High pressure looks set to become dominant across much of the UK for the rest of November, ensuring a lot of dry, fine and settled weather.

 

Although cloud amounts are always difficult to determine in these situations, by day there should be at least some sunshine, with a risk of some frost and fog by night.

 

It won’t be entirely dry though, for example a weakening weather front around mid-week will bring a little rain from the Northwest.

 

There are indications by the end of the month and into early December that more unsettled conditions will return from the west, although in forecasting terms that’s a long way off.

 

As for winter, it’s been impossible not to have noticed some of the newspaper headlines suggesting it could be one of the coldest on record.

 

But these headlines are identical to the ones published each autumn for the last few years.

  

They were a focus of an article I wrote in November 2012, which you can read here, showing a selection of front pages from The Express all based on predictions from the same sources.  

 

So is there any truth in the headlines?

 

Readers of my blog will know that I have written many times about how a decline in solar activity over the coming years and decades could mean severe winters across the UK become more frequent.

 

But from a forecasting perspective it’s not possible to define whether any particular winter will be severe.

 

Indeed there are other important variables which help determine how any specific winter, or season, turns out.

 

This type of long range forecasting remains the holy grail of weather prediction, and headlines like the ones we have again read this autumn should be treated with extreme caution.

Loading...

More Posts

Previous