0
    Loading…
  • Comment number 27. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 5 Dec 2013 23:44

    If you are wondering, domestic developments along the east coast can still be followed at the BBC News website eg here:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25238120

    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of positive ratings for comment 27: 0
    • This entry is now closed for comments. Number of negative ratings for comment 27: 0
    Loading…
More comments

More Posts

Previous