A look back at autumn and forward into early winter

Climatological autumn ended this weekend, and it turned out to be a very average affair.


UK mean temperatures were slightly above average, with both rainfall and sunshine both almost exactly average.


More locally as you might expect the three monthly seasonal statistics hide some detail.


Parts of our region were very dry in November, with Leconfield in East Yorkshire one of the driest locations in the country with just 0.88ins (22.5mm) of rain which is only a third of normal.


And according to the Central England Temperature data only 27 Novembers in the last 100 years have been colder – but statistically this was largely cancelled out by the warmth of October.


November was also the sunniest since 2006.


So onto this week and after a quiet start to December, the most note-worthy weather event will be severe gales on Thursday, as cold air temporarily spreads southwards.


The gales could coincide with high tides with a risk of some local flooding along the East Coast.


As the cold air spreads from the north, the rain on Thursday may turn wintry as it clears away, with sleet and snow showers possible for a time into Friday morning.


But despite tabloid headlines to the contrary, there will not be disruptive amounts of snow, with the cold air quickly displaced eastwards.  


High pressure will then re-assert itself once more across the UK during next weekend, when a lot of fine weather expected.


The theme after that is likely to focus around high pressure over the continent extending its influence over the UK, and whether it gives way to Atlantic weather systems further west.


Climatologically this set up is more common in February rather than December, a month which is often windy and at times wet.


Indeed some recent solutions suggest a cold easterly developing around mid-month.


But it’s a long way off in forecasting terms and impossible to call at this stage.


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