Weather

Many parts of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire had their first snowfall of the winter yesterday, with coastal areas suffering the largest falls with around 10cms (4 ins) of fresh snow being reported by yesterday evening.



With high pressure developing across Scandinavia, cold air will be with us for the rest of the week and into the weekend, but for many the next couple of days will be dry, apart from occasional snow showers towards the coast.

Temperatures could easily reach -10C (14F) in rural locations where there's snow cover during the next couple of nights.

But by the end of the week and into the weekend, things will become much more interesting, as weather fronts make the first of what could be two attempts to bring less cold air in from the Atlantic, with a risk of snow and disruption to travel.

As is always the case in these situations there's a lot of uncertainty about how fast the less cold air moves north-eastwards.

Experience suggests that computer models are often too quick to replace cold continental air.

Current indications are that the first Atlantic weather front will push across our area through Friday night and into Saturday as a weakening feature, bringing some increasingly light snow.

The next more active weather front will bring heavier snow on Sunday, which will eventually turn to rain as less cold air spreads eastwards.

But to highlight the uncertainty, some solutions are quicker with the snow and bring it across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire on Friday, with others slower.

There's bound to be changes to the timing of these systems as we get nearer the event, but there's clearly a risk of disruptive snow as we head into the weekend.

Next week looks very unsettled, and although the air will be somewhat less cold, temperatures are still likely to below average, with rain at times which could easily turn to snow in places, especially over the hills.

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Comments

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  • Comment number 111. Posted by waikuku

    on 22 Jan 2013 07:41

    #110

    Absolutely agree with your comment.

    The 62/63 winter got going early in Nov 62 - lots of frosts and fogs. The winter of 2010/11 got off to a comparable start (temperature wise) but it relinquished its grip to the westerly soon after the disruptive snow around christmas/new year 2010.

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  • Comment number 110. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 22 Jan 2013 01:25

    Even if it stays cold like at present until late Feb/early March (which is currently in doubt though such happened in 1947 and 1986) there's no way this winter could be as cold overall as the 1963 winter. When I said last week that current pressure charts resembled early January 1963, I wasn't suggesting this year would be a repeat of that winter.

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  • Comment number 109. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 22 Jan 2013 01:20

    Message 87

    Sorry - I thought you meant 'politically correct' and in a sarcastic sort of way. But I now realise you meant 'Piers Corbyn'.

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  • Comment number 108. Posted by ashleyhr

    on 22 Jan 2013 01:17

    Message 87
    That's a strange sort of PC from Boris Johnson. And - considering the last 20 years - he seems to have forgotten about snowfall in 1995-96, 1996-97 and 2000-01 - prior to the last five winters. And - although there was snow in places in February 2012 - the winter season as a whole was notably mild. The current spell is pretty severe (and pretty in general) but until 13 January much of the UK had seen no snow or very little snow so far this season. It is true that London has had notable snowfalls in February 2009, November 2010, December 2010 and January 2013 but London is just one (populous) corner of the UK.

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  • Comment number 107. Posted by waikuku

    on 21 Jan 2013 21:57

    #106 . . . . . "Of course, this winter isn't over yet!".

    Agreed, but in terms of comparison to the 1962/63 winter it most definitely is.

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  • Comment number 106. Posted by QuaesoVeritas

    on 21 Jan 2013 20:09

    #82. - chris wrote:
    "The Winterwatch look back to '63 (I saw last 30 mins) was well structured. Enjoyed the chart analysis and the '7 stages'."

    I thought that while they blamed it on warming in the Pacific, they didn't call it El Nino. They also showed the jetstream, without actually calling it that.

    "Can't imagine a similar program examining a harsh UK winter in the future would make any reference/comparison to 2012/13."

    Of course, this winter isn't over yet!

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  • Comment number 105. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 21 Jan 2013 15:30

    #103 Greensand

    I seem to remember reading that it is the date that is significant as normally SSW' s don' t kick in until February. This is breaking new ground.

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  • Comment number 104. Posted by oldgifford

    on 21 Jan 2013 14:58

    I noticed this on the Guardian blog about Dieter Helm, and then it disappeared presumably because it offended the moderator or they are not interested in the facts.

    "So how accurate are our temperature records?
    In a recent experiment by the NOAA at Oak Ridge, Tennessee, they installed four temperature sensors at varying distances across a field from the laboratory complex. The experiment has only been running since October, but already they’ve found out a couple of interesting things. First, the night time temperatures are indeed higher closer to the laboratory. Second, this is true whether the wind is blowing toward or away from the laboratory. For more info see WUWT"

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/20/noaa-establishes-a-fact-about-station-siting-nighttime-temperatures-are-indeed-higher-closer-to-the-laboratory/

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  • Comment number 103. Posted by greensand

    on 21 Jan 2013 14:55

    @102. ukpahonta:

    Thanks for the links, will try to follow.

    Not sure I fully get the man’s drift:-

    “but the magnitude of this warming was severely underestimated. Records have been shattered across the board, especially at the 70 millibar level”

    But the chart shows a 79-08 max far higher at about the end of Jan:-

    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/historic-sudden-stratospheric-warming.html

    Realise that there are significant changes re day of year, but it can’t be that time constricted, can it?

    Anyhow will watch with interest

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  • Comment number 102. Posted by ukpahonta

    on 21 Jan 2013 14:29

    'This sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) was predicted a while in advance by The Weather Centre, but the magnitude of this warming was severely underestimated. Records have been shattered across the board, especially at the 70 millibar level, as shown above. The red line of observed temperatures has passed above the thin gray line, which is the record stratospheric temperature for that day. It is safe to say this winter will go down as a historic one, as far as the stratosphere goes.'
    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/historic-sudden-stratospheric-warming.html

    'Usually, sudden stratospheric warmings will come and go, and their effects will come and go as well. Warm air pushed skywards will typically dissipate when the warming event has ceased. However, this time around, warming from recent SSW's is making its way downwards, filtering through the upper stratosphere down into the lower levels of the stratosphere. This, as previously mentioned, should coerce the polar vortex into at least a small degree of weakening; the extent of which is unknown at the moment.

    If this warming filtration can persist, the polar vortex will continue to sustain very heavy damage, continuing to open the door wider for a colder back-end of winter in coming weeks.'
    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/stratospheric-warming-propagating-to.html

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